Fantasy Index Weekly's publishing schedule is complete, but we're previewing this weekend's games right here. Yesterday we looked at the NFC road team, Washington; now we turn to the favored home team, Philadelphia.
Eagles: The Eagles had the league's most conservative offense during the season, ranking 2nd in rushing and 30th in passing. They attempted 67 more runs and 29 fewer passes than any other team. And here they face one of the most lopsided defenses: 4th against the pass, 29th against the run. In the two regular-season meetings they leaned into that, averaging 188 yards passing and 220 yards rushing, with 5 touchdowns on the ground and 1 through the air. Should be more of the same here, with the Eagles looking to run their way to their second Super Bowl in three years, probably scoring 3-plus touchdowns along the way.
Jalen Hurts opened the win over the Rams with a 44-yard touchdown run. He closed it with a knee injury that factored into him taking 7 sacks and a safety, mostly handing the ball off and completing a few short, safe passes on his successful plays. There's little doubt he'll play, but 40-yard touchdown runs should be off the menu, and even their beloved Tush Push plays might be shelved; the last thing they'll want is that knee getting twisted in the middle of an ugly scrum. Hurts during the season averaged 194 yards passing and 42 yards rushing, with 32 total touchdowns (18 pass, 14 run) in 14 games. He was sidelined early in the loss at Washington, but passed for 221 and ran for 39, with a touchdown, in the home win. With the knee injury, that rushing production should be dramatically less, and passing could also be down; Hurts didn't look like he could move at all at the end of the Rams game, and they won't want him taking a lot of hits from this 11th-ranked pass rush (43 sacks). If we're overestimating the knee issue -- if, for example, reports are that Hurts is practicing fully this week -- we'll move his numbers up some before the full player rankings are posted on Friday morning. But between the injury and the nature of the offense, the feeling is that he'll put up the worst numbers of the four quarterbacks still playing. (If the Eagles need to use Kenny Pickett for some of this one, as they did in the loss at Washington, the offense would still be run-heavy; Pickett threw for 143 and a score in that game.)
Saquon Barkley, in contrast, will likely outperform any two running backs from the other three teams. There's the concern that Washington will be loading up to slow him down, a concern enhanced by Hurts' anticipated physical limitations (how much will Washington need to respect the Eagles passing game, or Hurts himself scrambling?). But that's presumably been a defensive goal most weeks, and Barkley has finished under 100 rushing yards just twice in the last 13 games. He ran for 146 yards and 2 TDs in the home win against this defense, and 150 and 2 TDs in the road loss. Washington didn't have to account for Hurts in that latter game: he was knocked out after just 12 plays. Only three teams allowed more rushing yards during the season than Washington (137 per week) and only 10 allowed more touchdowns (18). They held Tampa Bay to 101 yards in that playoff game, but Detroit went for 201 and 3 TDs last week. As noted, if the ball winds up on the 1-yard-line this week, seems a little more likely it will be Barkley carrying it than Hurts. While the Eagles didn't take advantage of Barkley's considerable receiving ability for most of the season (just 2.1 catches for 17 yards per week), that could change some here, given Hurts' compromised mobility. Barkley caught 4 for 27 last week, and 2 for 52 in the home win over this opponent. Kenneth Gainwell is a change-of-pace, with 3-4 carries and about a reception per game most weeks; unlikely he's much of a factor.
If Washington is loading up to stop the run, and Hurts is being kept in the pocket, there's the potential for more short passes directed to the wide receivers. It's a narrow target grouping, with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith each averaging 5.2 receptions in an offense that's completing a total of 17.8 passes per game; that's nearly 60 percent of the catches. That duo also accounts for 78 percent of the receiving yards (83 per week for Brown, 64 for Smith), and each caught 7-8 touchdowns (no other player caught more than 2 TDs). But despite that favorable share, both have been underused of late. Brown has 3 catches for 24 yards in the two playoff games, while Smith has 4 catches in each, but for a total of 76 yards. Using either in a lineup anticipates a passing game that Philadelphia hasn't needed to employ. Out of respect for what Washington's offense has been doing lately, and the idea that perhaps its defense will be able to slow down the ground game at times -- and the reality that Hurts should be sticking in the pocket more often -- we're thinking both wideouts will be doing a little more in this game. Brown caught 13 passes for an average of 81 yards in the two games, with 1 TD, while Smith caught 10 for 80. But each player's better game came in the road shootout, and with a different quarterback. The targets and catches there are should be dominated by these players, but in a lesser overall projection, neither looks great. On their behalf, the other teams still playing will make more use of No. 3 and 4 receivers. Jahan Dotson (former Commander) caught only 19 passes all season, and that's still nearly three times as many as any other wide receiver on the roster. Even in the shootout at Washington, no other wideout even had a pass thrown his way (23 targets for Brown and Smith, 2 for the running backs).
Dallas Goedert missed the game in Washington, catching 5 for 61 in the home win. He's also outperformed the wide receivers in both playoff games, catching 4 passes in each contest for an average of 52 yards, with 1 touchdown. And Washington has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends (9) than wide receivers (7) over its last 15 contests. Would not be surprising if Goedert is Philadelphia's most productive pass catcher this week. Grant Calcaterra shouldn't be a factor, catching only 3 passes in the last eight games Goedert has suited up for (not even targeted at Washington even with Goedert sidelined).
Washington allowed at least 3 more field goals than any of the other three teams and 5 more extra points than anyone but Buffalo; that's a plus for Jake Elliott. He's kicked 3 field goals in each playoff game, and kicked 6 (on 9 attempts) in the series against this opponent; 23 points in those two games. Add in that Philadelphia is the most likely winner this week (based on the betting lines) and the possibility that more of the Eagles' drives end in field goals (with their quarterback playing hurt), and Elliott looks like the best of the kickers still playing.
Jayden Daniels took 47 sacks during the season, 9 more than any other quarterback still playing. That's a plus for the Eagles Defense. But they got him just once the last time they saw him, and Daniels has been sacked just once while attempting 66 passes the last two weeks. He's been unusually poised in his first postseason, not turning it over in either game (9 interceptions on the season). Philadelphia did have 3 sacks in the home meeting, and 3 interception in the two games, but is missing one of its key defenders (Nakobe Dean) and another (Quinyon Mitchell) will be playing through a shoulder injury if he plays at all. Washington lost just 7 fumbles during the season (more than the two AFC teams combined, at least). But with the Eagles 6th in takeaways during the season (26) and 13th in sacks (41), they grade out a little better this week than the other three defenses. Cooper DeJean had a 31-yard punt return during the season, but no longer ones in either postseason game (and was fortunate to recover his own fumble on a punt last week).
Next: Buffalo at Kansas City.