I don’t like the matchup for the Bills this weekend. They could have some issues with time of possession, with the Ravens likely being able to run the ball, and that Baltimore defense has gotten dramatically better as the season has progressed.
Earlier in the season, the Ravens appeared to have the worst pass defense in the league. They gave up 820 passing yards, with 9 TDs, in a pair of games against Cincinnati. They gave up 610 passing yards, with 4 TDs, in upset losses against the Raiders and Browns. Baltimore allowed an average of 295 passing yards in its first 10 games, the most in the league, along with a league-worst 22 TD passes.
Using standard fantasy scoring, Baltimore’s pass defense was 2 points worse than any other after the first 10 games.
| PASSING PRODUCTION ALLOWED, FIRST 10 GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pct | Yd/G | TD | Int | Pts/G |
| NY Jets | 59.9% | 168.3 | 7 | 2 | 11.2 |
| Philadelphia | 61.5% | 173.2 | 9 | 7 | 12.3 |
| Chicago | 62.5% | 197.4 | 7 | 9 | 12.7 |
| Miami | 64.4% | 199.0 | 10 | 6 | 14.0 |
| NY Giants | 69.8% | 184.2 | 12 | 1 | 14.0 |
| Tennessee | 64.1% | 164.6 | 15 | 3 | 14.2 |
| San Francisco | 63.6% | 197.2 | 11 | 11 | 14.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 61.1% | 214.5 | 9 | 11 | 14.3 |
| Denver | 66.6% | 192.2 | 12 | 7 | 14.4 |
| Detroit | 63.3% | 232.7 | 7 | 14 | 14.4 |
| LA Chargers | 62.9% | 206.6 | 12 | 9 | 15.1 |
| New England | 65.4% | 209.0 | 12 | 4 | 15.3 |
| Arizona | 68.4% | 218.5 | 11 | 5 | 15.3 |
| New Orleans | 63.6% | 244.6 | 8 | 12 | 15.4 |
| Green Bay | 65.8% | 207.5 | 13 | 10 | 15.6 |
| Buffalo | 68.8% | 212.9 | 13 | 11 | 15.8 |
| Washington | 65.9% | 182.2 | 17 | 4 | 15.9 |
| Cleveland | 61.4% | 211.0 | 14 | 2 | 16.2 |
| Kansas City | 66.1% | 212.2 | 14 | 6 | 16.2 |
| Seattle | 66.7% | 210.9 | 15 | 7 | 16.5 |
| Dallas | 67.1% | 214.7 | 15 | 6 | 16.7 |
| Houston | 54.4% | 174.7 | 21 | 13 | 17.1 |
| Las Vegas | 68.7% | 202.7 | 18 | 5 | 17.3 |
| Indianapolis | 68.9% | 238.4 | 14 | 8 | 17.5 |
| Minnesota | 63.1% | 234.8 | 15 | 16 | 17.7 |
| Cincinnati | 65.9% | 220.2 | 17 | 6 | 17.8 |
| Atlanta | 70.3% | 223.4 | 17 | 7 | 18.0 |
| LA Rams | 66.4% | 223.3 | 18 | 10 | 18.4 |
| Carolina | 68.7% | 226.8 | 18 | 5 | 18.5 |
| Jacksonville | 69.9% | 261.2 | 19 | 5 | 20.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 68.6% | 264.1 | 20 | 5 | 21.2 |
| Baltimore | 65.6% | 294.9 | 22 | 6 | 23.5 |
But it’s a different defense now. They’ve made lineup changes, most notably removing safeties Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson. Those guys have been great with other teams in the past, but they were disasters this year. Kyle Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington are starting at safety now. Hamilton is one of the best defensive players in the league, while Washington (a former practice squad player who hardly played in his first three seasons) has held up.
Other guys are also playing well, with the defense in general coming together. In its last seven games, the Ravens have allowed an average of only 172 passing yards (fewest in the league), and with a league-low 5 TD passes allowed. Remarkably, the defense that was statistically the worst in the first 10 games has been best since that time.
Admittedly, they’ve been some lesser quarterbacks of late – Bailey Zappe, and the Giants using a tandem of Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle. But they locked down C.J. Stroud in Houston and held Justin Herbert to only 218 yards in LA. Russell Wilson (who was played credible ball earlier) wasn’t effective in any of his three games against them. The Eagles won in Baltimore, but with Jalen Hurts passing for only 118 yards.
| PASSING PRODUCTION ALLOWED, LAST 7 GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pct | Yd/G | TD | Int | Pts/G |
| Baltimore | 59.5% | 171.6 | 5 | 6 | 11.4 |
| Washington | 57.1% | 199.9 | 8 | 3 | 14.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 63.0% | 215.1 | 7 | 2 | 14.8 |
| Arizona | 69.0% | 212.7 | 9 | 4 | 15.8 |
| Philadelphia | 63.1% | 175.6 | 13 | 6 | 16.2 |
| Tennessee | 69.8% | 195.4 | 12 | 8 | 16.6 |
| Seattle | 63.3% | 213.4 | 11 | 6 | 17.0 |
| Green Bay | 69.4% | 226.1 | 10 | 7 | 17.0 |
| Kansas City | 65.7% | 228.3 | 10 | 7 | 17.1 |
| LA Chargers | 68.0% | 207.3 | 12 | 6 | 17.2 |
| San Francisco | 68.7% | 186.6 | 14 | 0 | 17.3 |
| LA Rams | 63.9% | 222.9 | 11 | 3 | 17.4 |
| Cleveland | 62.4% | 214.4 | 12 | 2 | 17.6 |
| Houston | 64.4% | 238.6 | 10 | 6 | 17.6 |
| NY Jets | 66.1% | 227.4 | 11 | 5 | 17.7 |
| Minnesota | 67.9% | 252.3 | 9 | 8 | 17.8 |
| New Orleans | 59.7% | 229.9 | 11 | 2 | 17.8 |
| Las Vegas | 62.4% | 235.6 | 11 | 5 | 18.1 |
| Chicago | 67.4% | 247.3 | 10 | 2 | 18.1 |
| Miami | 63.1% | 227.4 | 12 | 4 | 18.2 |
| Indianapolis | 70.0% | 216.4 | 13 | 8 | 18.3 |
| Jacksonville | 63.0% | 251.9 | 10 | 1 | 18.3 |
| Dallas | 69.4% | 223.0 | 13 | 7 | 18.6 |
| NY Giants | 68.9% | 248.3 | 11 | 4 | 18.7 |
| Denver | 62.8% | 261.4 | 10 | 8 | 18.8 |
| Cincinnati | 63.6% | 228.1 | 13 | 9 | 18.8 |
| Detroit | 57.9% | 260.1 | 11 | 2 | 19.3 |
| New England | 64.3% | 215.1 | 15 | 3 | 19.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 71.8% | 247.3 | 14 | 6 | 20.4 |
| Carolina | 66.8% | 221.7 | 17 | 4 | 20.8 |
| Buffalo | 68.1% | 244.9 | 15 | 5 | 20.8 |
| Atlanta | 69.2% | 226.1 | 17 | 5 | 21.0 |
Which brings us to Josh Allen. He’s been great in the playoffs, but I don’t see him putting up pinball numbers this week. Weather could make it more difficult to connect on downfield passes, and the Bills don’t really have a difference-making receiver. (I actually didn’t love the way Allen played last week, with him saving his stat line with a couple of unlikely connections in the second half – I was expecting a lot more.)
With his run-pass game, Allen is still a contender to be the leading quarterback of the week, but I don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and the other top options.
—Ian Allan