There's only one football game left, but it's the biggest game of the year, and dang it, we've got to make some bets on this thing. I'll be staying away from Gatorade colors and length of the National Anthem, but I'm pretty sure I can come up with 10 worthwhile wagers.
Because it's the Super Bowl, different sites have entirely different "special" wagers. I typically start with DraftKings, but I've also bet on FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and I've had some good success lately at Fanatics Sportsbook. I wouldn't say they're all the same, they're not, but actual over-under numbers are generally close. Regardless, here are the ones that leap out at me.
1. and 2. Saquon Barkley rushing. I've said, grudgingly, that I think Kansas City will win this game; I don't see the profit in betting against a team on the kind of streak they've been on. But that doesn't mean I believe they'll be stopping a running back on the kind of tear that Barkley has been on. He's been held under 107 rushing yards just once in his last 10 games; under 115 just twice. He's going to be getting a bunch of carries, and a 60-yard breakaway is always on the table. I'll bet the over on his number of 112.5, and as a bonus I'll also go with his longest run of 25.5. He's had a run over 20 yards in eight of his last 10 games; 25-plus in six of those. Kansas City, as discussed earlier here, has not been as tough against the run lately, and they've been susceptible against runners operating a level or two below Saquon.
3. Patrick Mahomes rushing. The Kansas City quarterback is definitely the lesser of the two rushers in this game, but he's the one most likely to be over his season averages. Mahomes during the season averaged 19.2 rushing yards. But that production tends to inch upward as the games get bigger. Just 14 yards against Houston, but 43 and 2 TDs in the win over Buffalo. Last year's Super Bowl: 9 carries for 66 yards. Super Bowl two years ago, against this opponent: 6 carries for 44 yards. Now, his rushing over-under at DraftKings is 29.5, which is a little higher than I've projected him for (25). But there's a Super Bowl Special bet which has him at 215 yards passing and 15 yards rushing, that I will happily bet the over on.
4. Travis Kelce anytime touchdown. Like most of the civilized world, I'm a little tired of Kelce. His ridiculous end-zone taunting against the Bills was probably the last straw. Yeah man, you're great, you're dating the most famous woman on Earth and she looks good in red, we get it. You're also old, so maturity shouldn't be hard to come by. But anyway, Kelce has long upped his game in the playoffs. He's scored 20 touchdowns in his last 21 playoff games. And the Eagles have had troubles against the position this postseason. Tucker Kraft led Green Bay in receptions in the wild-card round. Two different Rams tight ends caught touchdowns in the Divisional Round. and Zach Ertz caught 11 passes for 104 yards in the Championship game.
5. Noah Gray TD. A riskier (but of course, more profitable if it hits) bet would be on Gray to score at some point. As discussed in the preview, Gray hasn't been a factor lately. But he caught 5 touchdowns during the season, and since the Eagles haven't defended the position well of late and will certainly be more concerned with Kelce, I think the odds of Gray scoring are up a little (anytime touchdown odds of +500 for him, compared to +145 for Kelce). Index Bets readers would recognize this as the Longshot of the Week. Please don't bet a lot on Gray, but if you want to make a small bet that will be more rewarding than the random 50-50 type bets, this is it.
6. JuJu Smith-Schuster receiving. Way back in October, Smith-Schuster had the kind of game that had everyone blowing the waiver budget to add him to their rosters: 7 catches for 130 yards against New Orleans. That turned out to be fool's gold, with JJSS proceeding to catch just 9 passes in nine games the entire rest of the season -- ouch. He also didn't catch a pass against Houston (Xavier Worthy was the only KC wideout who did). But Smith-Schuster was a big factor in the win over Buffalo, catching 29- and 31-yard passes on Kansas City's first and last touchdown drives. He also came up big in the Super Bowl win two years ago (7 catches for 53 yards). That's enough of a favorable track record to make me thinking he'll be catching a couple of balls in this game, and going over his meager over-under total of 16.5.
7. Dallas Goedert receiving. As No. 3 targets in the passing game go, Goedert has been very productive lately. In his last seven he's caught 31 passes for an average of 51 yards. That average accounts for his over-under being set at 52.5. But the Eagles emphasized the run in a lot of those games, and while they'll hope to do that in the Super Bowl, I think they'll be passing plenty to (Kansas City's offense will be requiring it). Goedert caught 7 for 85 against Washington, and I like his chances of hitting the over in this game.
8. Xavier Worthy. Betting on three Kansas City pass catchers is probably a mistake, but if you don't like the other ones, some consideration should be given to Worthy. It's possible he'll handle the ball on both receptions and runs, and his total yards over-under is just 67.5. Worthy has totaled at least 75 yards in four of his last five games, and caught at least 5 passes in seven straight. Seems like a decent bet.
9. Marquise Brown under. The guy known as Hollywood may well be Kansas City's No. 2 wideout in this game. But even if he is, he'll be behind at least Kelce and Worthy for targets, and I think Smith-Schuster might be a factor, as noted. And regardless, Brown as the No. 2 wideout since returning from injury averages 3 catches for 32 yards in four games, with a high of 46. I'll take the under on his 42.5.
10. Jalen Hurts longest run. Hurts has a rushing over-under of 38.5. I have him over that by a little in the projections, but it's close enough that I don't really care to bet it. But his longest run is set at just 12.5, and that seems promising. Hurts has a run over 15 yards in 10 of his 17 full games, and in five of his last six (the exception was the last game, and in that one he had a longer run wiped out by a holding penalty).
As always, please bet responsibly, if at all. Should be fun, not something to risk the mortgage on. Good luck, and enjoy the game.