These five first baseman and third baseman enter draft season valued more highly by the public than they should be.
While finding sleepers is important, avoiding overvalued landmines in the draft pool can be even more important in fantasy leagues. Making the wrong decisions on draft day can put you behind in the standings early, without the ability to catch up. These five corner infielders could be overvalued “busts” based on their early average draft positions.
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers
Freeman is arguably the most talented pure hitter of his era, an eight-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger who has hit better than .280 in all but two of his full MLB seasons. After returning clear first round value in 2023 as a 20/20 man who hit .331, Freeman regressed last season. He understandably missed time while his son, Maximus, was ill, and fought through injuries late in the year. As a result, it’s easy to give Freeman a mulligan for the down year hitting only .282-22-89 with 81 runs in 147 games.
However, age breakdown for hitters is more real than ever with so many pitchers throwing gas in the modern era, and it’s been inescapable for even the most talented of hitters. Freeman enters his age 35 season following ankle surgery, and hadn’t started running as of early February. He also fought through a finger injury in August. Freeman’s price remains high with an ADP of 25 in spite of the age and injuries, and a declining average exit velocity provides even more concern he won’t earn his second round price.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B/OF, Yankees
The patience many fantasy managers had with the highly talented Chisholm finally paid off last season, particularly after he was traded to the Yankees. He went on a tear in New York, hitting .273-11-23 with 18 steals in only 46 games while learning a new position at third base. The end result was a nearly elite season with 24 home runs and 40 stolen bases.
The move to the Yankees might have provided a legitimate jolt for Chisholm, but we shouldn’t pretend the significant risk is behind him. It’s worth remembering Chisholm couldn’t stay on the field prior to 2024, averaging 76 games in four years and maxing out at only 124 games in 2022. The best predictor of future health is past health, but an ADP of 24 leaves almost no margin for error.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Yankees
Only two years removed from winning the NL MVP, Goldschmidt will change uniforms and don pinstripes in 2025. He was mired in a terrible slump for much of 2024 with the Cardinals, but still managed to hit .245-22-65 with 70 runs and 11 steals in 154 games. Goldschmidt did start to find himself in the second half of 2024, with a .271 batting average and .799 OPS, though there are clear signs of decline as he enters his age 37 season.
Goldschmidt’s strikeout rate has increased sharply over the last two seasons, peaking at a career-worst 27% last year. His timing was off for much of last season, as shown by his .169 batting average against offspeed, but the production was also well down vs. fastballs. There is some hope for Goldy with Yankee Stadium playing very favorably for right-handed power recently, but recent examples of age declines make his 163 ADP a tough buy.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Brewers
Coming off ACL surgery, Hoskins found a two-year, $34 million contract with the Brewers last offseason. The first season of the deal was a huge disappointment, as Hoskins hit only .214-26-82 with a .303 OBP in 517 plate appearances. The optimists would point to rust after a year off and a change of scenery, but Hoskins was particularly brutal for fantasy managers with his poor batting average and inconsistency down the stretch.
Hoskins has never graded well defensively, and his lame duck status creates risk. Simply put, Hoskins has been a liability defensively (11th percentile OAA), a fact that’s probably not lost on the stat-minded Brewers. Yet, last year’s offense isn’t great for designated hitter production, and the Brewers still have top prospect Tyler Black on the cusp and looking for a place to play. There’s real playing time risk here at age 32 if Hoskins’ offensive production doesn’t pick up, and some better alternatives at an ADP around 275.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox
The third overall draft choice in the 2019 draft, it’s fair to say Vaughn’s career has been a disappointment after the team rushed him to the majors following the COVID season. Vaughn looked out of place as an outfielder, but the full-time move to first base didn’t help his offense last season. His .699 OPS was the worst of his career, and Vaughn has yet to produce a WAR of 1.0 in a full season.
A lack of playing time and lineup competition has made Vaughn a relatively safe buy for counting stats, but the slack could be getting tighter with only two years until free agency and the recent add of Joey Gallo. Vaughn’s bat has been sub-par recently, and it’s starting to look unlikely that he’s in the White Sox long-term plans for a team that’s clearly years away from competing. The ADP near 300 doesn’t break the bank, and any optimism for his fantasy value is counting more on opportunity than skill with Vaughn totaling 40 home runs and 150 RBI over the last two years. The possibility of a trade or benching in favor of a younger player is more pressing if Vaughn doesn’t get off to a better start this season.
--Seth Trachtman
You can find more fantasy baseball analysis in the 2025 Fantasy Baseball Index Draft Kit and Fantasy Baseball Index magazine.