Starting pitcher wins correlate with team success, and these 12 teams' rotations show wins upside.
Pitcher wins can be tough to come by these days, with limited pitch counts, quick hooks, and an overall limited number of innings. My past analysis correlated starting pitcher wins with team wins. and that remains a quick an easy way to assess the category for finding draft sleepers.
However, there are more complications in today’s baseball as teams like the Dodgers project six-man rotations and actively limit pitcher workloads for injury reasons.
Last season saw only 11 pitchers with 15-plus wins, and eight of those pitchers were on playoff teams. Extending the criteria further, 20 of 33 pitchers with at least 12 wins made the playoffs.
As we mine for wins sleepers in 2025, below is a list of the top 10 projected teams based on win over/under at FanDuel Sportsbook. Granted, these odds will change as more moves are made this offseason, but we do now have a general idea of the top projected teams. Like average draft position in fantasy baseball, we can use these odds as a guide to predicting baseball’s best teams in 2025.
Breaking down these 12 teams’ current starting rotations, some potential sleepers for wins stand out.
Dodgers 104.5
Braves 93.5
Yankees 93.5
Mets 91.5
Phillies 91.5
Padres 88.5
Orioles 88.5
Astros 86.5
Cubs 85.5
Red Sox 85.5
Diamondbacks 85.5
Rangers 85.5
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers super team doesn’t leave much room to find players at a discount, and the expected six-man rotation also limits opportunities. Still, the injury returns of Tony Gonsolin (NFBC ADP 558) and Dustin May (539) could provide value if and when they crack the starting rotation.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta hopes for an eventually Big Three of Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, and Spencer Schwellenbach, pending health. Beyond that trio, that bottom of the rotation could be filled by some end-game names like Grant Holmes (519), Ian Anderson (696), Davis Daniel (750) and upside minor league arms such as AJ Smith-Shawver (601) and Huston Waldrep (703).
New York Yankees
Luis Gil was last year’s big wins find with 15 wins, plus other major contributions. The Yankees top six of Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and Marcus Stroman doesn’t leave much room for wins profit. Perhaps former Pirates starter JT Brubaker (750) will get a chance to start at some point as he returns from injury, and top prospects Will Warren (712) and Clayton Beeter (748) are also worth tracking.
New York Mets
The Mets roster appears unfinished, but Vegas likes it already after the additions of Juan Soto and multiple pitchers. Kodai Senga is the only starting pitcher going in the first 150 picks, while Sean Manaea is coming off an excellent season. The backend of the rotation could be filled by potential values like Frankie Montas (424), David Peterson (484), Clay Holmes (367), and Tylor Megill (562).
Philadelphia Phillies
The stability of Philly’s rotation was impressive last season, leaving limited room for a “sleeper.” If healthy, newcomer Jesus Luzardo (362) could be in that conversation, but his history makes him a risk. Top prospect Andrew Painter (435) is also interesting, though he might not contribute much in the first half as he returns from Tommy John surgery.
San Diego Padres
Dylan Cease and Michael King are coming off outstanding seasons, but the rest of the Padres rotation could become a buying opportunity. Of course, it remains to be seen how the rotation will actually shake out, with the unproven Randy Vasquez and Matt Waldron penciled in currently. Yu Darvish (227) comes at a discount after missing time last season, and Adrian Morejon (669) has been mentioned as a potential starter.
Baltimore Orioles
After the loss of Corbin Burnes, the Orioles have made incremental improvements with the additions of Charlie Morton (592) and Tomoyuki Sugano (414). These pitchers present major buying opportunities despite questions about age and strikeouts. Elsewhere, Dean Kremer could be a find at pick 545, and the team is hopeful Trevor Rogers (642) will show more velocity. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott could also be rotation contributors this season.
Houston Astros
The Astros were full of rotation treasures last season, with Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti surprising, while Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown had strong seasons in spite of early hiccups. The return of Luis Garcia (542) and addition of Hayden Wesneski (639) present two very interesting possibilities as late-round buys.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have built their rotation depth out this offseason with the additions of Matthew Boyd (394) and Colin Rea (672), both offering value at reasonable cost. The team is also loaded with starting pitcher candidates at Triple-A, with Jordan Wicks (726) and Ben Brown (541) helping last season and top prospect Cade Horton (679) an X-factor if he can recover from a shoulder injury.
Boston Red Sox
The additions of Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler move the needle in Boston, but also provide minimal potential profit in a starting five that also includes Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford. If the rotation needs reinforcements, Triple-A pitchers Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, and Quinn Priester could be in-season buys for wins.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona has spent big on starters since last offseason, with Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, and now Corbin Burnes on board. The team still has Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, while Brandon Pfaadt’s ADP (182) shows the optimism remains in his corner. Montgomery (515) appears to be the cheapest option, but he’s been mentioned in trade rumors.
Texas Rangers
Texas might have work to do in the bullpen, but the starting rotation looks in great shape after re-signing Nathan Eovaldi. The returns of Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle from injury show nice upside, while Jon Gray (623) is also coming at a discount. Cody Bradford (412) could fill the backend, and top prospects Kumar Rocker (324) and Jack Leiter (627) offer interesting upside across the board.
--Seth Trachtman