Avoiding the closer busts is key on draft day, and these five have warning signs.
Closers are always fickle, and avoiding the busts in fantasy baseball can help avoid plenty of heartache. These five closers are overvalued heading into 2025 drafts.
Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles
The road to return has been long for Bautista, who required surgery for a torn elbow ligament in 2023 and then had a follow-up elbow surgery late in the year. After two fabulous seasons, the big right-hander failed to pitch in the majors last season and has been slow played in Spring Training. While the K/BB has been fine in his first four appearances, Bautista’s velocity is predictably down from previous levels, and the Orioles have already said he’s unlikely to pitch on back-to-back days at least early in the year.
The situation coming off an arm injury brings and with a limited workload brings some risk for Bautista. While he’s shown that he can be an elite closer, Bautsta’s upside could be capped. His ADP near 85 doesn’t reflect the risk profile, and his drafters should at least consider handicapping him with Seranthony Dominguez.
Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays
At his best, Fairbanks has been an elite closer for the Rays during his career. He has 56 saves over the last three seasons, and he’s had stretches like 2022 when he was arguably one of the best closers in the game. Unfortunately, chronic arm illnesses have been Fairbanks less than reliable, and those issues can to a head last season. Fairbanks saw his velocity and strikeout rate plunge over 46 appearances, posting less than one strikeout per inning for the first time in his career. It’s also notable that Fairbanks failed to reach 50 total appearances yet again.
Spring Training stats should be taken with a grain of salt, but the results have continued to be bleak so far. He’s walked four batters in 2.2 innings, drawing further ire after the struggles of last season. There’s no word that the Rays will begin the year at closer with anyone other than Fairbanks, but fantasy managers might have to take a wait-and-see approach to the situation. With an ADP near 175, the price is too high for the risk.
Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
Helsley was a clearly elite closer last season, leading the league with 49 saves on a team that struggled to finish near .500. He’s priced appropriately this season with an ADP of 66, which puts him just outside the top tier of closers like Josh Hader, Mason Miller, and Edwin Diaz. While a good closer, there are several factors that make the price risky.
Helsley has a bit of a health history, as he made only 33 appearances in 2023, and 2024 was the first time that he’s reached 60 appearances in the majors. He’s also on a team that’s likely to be worse this season, if Vegas win over/unders are any indication, and could potentially be put on the trade block as he enters free agency next offseason. Therefore, we can’t even guarantee Helsley will hold down a closer job all season, as we saw last year with Tanner Scott following the trade deadline. Given the price, there are safer closer players.
Ben Joyce, Los Angeles Angels
Joyce continues to make headlines for his incredible fastball velocity, and has reached nearly 104 mph on the radar gun this Spring. After adding a sinker last season, he became a much more effective MLB pitcher, getting his control in check and keeping the ball in the park. The result was a 2.08 ERA and some brief closer success down the stretch before he was shut down with arm issues in early September.
Already knocked out of the closer role following the signing of Jansen, Joyce is still being drafted as the heir apparent with an ADP of 372. While Joyce showed last season that he has the ability to be an effective pitcher, there’s both draft cost and opportunity cost of using a roster spot while future Hall of Famer Jansen closes games for at least the first half of the season. Joyce’s long arm health history is also a major concern that could make using a roster spot on him a futile endeavor.
Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres
Coming into last season and through Spring Training, the Padres didn’t commit to a closer. Suarez was seen as the favorite, but the team had several other interesting arms behind him. Added velocity made Suarez one of the buys of the year, however, with a 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 36 saves, and nine wins.
Entering Spring Training this year, the results have been ugly paired with velocity that’s been down. Suarez has allowed eight runs in 3.2 innings with four walks. It draws some not great memories of 2023, when he missed the first half of the season due to a shoulder injury. Unlike last year, the Padres bullpen is far more experienced, led by Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada, giving Suarez even less margin for error should his struggles carry over into the start of the season. With an ADP of 120, his price is hefty with the risk.
--Seth Trachtman
You can find fantasy baseball analysis in the 2025 Fantasy Baseball Index Draft Kit and Fantasy Baseball Index magazine.