The Lions, Bills, Ravens and Bucs scored the most points last year. So those are the first teams that come to mind when mulling which offenses might dip in 2025. As they say, what goes up must come down.
The Cowboys, Dolphins and 49ers, as recent examples, were the three highest-scoring teams a year ago. San Francisco went on to rank 13th in scoring, while Dallas and Miami ranked outside the top 20.
Things change.
Detroit and Tampa Bay look like the most vulnerable of our current four, with their offensive coordinators (Ben Johnson, Liam Cohen) taking head coaching jobs. With those other two offenses, the coordinators – Joe Brady, Todd Monken – interviewed for head coaching jobs, but it looks like they’re staying in place.
Regardless, history demonstrates that it’s not easy staying on top. In the 32-team era, 30 teams have averaged at least 30 points in a season. Those teams, on average, scored 5.5 fewer points per game the next season.
Of those 30 teams, half finished in the top 5 in scoring the next season. But that, of course, means than half didn’t. A third of those teams didn’t even rank in the top 10 (and those teams are tagged with black dots in the chart below).
On most of those declining teams, a clear trail of bread crumbs is visible. Coaches like Kyle Shanahan and Sean Payton left. Kurt Warner, Cam Newton and Peyton Manning or hurt or physically declined.
But when reaching the rarified air of 30-plus points per game, certainly the trend is to get worse rather than better. Of the 30 teams listed below, only two game back the next year and scored even more points. (The 2012 Patriots averaged almost 3 more points, while Peyton Manning blew up in his second season in Denver, with the Broncos averaging almost 8 more points.)
Detroit last year was the 9th-highest scoring team of the last 20 years, but all of the teams finishing above them averaged at least 4 fewer points the next season. They’ve got great talent, with Jahmyr Gibbs leading the way, but it’s almost impossible to duplicate a magical season.
| TEAMS AVERAGING 30 POINTS (the next year) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pts | Next | Rk | Diff |
| 2013 | Denver | 37.9 | 30.1 | 2 | -7.8 |
| 2007 | New England | 36.8 | 25.6 | 8 | -11.2 |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 35.3 | 28.2 | 5 | -7.1 |
| 2011 | Green Bay | 35.0 | 27.1 | 5 | -7.9 |
| 2012 | New England | 34.8 | 27.8 | 3 | -7.1 |
| 2011 | New Orleans | 34.2 | 28.8 | 3 | -5.4 |
| 2016 | • Atlanta | 33.8 | 22.1 | 15 | -11.7 |
| 2019 | Baltimore | 33.2 | 29.3 | 7 | -3.9 |
| 2024 | Detroit | 33.2 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | • LA Rams | 32.9 | 24.6 | 11 | -8.3 |
| 2004 | Indianapolis | 32.6 | 27.4 | 2 | -5.2 |
| 2010 | New England | 32.4 | 32.1 | 3 | -.3 |
| 2011 | New England | 32.1 | 34.8 | 1 | 2.8 |
| 2009 | • New Orleans | 31.9 | 24.0 | 11 | -7.9 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 31.8 | 26.5 | 10 | -5.3 |
| 2018 | New Orleans | 31.5 | 28.6 | 3t | -2.9 |
| 2001 | • St. Louis | 31.4 | 19.8 | 23t | -11.7 |
| 2020 | Buffalo | 31.3 | 28.4 | 3 | -2.9 |
| 2015 | • Carolina | 31.3 | 23.1 | 15 | -8.2 |
| 2021 | Dallas | 31.2 | 27.5 | 4 | -3.7 |
| 2024 | Buffalo | 30.9 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay | 30.8 | 30.1 | 2 | -.7 |
| 2006 | San Diego | 30.8 | 25.8 | 5 | -5.0 |
| 2020 | • Tennessee | 30.7 | 24.6 | 15 | -6.0 |
| 2015 | Arizona | 30.6 | 26.1 | 6 | -4.4 |
| 2024 | Baltimore | 30.5 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2014 | • Green Bay | 30.4 | 23.0 | 15 | -7.4 |
| 2003 | Kansas City | 30.3 | 30.2 | 2 | -.1 |
| 2004 | Kansas City | 30.2 | 25.2 | 6 | -5.0 |
| 2014 | • Denver | 30.1 | 22.2 | 19 | -7.9 |
| 2020 | • New Orleans | 30.1 | 21.4 | 19 | -8.7 |
| 2012 | Denver | 30.1 | 37.9 | 1 | 7.8 |
| 2021 | • Tampa Bay | 30.1 | 18.4 | 25 | -11.6 |
—Ian Allan