Weather can be a factor this time of year, so it makes sense to take a look at the forecasts before settling on lineups in playoff competitions. There are three outdoors games this weekend, with the biggest concern involving the one in Buffalo.
That game will be played on Sunday evening, and although we don't have an exact forecast this far out, there are some things that can be said for sure. Temperatures will be in the teens, getting down as low as 10 degrees. Scattered flurries and snow showers are expected; up to a 40 percent chance. Winds at 10-15 mph.
Wind is a concern for things like deep passes and longer field goals. I have zero interest in using either of these kickers, when there are viable options playing indoors (either half of the Commanders-Lions game) or perhaps Kansas City's Butker. The snow is a concern as well, although we have seen higher scoring games played in snow before (including in Buffalo). Sometimes slippery conditions benefit receivers, who know where they're going, over defenders who don't.
I was wondering mostly if cold temperatures would hold down scoring, and I thought I'd look at some history. Using the search tools at pro-football-reference.com, I pulled all the playoff games this century played in temperatures under 20 degrees. They have that information.
I came up with 19 games, including a pair from last year that most will remember: Pittsburgh at Buffalo, with a gametime temperature of 17 degrees, and the Miami at Kansas City game that was played in minus-4 degree weather.
Steelers-Bills was reasonably high-scoring (31-17); wouldn't necessarily have been any different played in a dome. Dolphins-KC featured a lousy game for Miami's offense (264 net yards and 1 TD), but Kansas City was a-ok: 262 passing yards, 147 rushing yards, 2 TDs and 26 points. If you sat down Rashee Rice you missed out on 130 yards and a touchdown. Tyreek Hill caught a 53-yard score for Miami. Kansas City also kicked 4 field goals; weather didn't bother their kicking game (but they were all inside 35 yards).
Anyway, of the 19 playoff games the search pulled up, I came up with 5 that were noticeably lower-scoring (under 40 total points between the teams). Brett Favre's last game for the Packers featured 43 total points, but that was an overtime game (a 23-20 loss to the Giants in the 2007 NFC championship game that I'm still not over). So I think that should probably be included among the weather-influenced lower scoring games. Although that was a really good Giants defense (they went on to beat the undefeated Patriots 17-14 in the Super Bowl in Arizona), so maybe the game would have been lower-scoring no matter where it was played.
Seven of the other 13 cold-weather games featured over 60 total points, and three featured 45-plus. Varying temperatures -- there's a difference between 18-20 degrees and 5 degrees -- but not much compelling evidence that offenses won't be able to score some points.
In the table, I bolded all the games with under 40 total points.
| COLD-WEATHER PLAYOFF GAMES, 2000-PRESENT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Temp | Teams | Result | Pts |
| 2003 | 20 | Seattle at G.B. | L 27-33 (OT) | 60 |
| 2003 | 4 | Tennessee at N.E. | L 14-17 | 31 |
| 2004 | 11 | New England at Pit. | W 41-27 | 68 |
| 2004 | 17 | Atlanta at Phi. | L 10-27 | 37 |
| 2007 | -1 | N.Y. Giants at G.B. | W 23-20 (OT) | 43 |
| 2009 | 20 | Baltimore at N.E. | W 33-14 | 47 |
| 2010 | 17 | N.Y. Jets at Pit. | L 19-24 | 43 |
| 2010 | 20 | Green Bay at Chi. | W 21-14 | 35 |
| 2012 | 13 | Baltimore at Den. | W 38-35 (2OT) | 73 |
| 2013 | 5 | San Franciso at G.B. | W 23-20 | 43 |
| 2014 | 20 | Baltimore at N.E. | L 31-35 | 66 |
| 2016 | 14 | N.Y. Giants at G.B. | L 13-38 | 51 |
| 2016 | 17 | Miami at Pit. | L 12-30 | 42 |
| 2017 | 18 | Jacksonville at Pit. | W 45-42 | 87 |
| 2018 | 19 | New England at K.C. | W 37-31 (OT) | 68 |
| 2021 | 7 | New England at Buf. | L 17-47 | 64 |
| 2021 | 15 | San Franciso at G.B. | W 13-10 | 23 |
| 2023 | 17 | Pittsburgh at Buf. | L 17-31 | 48 |
| 2023 | -4 | Miami at K.C. | L 7-26 | 33 |
My general takeaway is at least based on temperatures, I'm not going to shy away from either the Bills or Ravens offenses. Maybe longer field goals and deep passes won't be happening, but I don't think we're going to get a 13-10 game. Allen, Lamar, Shakir, Andrews...those guys should be OK. Might be more running than passing, especially for Baltimore, but that was probably going to be the case regardless.
Texans-Kansas City tomorrow looks OK. It will be 24 degrees, with no precipitation expected. Winds will be about 12 mph.
For Rams-Eagles, the forecast calls for temperatures in the low 30s, and there's a chance of snow showers during the game. Winds of around 11 mph. Forecast isn't as precise at this point; it's not certain if there will be snow during the game, or primarily after the game is over. But conditions could favor running games over passing games, which is probably how the Eagles want to play anyway.
--Andy Richardson