The last couple of days we've published discussion and previews of each of the two Super Bowl teams. Now's the time to put numbers to that text and see how the ordering of the players shakes out.
Saquon Barkley is the top player to have on your side. Not that he'll necessarily finish with more fantasy points than either of the quarterbacks, but relative to the other starters at his position, he'll give you a huge edge, probably finishing with more than any other two running backs in this game combined.
If you don't get Barkley, Kareem Hunt looks like the next-best running back. He's been playing more, carrying more and most importantly scoring more than Isiah Pacheco in Kansas City's committee backfield. Hard to say whether Pacheco isn't fully healthy, or if the team just likes Hunt better in their blocking scheme right now, or what. Things could change on Sunday. But all the visual and statistical evidence we have to go on is that Hunt is the best bet after Barkley. With passing downs specialist Samaje Perine, you're just hoping game flow happens to break your way. Kansas City forcing a punt or receiving a kickoff 90 seconds before the half, for example, would likely put Perine on the field, perhaps catching 3 for 30 on a scoring drive. Philadelphia taking a lead late would mean more Perine. But it's just as possible that he barely gets on the field and catches a single 8-yard pass.
I don't know if Kenneth Gainwell (concussion, knee) will get cleared for this game, but whether it's him or Will Shipley, I'll set the over-under of plays that Barkley isn't on the field at 5. In Philadelphia's closest playoff game, against the Rams, he played all but 6 plays. The game will be close and Barkley will likely be on the field close to full-time.
With the quarterbacks, I've got Jalen Hurts about a half a point better than Patrick Mahomes. Usually, the gap in fantasy leagues is much wider. They're closer here for two reasons. One is that with Barkley on his side, I think Hurts will be doing less passing and more handing the ball off. He almost always does less passing than Mahomes, of course, but if one offense is carried by its running back in this game, it will definitely be Philadelphia. The other reason, as discussed in the Kansas City preview, is I think Mahomes will be running more than usual. He did last week against Buffalo. He did in the previous Super Bowl between these teams, and he did in last year's Super Bowl. The oddsmakers agree, setting his over-under at around 30 rushing yards (he averaged 19 during the season). So with Mahomes likely passing more and possibly running it only a little less, the two are closer than in an average week for both.
Travis Kelce, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Xavier Worthy all look somewhat similar. All will or might catch 5-plus passes. All are in the mix to catch a touchdown, with Kelce and Brown looking best. But since each could also finish 2nd in targets and receptions on their teams, there's not a slam-dunk choice. I've got Kelce highest because he's tended to step up or be used more in the postseason, maybe it's his last game (we can hope) and Philadelphia has allowed good numbers to all the tight ends its faced in the playoffs: 2 TDs by the Rams, 11 catches by Zach Ertz.
Dallas Goedert seems like the clear No. 5 receiver -- maybe he sneaks up into the top 3, very unlikely he slips down to 6th or 7th. He's definitely one of Philadelphia's top 3, which can't be said about any KC receivers after Kelce and Worthy.
Throw a dart to get Kansas City's 2nd-best wideout. At various points during the year it's been different players. JuJu Smith-Schuster had a big game in the last Super Bowl between these two and had two big plays in the win over Buffalo, so I'm giving the edge to him. But Marquise Brown or DeAndre Hopkins are also reasonable candidates. Since neither did much of anything in either postseason game, though, it's hard to recommend either.
I'm not showing the defenses in this table, because none of the columns work. I ran the numbers and Kansas City grades out a little better for sacks and Philadelphia a little better for takeaways (and as a result, defensive touchdown potential). I'm not expecting a big special teams play, in part because neither team has a notable returner in this one, and in part because the NFL has inadvertently legislated kick returns out of the game with its poorly crafted "dynamic kick return" this year. Both teams will probably be content to put all kickoffs in the end zone and not bring them out. In any case, while both defenses are very good, it should be a fairly clean game with both teams in the 2-3 sack and 1ish takeaway range.
Player rankings are below, sorted by PPR scoring (Standard and TD-only points are also shown). Some right to left scrolling is required to see the entire table.
| SUPER BOWL LIX PLAYER RANKINGS | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Tm | Player | Pass | Rec | Run | Tot | PaTD | RRTD | Std | PPR | TD |
| QB | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 223 | 0 | 48 | 271 | 1.34 | .47 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 8.2 |
| QB | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 252 | 0 | 25 | 278 | 1.98 | .08 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 8.4 |
| RB | PHI | Saquon Barkley | 0 | 17 | 117 | 134 | .00 | .96 | 19.2 | 21.2 | 5.8 |
| TE | KC | Travis Kelce | 0 | 62 | 0 | 62 | .01 | .60 | 9.8 | 17.0 | 3.6 |
| WR | PHI | A.J. Brown | 0 | 68 | 0 | 68 | .00 | .43 | 9.3 | 14.5 | 2.6 |
| WR | KC | Xavier Worthy | 0 | 56 | 4 | 60 | .00 | .55 | 9.3 | 14.5 | 3.3 |
| WR | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 0 | 61 | 1 | 61 | .00 | .27 | 7.8 | 12.7 | 1.6 |
| TE | PHI | Dallas Goedert | 0 | 52 | 0 | 52 | .00 | .34 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 2.0 |
| RB | KC | Kareem Hunt | 0 | 12 | 53 | 64 | .00 | .42 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 2.5 |
| PK | KC | Harrison Butker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| WR | KC | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 36 | 0 | 36 | .00 | .20 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 1.2 |
| PK | PHI | Jake Elliott | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| WR | KC | Marquise Brown | 0 | 23 | 0 | 23 | .00 | .16 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 1.0 |
| RB | KC | Isiah Pacheco | 0 | 5 | 23 | 28 | .00 | .21 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 1.2 |
| WR | KC | DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | .00 | .14 | 2.9 | 4.8 | .8 |
| RB | KC | Samaje Perine | 0 | 15 | 2 | 17 | .00 | .10 | 2.3 | 3.8 | .6 |
| RB | PHI | Kenneth Gainwell | 0 | 9 | 9 | 17 | .00 | .08 | 2.2 | 3.4 | .5 |
| TE | KC | Noah Gray | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13 | .00 | .14 | 2.1 | 3.3 | .8 |
| WR | PHI | Jahan Dotson | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | .00 | .05 | 1.4 | 2.5 | .3 |
| WR | KC | Justin Watson | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | .00 | .06 | 0.9 | 1.3 | .4 |
| TE | PHI | Grant Calcaterra | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .00 | .01 | 0.3 | .5 | .1 |
| WR | PHI | Ainias Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .00 | .01 | 0.1 | .3 | .0 |
| TE | PHI | E.J. Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .00 | .01 | 0.1 | .2 | .0 |
| WR | PHI | Johnny Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .00 | .01 | 0.1 | .2 | .0 |
| QB | KC | Carson Wentz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .02 | .00 | 0.2 | .2 | .1 |
| RB | PHI | Will Shipley | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .00 | .01 | 0.1 | .2 | .0 |
| RB | KC | Carson Steele | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .00 | .00 | 0.1 | .1 | .0 |
| QB | PHI | Kenny Pickett | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .01 | .00 | 0.1 | .1 | .0 |
| TE | KC | Peyton Hendershot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | 0.0 | .1 | .0 |
| QB | PHI | Tanner McKee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .01 | .00 | 0.1 | .1 | .0 |
| WR | KC | Nikko Remigio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .01 | 0.1 | .1 | .1 |
| WR | PHI | Parris Campbell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | 0.0 | .1 | .0 |