I noticed and thought it was weird over the past month how often somebody from the Seahawks would point out how much they liked Geno Smith – Mike Macdonald, GM John Schneider, and even offensive coordinator hire Klint Kubiak. And sure enough, now they’re sending him off to Las Vegas.
Piecing together the reports, it seems the Seahawks liked Smith but didn’t love him. They wanted him back for under $40 million per year, while he was looking for something averaging $45 million. (Entering the final year of his contract, he needed a new deal.)
Instead, the Raiders are taking him on. They’ve got Pete Carroll, who worked with Smith in Seattle. And they’ve got Tom Brady involved their decision making. Whether Brady is an asset or a liability remains to be seen. (John Elway is evidence that there’s not necessarily a strong correlation between playing quarterback and picking quarterbacks.)
Smith has completed 68.5 percent of his passes the last three years, 3rd-best in the league.
The Seahawks almost certainly will be signing a free agent quarterback, and Sam Darnold is the guy they’re believed to be targeting. They probably already have a verbal deal in place.
Darnold had the two meltdown games at the end of last year, but he was a very effective downfield passer. On passes 20-plus yards downfield, he completed a league-high 57 percent of his passes. That included a game-winning touchdown against the Seahawks.
With that downfield passing ability, Darnold might fit pretty well into what the Seahawks are trying to do. With Kubiak, they’ll be running the ball more, with more deep shots off play action. Derek Carr played for Kubiak last year, and I remember Carr connecting on a surprising number of long balls – to Rashid Shaheed early in the season, and some to Marquez Valdes-Scantling later on.
The Seahawks in this deal also likely will pick up a few bucks in cap space, which is worth something, along with a third-round pick. That choice, however, is a late third-rounder (No. 92 overall) rather than the Raiders’ own pick near the top of the round.
The hit rate on players in that area of the draft isn’t particularly high. Below see the last 50 players who were chosen between 90th and 94th in the draft. Unless I’m missing somebody, I see only four who’ve been in a Pro Bowl – one Pro Bowl for Shaquill Griffin, Conner McGovern and Jonathan Greenard, and two for kick returner Devin Duvernay.
Spencer Brown is an above-average right tackle who’s signed an extension that averages $18 million. Greenard has had 12-plus sacks in back-to-back seasons. They’ve probably been the best of the 50 picks. I see a smattering of offensive linemen who’ve started games.
I see 18 skill-position players in those 50, but with a lot more misses than hits. Jalen McMillan caught touchdowns in five straight games at the end of last year; he might wind up being the best of those 18. Michael Wilson and Rachaad White started some last year, but they’re not needle movers. Jacoby Brissett is the only quarterback of any note.
When a team is picking 92nd, I think, it should be hoping to land a player who can be a serviceable starter or contribute some. It’s not really realistic to hope for much more.
| PLAYERS PICKED ABOUT 92ND IN THE DRAFT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pk | Pos | Player | School |
| 2024 | Ari. | 90 | DB | Elijah Jones | Boston College |
| 2024 | G.B. | 91 | LB | Ty'Ron Hopper | Missouri |
| 2024 | T.B. | 92 | WR | Jalen McMillan | Washington |
| 2024 | Bal. | 93 | DE | Adisa Isaac | Penn State |
| 2024 | Phi. | 94 | DE | Jalyx Hunt | Houston Christian |
| 2023 | Dal. | 90 | LB | DeMarvion Overshown | Texas |
| 2023 | Buf. | 91 | LB | Dorian Williams | Tulane |
| 2023 | K.C. | 92 | OL | Wanya Morris | Oklahoma |
| 2023 | Pit. | 93 | TE | Darnell Washington | Georgia |
| 2023 | Ari. | 94 | WR | Michael Wilson | Stanford |
| 2022 | L.V. | 90 | OG | Dylan Parham | Memphis |
| 2022 | T.B. | 91 | RB | Rachaad White | Arizona State |
| 2022 | G.B. | 92 | OT | Sean Rhyan | UCLA |
| 2022 | S.F. | 93 | RB | Tyrion Davis-Price | Louisiana State |
| 2022 | Car. | 94 | QB | Matt Corral | Mississippi |
| 2021 | Min. | 90 | DE | Patrick Jones | Pittsburgh |
| 2021 | Cle. | 91 | WR | Anthony Schwartz | Auburn |
| 2021 | Ten. | 92 | LB | Monty Rice | Georgia |
| 2021 | Buf. | 93 | OT | Spencer Brown | Northern Iowa |
| 2021 | Bal. | 94 | OG | Ben Cleveland | Georgia |
| 2020 | Hou. | 90 | DE | • Jonathan Greenard | Florida |
| 2020 | N.E. | 91 | TE | Devin Asiasi | UCLA |
| 2020 | Bal. | 92 | WR | •• Devin Duvernay | Texas |
| 2020 | Ten. | 93 | RB | Darrynton Evans | Appalachian State |
| 2020 | G.B. | 94 | TE | Josiah Deguara | Cincinnati |
| 2019 | Dal. | 90 | OG | • Connor McGovern | Penn State |
| 2019 | LAC | 91 | OT | Trey Pipkins | Sioux Falls |
| 2019 | NYJ | 92 | OT | Chuma Edoga | Southern Cal |
| 2019 | Bal. | 93 | WR | Miles Boykin | Notre Dame |
| 2019 | T.B. | 94 | CB | Jamel Dean | Auburn |
| 2018 | Atl. | 90 | DT | Deadrin Senat | South Florida |
| 2018 | N.O. | 91 | WR | Tre'Quan Smith | Central Florida |
| 2018 | Pit. | 92 | OT | Chukwuma Okorafor | Western Michigan |
| 2018 | Jac. | 93 | S | Ronnie Harrison | Alabama |
| 2018 | T.B. | 94 | OT | Alex Cappa | Humboldt State |
| 2017 | Sea. | 90 | DB | • Shaquill Griffin | Central Florida |
| 2017 | Rams | 91 | S | John Johnson | Boston College |
| 2017 | Dal. | 92 | CB | Jourdan Lewis | Michigan |
| 2017 | G.B. | 93 | DT | Montravius Adams | Auburn |
| 2017 | Pit. | 94 | CB | Cameron Sutton | Tennessee |
| 2016 | Sea. | 90 | RB | C.J. Prosise | Notre Dame |
| 2016 | N.E. | 91 | QB | Jacoby Brissett | North Carolina State |
| 2016 | Ari. | 92 | CB | Brandon Williams | Texas A&M |
| 2016 | Cle. | 93 | QB | Cody Kessler | Southern Cal |
| 2016 | Sea. | 94 | TE | Nick Vannett | Ohio State |
| 2015 | Bal. | 90 | DT | Carl Davis | Iowa |
| 2015 | Dal. | 91 | OT | Chaz Green | Florida |
| 2015 | Den. | 92 | TE | Jeff Heuerman | Ohio State |
| 2015 | Ind. | 93 | DE | Henry Anderson | Stanford |
| 2015 | G.B. | 94 | WR | Ty Montgomery | Stanford |
—Ian Allan