Overview: Remarkably, these teams have combined to lose just one meaningful game since Week 4. Kansas City lost at Buffalo in Week 11 (they rested starters for their Week 18 loss at Denver). Philadelphia lost at Washington in Week 16, but their quarterback was sidelined in the first quarter that day. Both teams won the championship game rematches.
The last meeting was in Kansas City during the 2023 season, with Philadelphia winning a defensive-oriented game, 21-17. The more famous meeting, of course, was in Super Bowl LVII in Arizona, with Kansas City winning a 38-35 shootout on a last-second field goal. The rosters are a little different (the Eagles going from Miles Sanders to Saquon Barkley at running back is the biggest change), but a lot of the key starters on both sides are the same. Kansas City also won a higher-scoring game in Philadelphia during the 2021 season, 42-30. That was Jalen Hurts' first year as Philadelphia's starter. … Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points, with an over-under of 48.5. It's come down a little since opening at 50.5, though the spread itself has stayed the same. The game will be played at the Superdome, so no weather issues.
Philadelphia: The raw numbers favor the Eagles. During the season they were statistically better on offense, both total yards (9th versus 16th) and scoring (7th versus 15th), and also on defense (1st in yards and 2nd in points allowed, compared to 9th and 4th for Kansas City). They were more impressive in the playoffs, especially during a blowout win in the NFC Championship, while Kansas City edged Buffalo in a game that involved some controversy over officiating. Season rankings are influenced by differing schedules, of course, but an Eagles win would not be surprising (they had a 10-point lead at halftime in the game two years ago). But seemingly a below-average situation for the offense. Setting aside Week 18, when Kansas City rested everyone, they allowed more than 2 touchdowns just three times all season: once against Tampa Bay, and in both Buffalo meetings. The Eagles offense is strong enough to think they'll be scoring 3 touchdowns, but that's probably their ceiling.
Saquon Barkley is the key difference from the previous Super Bowl meeting, a 2,000-yard rusher who's actually upped his game in the playoffs. The last three weeks he's averaged 22 carries for 147 yards, with 5 touchdowns, with an additional 7 receptions for 35 yards. The Steelers (in a 14-point loss) are the only team to hold Barkley under 100 rushing yards in the last 10 games. Kansas City finished the year ranked 8th in run defense, but they haven't been quite that tough over the past month. In their last five games (setting aside the Week 18 exhibition-like affair at Denver) this defense has allowed an average of 144 rushing yards, with 5 TDs. Some of that is quarterback rushing, but six of the seven running backs in prominent roles averaged at least 4.6 yards per attempt, while five ran for more than 70 yards. The small negatives with Barkley include not being a huge part of the passing game (just 13 receptions in his last eight contests) and the reality that his quarterback is more likely to account for any 1-yard touchdowns. But unlikely this defense is holding him much below his usual, which during the season was about 143 total yards and a touchdown per week.
If Barkley needs a breather, it will be either Kenneth Gainwell or Will Shipley. Gainwell suffered a concussion in the NFC Championship, and didn't practice at all last week. He was also listed with a knee injury, so even assuming two weeks is enough time for him to clear the concussion protocol, he won't necessarily be available. But whether it's him or the rookie, unlikely that player gets on the field for more than a handful of snaps. There's nothing to save Barkley for now.
Jalen Hurts will presumably do less as a passer if Barkley is putting up good numbers. Hurts passed for even 200 yards just twice in his last seven games, one of which was with the Steelers holding Barkley to just 65 rushing yards. The other was in the NFC Championship (246 yards with 1 TD), with the Eagles rolling up 459 net yards and 55 points. So barring a blowout -- but assuming a competitive game, with Kansas City's offense doing its part -- we're thinking about 225 passing yards and a touchdown from Hurts. He averaged 207 during the season (setting aside the game he was knocked out of), with 18 touchdown passes in 14 games. Kansas City ranked 16th in passing defense (14th if you want to set aside Week 18), so not a daunting matchup. Average numbers in both sacks (39) and interceptions (13), while Hurts was similar for sacks (38) but threw only 5 interceptions. It's the running (and being pushed) that makes Hurts look better than his opponent in typical fantasy formats. He averaged 42 yards and almost exactly a touchdown per week on the ground in the regular season, and 41 yards per game and 4 TDs in three playoff contests. Kansas City's defense -- which granted wasn't as good -- didn't do much to slow Hurts down two years ago, with him passing for 304 yards and a score and running for another 70, with 3 TDs. That Philadelphia offense didn't get nearly as much from its running backs (three players combined to rush for just 45 yards). But probably typical numbers as both a passer and runner for Hurts.
Despite the below-average passing projection, both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith look solid. Even with the offense averaging just 207 passing yards during the season, Brown averaged 83 yards in his 13 games, with 7 touchdowns, and Smith 64 yards and 8 TDs in his 13. It's a narrow target grouping, with Jahan Dotson averaging just over a catch and 13 yards per game. With each of the top 2, there's the chance of them being forgotten if the running game is clicking. Brown totaled 3 receptions for 24 yards in the first two playoff games. Smith was just a little better, catching 4 passes in each game for an average of 38 yards. But Kansas City's offense should be doing more than the Packers did, and more than the Rams managed for most of that game (before a near-comeback in the fourth quarter). With Washington's offense scoring some last week, Brown caught 6 for 96 with a touchdown. Smith was at just 4 for 45, but also closed out the regular season by catching 23 passes for an average of 93 yards and with 4 touchdowns in his final three games. The potential of one of these players getting left out of the action is a concern, but that also applies to the Kansas City pass catchers. Hard to come up with a potential top 3 wideouts from this game without including both. Smith has caught 6-7 passes in each of his three career meetings, for 99, 100 and 122 yards in three previous meetings with this opponent. Brown caught 6 for 96 with a touchdown in the Super Bowl two years ago, but just 1 for 8 in the regular-season win that year.
Dallas Goedert is the other key pass catcher, with the potential of outperforming some (most?) of the wide receivers in this game. He has more catches (15) and yards (188) than either Brown or Smith, and the same number of touchdowns (1) as the two combined. He caught 6 for 60 in the Super Bowl two years ago and 5 for 56 with a score in his only other game against this defense (2021). Just 5 touchdowns by tight ends against Kansas City during the season, but Dalton Schultz (4 for 63) had a good game in the Divisional Round. While it would be a bold move to consider him over Travis Kelce, and we're not advising it, Kelce wasn't a factor in Kansas City's last game (2 for 19), while Goedert has either caught 4-plus passes or scored in eight straight contests.
Second tight end Grant Calcaterra is not a viable option, unless Goedert should get injured during the game. (Goedert has missed some practice time due to an ankle injury, but it hasn't kept him off the field in the playoffs; 80-95 percent of the snaps in all three games.) Calcaterra caught 24 passes during the regular season, only 6 of which came in the 10 games Goedert played in. Calcaterra has a single 4-yard catch in three postseason games.
Only five teams during the season allowed fewer field goals than Kansas City (24). Philadelphia was middle of the pack in kicking them (28), a lot more likely to be kicking extra points (47). And Jake Elliott is the less reliable of the two kickers in this game, missing 8 field goals in the regular season (successful on 28 of 36). He's missed just one in the playoffs, but has missed 3 extra points in three games. When push comes to shove, Harrison Butker looks like the better investment this week.
The Eagles Defense also seems like the 2nd-best choice. Kansas City turned it over just 14 times during the season, with Patrick Mahomes throwing 11 interceptions, but none in his last eight games (including the playoffs). Kansas City also lost just 3 fumbles in the regular season, plus another in the postseason. Only five teams had more takeaways than the Eagles (26), but a tough matchup for collecting them. Mahomes took 36 sacks during the season, and 5 more in two playoff games, but Jalen Hurts was more pass-rush friendly, taking 38 sacks in 15 regular season games and 11 more in the playoffs. The Eagles scored just one defensive touchdown this season and haven't scored on a kick or punt return since 2020.
Tomorrow: Kansas City.