Finding undervalued starting pitchers is key, and these 6 starters show signs of a strong 2025 season ahead.
Finding great starting pitcher values is key to putting together a winning fantasy team, and there’s no shortage of great buying opportunities heading into the 2025 draft season.
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Alcantara needs no introduction. The 2022 NL Cy Young winner appeared to be a throwback early in his career, nearing or exceeding 200 innings in the four full seasons from 2019-2023. During his Cy Young campaign, he led the league with 228.2 innings and netted a 2.28 ERA as a result of his high-octane sinker and great control. With the ball flying out more often in 2023, Alcantara’s ERA ballooned to 4.14 in 28 starts before he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of the year.
He didn’t pitch at all last season, and entered the year with an interesting price tag with an ADP hovering near 150 for most of the winter. Then we saw the radar gun readings in Spring Training, and they’re beautiful. Not only has Alcantara not lost a step, but his velocity has been consistently up from previous levels. For a pitcher with a career 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, the only question now is innings. We must wrestle the possibility of an innings cap as the Marlins try to keep Alcantara healthy and potentially position him for a trade with his history as a workhorse. Alcantara has never been a big strikeout pitcher, but the added velocity and durability prior to 2023 makes this an intriguing situation with upside that far exceeds his draft stock.
Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres
Fantasy managers early in the offseason don’t love uncertainty. There was plenty of uncertainty for Pivetta, as the long-time Phillie and Red Sox didn’t sign until mid-February. Without a home, Pivetta’s ADP was near 200 for much of the offseason.
Fantasy managers are also often late to adjust when a situation does become more certain. Despite a price that’s slowly increased, Pivetta’s ADP remains near 200 in March. Yet, over the last two years Pivetta ranks fifth in K% behind only Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, and Tarik Skubal. His ERA is loftier than that quartet as a direct result of the long ball, an issue that could be helped by the move out of the AL East and Fenway. There are questions about Pivetta’s potential workload, as he’s settled near 145 innings over the last two years, but there’s plenty of profit potential at his price.
Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays
We come to another potential injury rebound candidate. Rasmussen has a history of arm injuries, and underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow in 2023. Tampa Bay has understandably handled him carefully since the injury, effectively using him as a multi-inning reliever in the second half of last season and expressing their desire to limit his workload early in 2025.
Even with the workload limitations, the price is right with an ADP near 250. Rasmussen looked fully back when he returned last season, producing a dominant 5.83 K/BB ratio and 2.83 ERA in 28.2 innings with an outstanding 53% groundball rate. The impeccable command and groundball rate is what provides Rasmussen with such a high floor, as he’s produced a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last four seasons. Given his price, Rasmussen might only need to reach 100 innings to provide profit.
Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
The left-handed Bubic looked headed for a possible breakout season in 2023, showing an uptick of velocity in three starts with a resulting 8.00 K/BB. That increase in velocity likely also contributed to a torn elbow ligament, and the comeback has been slow as he worked in relief upon his return last season.
Bubic appears to be the frontrunner for the fifth starter job this Spring, and last year’s return shows big upside. Over 27 appearances, he had a 2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 7.80 K/BB ratio that slowed glimpses of what we saw prior to the surgery. It should be expected that Bubic’s velocity will be dialed back in a starter role, but there’s ample evidence of a new pitcher with huge upside at an ADP near 350.
Max Meyer, Miami Marlins
Returning from Tommy John surgery last season, Meyer impressed in April before the team sent him to the minors. The reasoning for the move was unclear, though likely workload and service time restrictions more than anything else, and he struggled when he returned in late July. With a final ERA above 5.00 and major home run issues, the hype train halted.
There’s a new echo in Spring Training, however. Meyer appears to be the favorite for the team’s fifth starter job following Braxton Garrett’s injury, and has added more weight and velocity in a few promising outings so far. The minor league track record of the former third overall draft choice is equally appealing, with a 3.17 ERA and 10.5 K/9 over three seasons. The market is underselling his upside with an ADP near 400.
German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
It’s a tough argument, but I will stick my nose out endorsing a pitcher making half his starts at Coors Field. Marquez has gone undrafted in most NFBC leagues and for good reason given the risk of Coors Field and his limited workload over the last two years due to elbow problems. However, Marquez has helped fantasy managers in the past and looks positioned to help again.
Marquez is a pure power pitcher with a respectable 4.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and nearly one strikeout per inning for his career. After being shut down for health reasons last season, he’s looked extremely healthy during Spring Training with an uptick in fastball velocity that’s averaged in the upper-90’s. He also has plenty to pitch for in his walk year, with the 30-year-old having a lot of incentive to stay on the mound and potentially net a big payday next offseason. The stat that should entice fantasy managers more than any other is Marquez’s numbers away from Coors Field, with a career 3.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP that’s extremely playable in most leagues. With the Rockies opening the year on the road, Marquez could be a plug-and-play immediately.
You can find fantasy baseball analysis in the 2025 Fantasy Baseball Index Draft Kit and Fantasy Baseball Index magazine.