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Patrick Mahomes

The evolution of Kansas City's passing game

Patrick Mahomes is perhaps the best quarterback in the game right now, but he’s different than he was at the start of his career. He’s not generating big plays like he did the past.

Specifically, I notice that Mahomes’ touchdown passes last year came from an average of only 12 yards. That was the lowest among all quarterbacks who threw at least 10. Compare that to five years ago. Mahomes’ touchdowns that season came from a league-high average of 28.5 yards.

Back in 2019, Mahomes’ touchdowns averaged over 2 more yards than anyone else. But over the last two years, his touchdowns have come from an average of over 2 yards less than anyone else.

AVERAGE LENGTH OF TOUCHDOWN PASSES
2019 season2024 season
28.5 Patrick Mahomes33.3 Will Levis
26.0 Mason Rudolph29.1 Derek Carr
23.7 Daniel Jones28.0 Jameis Winston
23.6 Dak Prescott22.1 Dak Prescott
21.9 Ryan Tannehill21.9 Justin Herbert
20.8 Matthew Stafford21.6 Kirk Cousins
20.2 Philip Rivers20.0 Geno Smith
20.1 Aaron Rodgers19.4 Jared Goff
19.9 Case Keenum19.3 Jalen Hurts
19.8 Kirk Cousins18.5 Bryce Young
19.6 Andy Dalton18.3 Joe Burrow
19.1 Derek Carr17.9 Drake Maye
18.9 Kyler Murray17.3 Joe Flacco
18.7 Jimmy Garoppolo17.2 Josh Allen
18.5 Deshaun Watson17.0 Lamar Jackson
18.4 Lamar Jackson16.9 Jordan Love
18.2 Tom Brady16.8 Jayden Daniels
18.0 Josh Allen16.6 Bo Nix
17.6 Baker Mayfield16.6 Sam Darnold
17.2 Sam Darnold16.3 Trevor Lawrence
17.0 Matt Ryan16.0 Caleb Williams
16.9 Jameis Winston15.9 Russell Wilson
16.2 Drew Brees15.5 Aaron Rodgers
16.0 Russell Wilson15.4 Baker Mayfield
15.7 Gardner Minshew15.2 Matthew Stafford
14.5 Ryan Fitzpatrick15.0 Tua Tagovailoa
13.7 Carson Wentz14.3 Brock Purdy
12.8 Kyle Allen14.0 Cooper Rush
12.4 Mitchell Trubisky13.3 Kyler Murray
12.3 Jacoby Brissett13.1 C.J. Stroud
12.3 Jared Goff12.2 Patrick Mahomes

Some of the change can be attributed to personnel. Early in his career, he was working with Tyreek Hill. And they’ve more recently had some pass offensive line issues, with the protection not reliable enough to allow him to hold the ball while those plays develop.

But more the change (I think) comes from how opponents are playing defense. Teams don’t like giving up long touchdowns. Better to force offenses to methodically work the ball down the field, keeping things in front of them, hoping to stall out a drive, with a sack, penalty or key play somewhere along the way.

And KC’s offense has evolved along the way. While Mahomes isn’t connecting on those long bombs like he did in the past, he’s now the master of completing those shorter, clutch throws when he needs them – on third downs and in the fourth quarter.

—Ian Allan

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