The NFL Combine is going on in Indianapolis, with today a big day for the offensive skill positions. Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers will take the field; the ones who haven't opted not to work out for one reason or another, anyway.
More and more top prospects choose not to work out each year. Some guys want to save themselves for their school Pro Day, where conditions are more familiar and favorable. Some are coming off surgery or have other nagging issues. Most, I think, just realize they're more likely to hurt their draft stock than help it by going out and running a 40 time that maybe isn't as fast as expected.
It reduces the appeal of these workouts somewhat, but for every top player who chooses not to run or throw, there will be plenty of others who will be -- the ones looking to get their names on the map. So there will be some guys out there running the 40 today, hoping to maybe move their stock from being a Day 3 pick (Rounds 4-7) to Day 2 (Rounds 2-3).
While last year's draft was strong at quarterback and wide receiver, running backs are drawing the most buzz in the 2025 class. I've seen speculation that as many as eight could be selected by the end of Round 3, which is probably optimistic. But there will probably be a first-rounder (Ashton Jeanty), which doesn't happen every year anymore, and at least a handful more in the next couple of rounds.
Two running backs I'll be monitoring are Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson (pictured) and Tennessee's Dylan Sampson. Along with Jeanty, North Carolina's Omarion Hampton, another Ohio State back (Quinshon Judkins) and Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, these seem to be the top 5 or 6 prospects. But Henderson (who averaged 7.1 yards per attempt last season) and Sampson (who carried Tennessee's offense, running for 1,491 yards and 22 TDs) look like the guys most likely to run the top 40s -- potentially in the 4.3s. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll be great pros, but it's a data point we can look at.
I'm not sure it matters much, but faster is better than slower. I took a look at all the running backs this century to run a 4.39 or faster at the combine. Some misses, but a lot of good pros in that group.
For this table, I went with strictly official combine times. So fast guys who didn't run for one reason or another aren't included, nor are estimated times. And I went with players selected in the first three rounds, usually suggesting NFL teams view them as potential lead backs. There have been 19 running backs to run a 4.39 or better at the combine since 2000, and then go on to be drafted in the first three rounds. Of those players, 11 have had at least one top-10 fantasy season (PPR) at some point, and two others have had a top-20 season at some point. One exception (Trey Benson, who ran a 4.39 a year ago and was selected by Arizona in the third round) it's too early to say which way he'll go.
Just five guys who never amounted to anything in the league. Injuries derailed David Wilson's career with the Giants. Dri Archer was tiny and drafted in the third round with hopes he'd be an impact return man. Knile Davis, Isaiah Pead and LaMichael James were the washouts.
Table shows draft year and round, official 40 times and the top fantasy season of each of those 19 running backs, sorted by their finish at the position in PPR leagues in those top seasons.
| FAST 40S, RBS DRAFTED ROUNDS 1-3, 2001-PRESENT | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Rd | 40 | Player | Best | Run-No-Rec-TD | Rk |
| 2008 | 1 | 4.24 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 2009 | 2006-50-503-16 | 1 |
| 2023 | 1 | 4.36 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 2024 | 1412-52-517-20 | 1 |
| 2008 | 3 | 4.38 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 2013 | 1287-70-693-19 | 1 |
| 2020 | 2 | 4.39 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 2021 | 1811-40-360-20 | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | 4.39 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 2023 | 994-76-591-9 | 2 |
| 2011 | 3 | 4.37 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 2014 | 1845-57-416-13 | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | 4.39 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 2008 | 824-62-565-14 | 3 |
| 2023 | 3 | 4.32 | DeVon Achane, Mia. | 2024 | 907-78-592-12 | 5 |
| 2010 | 1 | 4.37 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 2012 | 1244-43-459-8 | 6 |
| 2020 | 3 | 4.39 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 2021 | 1037-42-294-10 | 8 |
| 2008 | 1 | 4.33 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 2010 | 1157-47-507-10 | 8 |
| 2022 | 2 | 4.38 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 2022 | 1050-27-165-9 | 18 |
| 2010 | 1 | 4.35 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 2010 | 555-58-487-6 | 20 |
| 2013 | 3 | 4.37 | Knile Davis, K.C. | 2014 | 463-16-147-8 | 34 |
| 2012 | 1 | 4.38 | David Wilson, NYG | 2012 | 358-4-34-6 | 51 |
| 2024 | 3 | 4.39 | Trey Benson, Ari. | 2024 | 291-6-59-1 | 70 |
| 2012 | 2 | 4.39 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | 2013 | 21-11-78-0 | 108 |
| 2012 | 2 | 4.35 | LaMichael James, S.F. | 2012 | 125-3-29-0 | 116 |
| 2014 | 3 | 4.26 | Dri Archer, Pitt. | 2014 | 40-7-23-0 | 124 |
Speaking of 40 times, Texas wideout Isaiah Bond says he's planning on breaking the 40 time set by Xavier Worthy (4.21) just last year. "I'm going to break the record tomorrow, for sure," Bond said Friday. "I anticipate running 4.20 or possibly, if I'm feeling great, I might run a 4.1." Ambitious!
Later this week I'll try to put together a similar table with wide receivers; see what the hit rate has been on them. Worthy looks pretty good so far.
--Andy Richardson