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Saquon Barkley

Top back facing underperforming run defense

I'm seeing some sentiment for the Eagles knocking off Kansas City in next weekend's Super Bowl. I've already said that I can't see betting against Reid/Mahomes until someone proves they can beat them in a meaningful game, but I've been wrong before. There are vulnerabilities.

One that seems to stand out, looking more so when you consider the Eagles have the league's best running back in Saquon Barkley, is the Kansas City run defense. Barely over a month ago, Kansas City ranked 3rd in the NFL defending the run, allowing just 88 yards per week. It's not that good right now.

Since that time -- and even if we set aside the Week 18 game against Denver, where Kansas City didn't bother showing up -- this run defense has allowed an average of 144 rushing yards per week in its last five games (Weeks 15-17, and two playoff games), with 5 TDs. That would be a bottom-5 number.

Table shows the lead opposing running backs in those five contests (a tandem from both Cleveland and Pittsburgh). Only Joe Mixon (in the first meeting) didn't do much, but he was very good in the playoff rematch. Six of the seven runners averaged at least 4.6 yards per attempt; three managed at least 6.5. None of them is on the level of Barkley, who averaged 5.8 yards per attempt during the season.

RBS VERSUS KANSAS CITY, LAST FIVE GAMES
PlayerAttYardsAvgTD
Chubb, Cle.9414.60
Ford, Cle.78412.01
Mixon, Hou.14574.10
Harris, Pit.13745.70
Warren, Pit.11716.50
Mixon, Hou.18884.91
Cook, Buf.13856.52

Is that enough to say that the Eagles are going to spring the (mild) upset? Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points, and the line hasn't moved, so people have been betting both sides. Hard to say. Steve Spagnuolo will presumably be cooking up something to slow Barkley down, and the Eagles will also need to stop Patrick Mahomes at critical moments, which teams generally haven't been able to do in recent years.

But the game's best running back against a run defense that hasn't been as good lately as it was for most of the season seems promising. Maybe it will really be a Super Bowl.

--Andy Richardson

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