We've looked at the NFC game, now it's on to the AFC. Starting with the visiting underdog, the Buffalo Bills. Is this the year they get the Kansas City monkey off their backs?
BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY:
Overview: You could say there's some recent history. Kansas City has knocked the Bills out of three of the past four postseasons, with the last two by 6 (in overtime) and 3 points. The Bills have won all four regular-season meetings the last four years; yay? Neither team, at least, should be intimidated by the matchup, or doubt that they can make the necessary plays to get to a Super Bowl. Buffalo's last trip to the Super Bowl, after the 1993 season, came after the Bills beat a Joe Montana-led Kansas City team 30-13 in the AFC Championship. … Kansas City is favored by 1.5-2.0 points, with an over-under of 47.5. A little closer and just a shade lower-scoring than expectations for the NFC game. … The forecast calls for temperatures around 30 degrees, with just a small (4 percent) change of snow, and light winds (6 mph).
Bills: Can Buffalo's top-10 offense consistently move the ball and score touchdowns against Kansas City's top-10 defense? That's the key question that will determine if the Bills finally get over the Reid-Mahomes hump. This is a different situation than two of the previous three playoff meetings (which featured 62 and 78 total points). It's similar to last year (a 27-24 Kansas City win), but this is probably a better KC defense. Buffalo won the regular-season meeting 30-21, but that one was 16-14 entering the fourth quarter, and Buffalo's clinching touchdown came on a fourth-down Josh Allen scramble with under 3 minutes to play. That was one of just two games all season (disregarding Week 18) where Kansas City allowed more than 2 touchdowns, and one of just four allowing more than 20 points. The Bills averaged 3.75 touchdowns in their meaningful games, but we're figuring at least a touchdown less than that here. Whether or not they get that third TD will probably determine if they advance to the Super Bowl.
Josh Allen has put up big numbers in this matchup all along. In the last four regular-season wins he averaged 285 passing yards, with 8 TDs, plus another 45 rushing yards per game and 3 TDs on the ground. An average of 267 passing yards with 7 TDs in the three playoff meetings, plus an additional 67 rushing yards per game, and 2 TDs, on the ground. Point is that the difference in the outcome on the scoreboard has never been about Kansas City's defense limiting Allen too much. He'll get his numbers, and this being a better defense than in the past might mean his passing will be down a little, but this being a playoff game suggests he'll be doing more than usual as a runner. The two NFC quarterbacks typically offer similar pass-run potential, but Allen's been doing it against top-quality opposition for longer than Jayden Daniels, and he's healthier (and with better passing numbers for a longer time) than Jalen Hurts. Good as Kansas City's defense was during the season, it was vulnerable at times to the pass (16th), and it's held Allen under 55 rushing yards just twice in the last seven meetings (32 yards in each of the lesser performances). Allen also comes off his best season by a wide margin in terms of both interceptions (6) and sacks (14). Buffalo may not win, but Allen looks like the best bet in fantasy leagues this week.
It's a tough matchup for James Cook and the ground game, with Kansas City 8th against the run during the season. But this defense has been more good than great against the run in most recent games, against committed ground games or quality running backs. Cleveland (139 yards) and Pittsburgh (202) were able to move the ball on the ground against this defense. Joe Mixon carried 18 times for 88 yards and a score last week, with Houston going for 149. Cook went for only 20 yards in the regular-season win, but scored twice that day and caught 5 short passes (very short: just 7 yards). But with Kansas City more concerned about Allen, Cook could find some holes at times. It's a committee these days, at least in terms of playing time. He's played fewer than half the snaps in seven of eight (just over half against Baltimore last week). But he's still the main ballcarrier, with 40 carries for 187 yards and a touchdown the last two games, and an additional 3 for 15 as a receiver. Ty Johnson has 14 carries and 3 receptions in those games, for an average of 55 total yards, with 1 TD. An option in deeper leagues, and they've been using him in the passing game for a while (12 catches and 2 TDs in his last seven), but a secondary player (18 total yards in the earlier meeting). Ray Davis punched in a short touchdown against Baltimore, and that could show up again; the 220-pounder has 30 pounds on Cook and 10 on Johnson. But the rookie's games with double-digit touches were in blowouts or with Cook sidelined; a touchdown-or-bust option.
Khalil Shakir will almost certainly lead Buffalo in receptions; it's conceivable he'll lead his position this week. His 76 receptions during the year were at least 8 more than any wideout still playing but Terry McLaurin (82, in two more games). But there are 5 wide receivers and two tight ends still playing who caught more touchdowns (4). But with 6 catches for 61-67 yards in each playoff game, you can feel pretty good you'll be getting double-digit points with him. He also caught 8 for 70 on 12 targets (twice as many as anyone else) in the regular-season win. Buffalo's other wide receivers are a sketchy bunch -- talented, but uncertain to be reliably targeted. Amari Cooper caught 6 for 95 in the shootout with the Rams, noteworthy because it's as many catches as he's had in his other five most recent games combined. Keon Coleman drew the controversial pass interference before the half last week to set up a touchdown putting the Bills up 21-10. He's caught 9 passes and 1 TD in his last six games. Mack Hollins leads the team with 5 TD receptions, making him worth a dice-roll in TD-only formats. He averages under 2 catches per game. Curtis Samuel had a big game in the playoff win over Denver (3 for 68, TD). Just 5 catches for 25 yards in his other four most recent games. Samuel had one of his best games (5 for 58, TD) in the earlier meeting -- Cooper and Hollins each caught 2 balls, while Coleman was sidelined -- so perhaps there was something they liked about the matchup. But risky to count on him having a sizable role again.
The tight ends are unlikely to pay off. Dalton Kincaid averaged 3.4 catches for 35 yards during the season, and 2 for 29 through two playoff games. When he missed the earlier meeting Dawson Knox caught 4 for 40, which is probably a reasonable total for the position this week. Knox averaged just over a catch per game when Kincaid was available. Tight ends caught just 5 touchdowns against this defense.
Tyler Bass has rebounded nicely from a midseason slump. The last five games he's made all 8 of his field goals and 14 of 15 extra points. He's facing a defense that allowed only 24 field goals during the season, 2nd-fewest (to Buffal0) of the teams still playing. But the Bills needing to settle for field goals at times in a tough game that could go either way seems very possible.
The Bills Defense could stand to come up big for a change in one of these games. Josh Allen can't do everything, and the Bills getting some sacks and coming up with a loose football or two would help. They were below-average in sacks during the season (39), but 3rd in takeaways (32), and exceeded expectations against Baltimore (2 sacks, 3 takeaways). Patrick Mahomes is a tough nut to crack but did take 3 sacks last week, and threw 11 interceptions during the season. He was a slightly better matchup during the season than Allen (although numbers look a little better in the NFC game). Buffalo doesn't look compelling in the return game.
Next: Kansas City, and Championship Week Player rankings.