Patrick Mahomes is perhaps the best quarterback in the game right now, but he’s different than he was at the start of his career. He’s not generating big plays like he did the past.
Specifically, I notice that Mahomes’ touchdown passes last year came from an average of only 12 yards. That was the lowest among all quarterbacks who threw at least 10. Compare that to five years ago. Mahomes’ touchdowns that season came from a league-high average of 28.5 yards.
Back in 2019, Mahomes’ touchdowns averaged over 2 more yards than anyone else. But over the last two years, his touchdowns have come from an average of over 2 yards less than anyone else.
AVERAGE LENGTH OF TOUCHDOWN PASSES | |
---|---|
2019 season | 2024 season |
28.5 Patrick Mahomes | 33.3 Will Levis |
26.0 Mason Rudolph | 29.1 Derek Carr |
23.7 Daniel Jones | 28.0 Jameis Winston |
23.6 Dak Prescott | 22.1 Dak Prescott |
21.9 Ryan Tannehill | 21.9 Justin Herbert |
20.8 Matthew Stafford | 21.6 Kirk Cousins |
20.2 Philip Rivers | 20.0 Geno Smith |
20.1 Aaron Rodgers | 19.4 Jared Goff |
19.9 Case Keenum | 19.3 Jalen Hurts |
19.8 Kirk Cousins | 18.5 Bryce Young |
19.6 Andy Dalton | 18.3 Joe Burrow |
19.1 Derek Carr | 17.9 Drake Maye |
18.9 Kyler Murray | 17.3 Joe Flacco |
18.7 Jimmy Garoppolo | 17.2 Josh Allen |
18.5 Deshaun Watson | 17.0 Lamar Jackson |
18.4 Lamar Jackson | 16.9 Jordan Love |
18.2 Tom Brady | 16.8 Jayden Daniels |
18.0 Josh Allen | 16.6 Bo Nix |
17.6 Baker Mayfield | 16.6 Sam Darnold |
17.2 Sam Darnold | 16.3 Trevor Lawrence |
17.0 Matt Ryan | 16.0 Caleb Williams |
16.9 Jameis Winston | 15.9 Russell Wilson |
16.2 Drew Brees | 15.5 Aaron Rodgers |
16.0 Russell Wilson | 15.4 Baker Mayfield |
15.7 Gardner Minshew | 15.2 Matthew Stafford |
14.5 Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15.0 Tua Tagovailoa |
13.7 Carson Wentz | 14.3 Brock Purdy |
12.8 Kyle Allen | 14.0 Cooper Rush |
12.4 Mitchell Trubisky | 13.3 Kyler Murray |
12.3 Jacoby Brissett | 13.1 C.J. Stroud |
12.3 Jared Goff | 12.2 Patrick Mahomes |
Some of the change can be attributed to personnel. Early in his career, he was working with Tyreek Hill. And they’ve more recently had some pass offensive line issues, with the protection not reliable enough to allow him to hold the ball while those plays develop.
But more the change (I think) comes from how opponents are playing defense. Teams don’t like giving up long touchdowns. Better to force offenses to methodically work the ball down the field, keeping things in front of them, hoping to stall out a drive, with a sack, penalty or key play somewhere along the way.
And KC’s offense has evolved along the way. While Mahomes isn’t connecting on those long bombs like he did in the past, he’s now the master of completing those shorter, clutch throws when he needs them – on third downs and in the fourth quarter.
—Ian Allan