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Factoid

Don't expect another Bucky Irving

It's rare for fourth-round running backs to hit it big early

Bucky Irving had the big rookie season, putting up 1,514 combined yards, with 8 TDs. But nobody should be heading into the 2025 season with much of an expectation that a running back selected in that area of the draft will be putting up those kind of numbers.

It just doesn’t happen all that often. When running backs are still around in the fourth round, those guys are far more likely to play depth-type roles, particularly in their first season.

In the case of Irving, he landed in the perfect storm of being able to outplay holdover Rachaad White while the Bucs also turned to more of a run-oriented offense (improving from 32nd to 4th in rushing).

When the big-picture numbers are trotted out, it becomes apparent just how high the degree of difficulty is when investing in running backs selected in the fourth round.

In the last 10 years, 44 running backs have been selected in the fourth round. Only one of those backs (Irving) ran for over 1,000 yards. Only one other (Dameon Pierce) ran for more than 640.

Including receiving, Irving was the 15th-best back in PPR formats last year. But only seven other backs (of those 44) put up top-30 stats (all ranked between 25th and 30th).

Only seven of those 44 backs were the most productive running backs on their own teams (and they’re tagged with black dots in the chart below). Fifteen others were the 2nd-best backs on their own teams, meaning that half of those 44 weren’t even one of the top 2 backs on their own teams.

RUNNING BACKS SELECTED IN THE FOURTH ROUND
YearPlayerRushRecTotalTDPPRRk
2024Bucky Irving, T.B.1,1223921,5148246.415
2022• Dameon Pierce, Hou.9391651,1045170.425
2018Nyheim Hines, Ind.3144257394160.928
2021• Michael Carter, NYJ6393259644156.429
2017Tarik Cohen, Chi.3703537234154.428
2015• Javorius Allen, Balt.5143538673149.729
2016• Devontae Booker, Den.6122658775148.729
2015Jeremy Langford, Chi.5372798167147.630
2017• Jamaal Williams, G.B.5562628186142.834
2021• Chuba Hubbard, Car.6121747866139.636
2021Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E.6061237295116.947
2024Ray Davis, Buff.4421896316116.141
2017Samaje Perine, Was.6031827852112.543
2017Wayne Gallman, NYG4761936691106.946
2017Marlon Mack, Ind.3582255834103.348
2016Kenneth Dixon, Balt.3821625443102.447
2023Roschon Johnson, Chi.3522095612102.147
2018Ito Smith, Atl.315152467497.750
2024Isaac Guerendo, S.F.420152572496.247
2019Tony Pollard, Dall.455107562391.253
2020Joshua Kelley, LAC354148502285.258
2024Braelon Allen, NYJ334148482385.251
2018Chase Edmonds, Ari.208103311263.172
2019Benny Snell, Pitt.42623449259.967
2020DeeJay Dallas, Sea.108111219356.973
2019Justice Hill, Balt.22570295249.577
2018Kalen Ballage, Mia.19156247139.786
2024Hassan Haskins, LAC8949138334.880
2024Jaylen Wright, Mia.2498257028.791
2022Pierre Strong, N.E.10042142127.294
2022Hassan Haskins, Ten.9357150026.096
2021Kene Nwangwu, Min.61970223.0105
2020Anthony McFarland, Pitt.11354167022.7102
2015Jalston Fowler, Ten.134457222.7110
2015Mike Davis, S.F.583896016.6118
2024Will Shipley, Phil.8235117015.7104
2018Mark Walton, Cin.344175012.5109
2022Isaiah Spiller, LAC41135408.4126
2024Sione Vaki, Det.14375108.1112
2022Zamir White, L.V.7007007.0132
2016Tyler Ervin, Hou.3182105.1140
2017Joe Williams, S.F.0000.0---
2019Bryce Love, Was.0000.0---
2017Donnel Pumphrey, Phil.0000.0---

For fantasy purposes, I think this means expectations should be modest. There will be a fourth-round back from time to time that catches your eye. Maybe you liked what he did in college. Or even better, he seems to be getting some traction in the preseason.

But in general, they should be selected with speculative, luxury-type picks – thinking that maybe they’ll develop into something. Maybe they go the Isaac Guerendo route, with a couple of late-season starts. But it’s not really realistic to select them with the intention of counting on them to be consistent contributors.

—Ian Allan

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