Overshadowed in discussions of threepeats, officiating controversies and greatest ever debates is the weird reality that Kansas City's offense just hasn't been that great. Ten teams scored more touchdowns during the season, and 14 scored more points. And now they're facing the best defense they've faced all year: no one allowed fewer yards (278 per week) than Philadelphia, and only the Chargers allowed fewer points (17.8).
But Kansas City lost just one game all year that they made any effort to win. In every other game, their offense was good enough to outscore their opponent. For the purposes of this preview, we'll go along with the oddsmakers numbers, that suggest Kansas City will be winning by about a 26-24 score. Decent chance both teams get in the end zone 3 times, but Kansas City looks a little more likely to come up with the key plays -- touchdown, field goal, sack -- to pull out a win at the end.
Certainly, there's not much to recommend betting against Patrick Mahomes. In the last six postseasons he's lost twice: to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV, and to Cincinnati in the AFC Championship a year later. Since then he's won 9 straight playoff games, throwing 15 touchdowns (2 more as a runner) and just 1 interception, averaging 242 yards passing and another 29 rushing. In the Super Bowl two years ago against this opponent, he threw for just 182 yards, but had only 6 incompletions (21 of 27), threw 3 touchdowns, and ran for 44 more.
It's a better defense this time around. Those Eagles (like this one) were top-5 against the pass, but just 17th against the run, factoring into Kansas City running for 158 yards, and Mahomes doing less through the air. That won't be happening this time; Kansas City hasn't been great running it (just 22nd during the season) and the Eagles were 10th defending it. We're putting Mahomes down for 255 yards, slightly above his season averages, and with the Eagles allowing a lot more touchdowns through the air than on the ground (22-9), he'll probably account for multiple touchdowns. Mahomes ran in two scores against Buffalo -- a change after he ran in only 2 all season -- making it seem like he'll be a factor with his legs around the goal line, as well. He ran for 66 yards in last year's Super Bowl win. He probably won't run as often as his counterpart in this game, and there will be no Tush Push, but the gap between the quarterbacks in fantasy leagues will probably be minimal (especially with the Eagles sporting the much better conventional running game).
Kansas City had a clearly defined ground game in its last two Super Bowls, with Isiah Pacheco the main runner and Jerick McKinnon getting more of the work in passing situations. It's different now, with Pacheco being hurt for most of the season, and then picking up a rib injury (probably minor, since he's continued to play through it, but possibly affecting him) on his return. Pacheco started and took the first carry in both playoff games, so there's that. But Kareem Hunt outsnapped him 62-35 and outtouched him 9-5 against Houston and 18-7 against Buffalo, averaging 58 total yards with a touchdown in each game (Pacheco averaged 21 total yards without scoring). It's tricky; probably Pacheco will take the first snap, and if he busts a run early, or is healthier than he was two weeks ago, maybe he'll wind up playing a little more. But recent visual and performance evidence suggests Hunt is more likely to finish with better numbers, and the better bet to score.
Samaje Perine will be on the field for some passing situations. He's unlikely to run it (he's carried the ball just 6 times in Kansas City's last 11 games), but has seen 20 targets in those contests. But tough to make a living that way in fantasy leagues. Those opportunities have resulted in 16 catches for 210 scoreless yards -- 1.5 receptions for 19 yards per game.
Touchdown odds don't look great. Only the Chargers allowed fewer rushing scores during the season than the Eagles (9). In three playoff games, the Eagles have allowed 2 rushing scores, one by Josh Jacobs and one by Jayden Daniels. Hunt is the favorite for such a score, but Pacheco and Mahomes are also reasonable possibilities. One note: we're assuming that Philadelphia's leading tackler, linebacker Zack Baun, will be available. He missed some practice time last week due to a groin injury. Should be miss the game (very unlikely) or be limited (slightly more possible) the ground game, and Kansas City's offense in general, would look a little better. For now, the assumption is he's fine.
Get ready for a heavy dose of Travis Kelce. During the season he had 35 more targets (133) and 38 more catches (97) than anyone else on the roster. He was a non-factor in the last game, against Buffalo, but had two of his best games all season in the meaningful two prior to that one -- 8 for 84 with a score in the top-seed clinching win over Pittsburgh, and 7 for 117 and a score in the playoff win over Houston. He's scored in three of four career meetings with this opponent, including 6 for 81 and a touchdown in Super Bowl LVII. And while the Eagles allowed just 5 touchdowns to tight ends in the regular season, they've been leaky in that regard in the postseason, perhaps related to losing linebacker Nakobe Dean against Green Bay. Tucker Kraft led the Packers with 5 catches in that one, the Rams threw 2 TDs to tight ends in the Divisional Round, and Zach Ertz caught 11 passes for 104 yards a week later. We're going with Taylor Swift's boyfriend as Kansas City's most-targeted receiver.
Those who are closed out of the starting tight ends in this game can look to Noah Gray as the 3rd-best choice at the position. He averaged 2.4 catches for 26 yards during the season, and his 5 touchdowns were 1 more than any other Kansas City receiver but Xavier Worthy. But Gray's midseason run of production dissipated over the season's final month and postseason. In his last six games he caught 8 passes for 51 yards, with 1 touchdown. Better than Grant Calcaterra, but that's all that can reasonably be said.
At wide receiver, the passing game has been leaning on Xavier Worthy for a while now. Consider the first 11 games, in which Worthy caught just 28 passes -- less than 3 per week -- and 3 TDs. At the time he was just a component of the passing game, with Rashee Rice, DeAndre Hopkins and even JuJu Smith-Schuster all having weeks (in some cases, multiple weeks) where they looked more like the top wideout. Worthy was handling the ball some on runs and they were trying to hit some big plays, but he caught more than 3 passes in just three of those 11 games.
But in Worthy's last seven games, he's been a featured target, catching at least 5 passes in all of those games -- 42 total, for an average of 59 yards, with 4 total touchdowns. An additional 9 yards per week as a runner. Consistently involved, and the only wide receiver that can be said about in those games. Hopkins was busy in a lot of those, at one point catching 4-plus passes in seven of eight, but his involvement has dried up of late (3 catches for 18 yards in his last three combined). Some of that appears to be the return of Marquise Brown, who's caught 3-5 passes in three of four. Shutout in the playoff game against Houston, however, making both veterans look like hit-or-miss options, and the lean is "miss."
Smith-Schuster, in contrast, can perhaps be considered as the 2nd-best choice after Worthy. He had 31- and 29-yard receptions in the Championship game against Buffalo, each of which set of touchdowns -- Kansas City's first, and last such scores in that game. He also came up big in the Super Bowl win over the Eagles two years ago, catching a team-high 7 passes for 53 yards. Those two catches against the Bills are his only 2 grabs in two postseason games, but worth a dice roll in larger leagues, or for those who can't use the Eagles wideouts or Worthy. With Justin Watson, you're just hoping he catches a scoring pass at some point. In the last eight games he's caught 2 TDs and a 2-point conversion (in the last game). But just 2 other receptions in those contests. Philadelphia allowed 22 touchdown passes during the season, and 17 of them went to wide receivers. Just 1 in three playoff games, however.
If one of these coaches passes up a makeable field goal to try and convert a fourth down, it will probably be Nick Sirianni. That makes Harrison Butker look like the slightly better kicking option. Kansas City only actually attempted one more field goal during the regular season, and the playoff numbers are similar (4 of 4 for Butker in two games, 6 of 7 for Jake Elliott in three). If you believe one of these teams is more likely to win, that's probably the kicker to go with.
The Kansas City Defense was the less productive of the two during the season, with 6 fewer takeaways (26-20) and 2 fewer sacks (41-39). But the Eagles lost a key starter in Nakobe Dean two weeks ago, and leading tackler Zack Baun is dealing with a groin injury. The matchup is a little better for Kansas City, particularly for sacks, with Jalen Hurts taking 38 in 14 games during the regular season and 11 in three playoff games (Mahomes was at 36 in 16, and 5 in two playoff games). But Hurts threw only 5 interceptions, so don't count on much in that area. Nikko Remigio had a 63-yard kick return against Houston; Kansas City could potentially activate Skyy Moore for this game (regardless, unlikely there's a difference-making return).
Next: Super Bowl Player Rankings.