Looking at the draft class of incoming rookie running backs, it's hard not to get excited. I've seen speculation that we could see as many as eight selected by the end of the third round. Unlikely in today's NFL, but not unprecedented.
The last four years, there have been 4, 7, 6 and 4 running backs selected in the first three rounds, so an average of just 5 per year taken that early. But in 2020, there were 11 selected in the first three rounds. That hasn't aged particularly well (last year, just three of those guys were regular starters: Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins and D'Andre Swift) but it happens.
What stands out from this particular draft class is how big some of these guys are.
I count four running backs from this year's class who are in that group of will or may be drafted by the end of round 3 who stand at least 6 feet tall and weighed 215-plus pounds at the combine. Size alone isn't enough to get a back drafted early, of course, but the bigger backs who have been drafted that early in recent years have tended to get their shot to put up numbers early on.
The table shows running backs of that size (6-0, 215 or more) selected in the first three rounds over the last dozen years, with their first-year numbers (Run-Rec-Total-TD). There have been 23 previous backs. (Also listed are four guys who fit the profile in this year's class, although all of them won't necessarily be drafted before round 4.)
Of those previous 23 bigger backs since 2013, 10 went over 1,000 total yards in their rookie seasons. Three more went over 800 total yards. Seem like pretty good odds.
From the exceptions, James Conner was stuck behind LeVeon Bell, and Trey Benson was stuck behind Conner as rookies. Jonathon Brooks was coming off injury. But a lot of guys involved in their offenses right away. Table sorted by total yards as rookies.
| BIGGER BACKS DRAFTED ROUNDS 1-3, 2013-PRESENT | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Rd | Player | Ht | Wt | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
| 2018 | 1 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 6.00 | 233 | 1307 | 721 | 2028 | 15 |
| 2016 | 1 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 6.00 | 225 | 1631 | 363 | 1994 | 16 |
| 2021 | 1 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 6.02 | 230 | 1200 | 467 | 1667 | 10 |
| 2017 | 1 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 6.01 | 230 | 1040 | 302 | 1342 | 10 |
| 2014 | 2 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 6.01 | 233 | 1124 | 215 | 1339 | 9 |
| 2015 | 1 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 6.01 | 222 | 1106 | 188 | 1294 | 10 |
| 2013 | 2 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 6.01 | 230 | 860 | 399 | 1259 | 8 |
| 2020 | 3 | Antonio Gibson, Wash. | 6.00 | 228 | 795 | 247 | 1042 | 11 |
| 2015 | 3 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 6.01 | 224 | 581 | 457 | 1038 | 13 |
| 2015 | 2 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 6.01 | 226 | 740 | 279 | 1019 | 3 |
| 2017 | 2 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 6.01 | 226 | 626 | 287 | 913 | 4 |
| 2022 | 3 | Brian Robinson, Wash. | 6.02 | 225 | 797 | 60 | 857 | 3 |
| 2015 | 1 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 6.01 | 215 | 641 | 192 | 833 | 0 |
| 2015 | 3 | Matt Jones, Wash. | 6.02 | 231 | 490 | 304 | 794 | 4 |
| 2016 | 2 | Derrick Henry, Tenn. | 6.02 | 247 | 490 | 137 | 627 | 5 |
| 2018 | 3 | Royce Freeman, Den. | 6.00 | 229 | 521 | 72 | 593 | 5 |
| 2017 | 3 | D'Onta Foreman, Hou. | 6.00 | 233 | 327 | 83 | 410 | 2 |
| 2014 | 2 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 6.00 | 230 | 333 | 68 | 401 | 4 |
| 2016 | 3 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. | 6.00 | 220 | 172 | 208 | 380 | 1 |
| 2024 | 3 | Trey Benson, Ariz. | 6.00 | 216 | 291 | 59 | 350 | 1 |
| 2020 | 2 | A.J. Dillon, G.B. | 6.00 | 247 | 242 | 21 | 263 | 2 |
| 2017 | 3 | James Conner, Pitt. | 6.01 | 233 | 144 | 0 | 144 | 0 |
| 2024 | 2 | Jonathon Brooks, Car. | 6.00 | 216 | 22 | 23 | 45 | 0 |
| 2025 | ? | Kaleb Johnson, Iowa | 6.01 | 224 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | ? | Omarion Hampton, N.C. | 6.00 | 221 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | ? | Quinshon Judkins, Ohio St. | 6.00 | 221 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | ? | Damien Martinez, Miami | 6.00 | 217 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Of the listed incoming rookies, North Carolina's Hampton (pictured) is the marquee guy. There's speculation he could be selected in the first round. He ran for over 1,500 yards with 16-17 touchdowns each of the last two seasons, and caught 67 passes, too. He's faster than you'd think (4.46 at the combine) and looks it, with a chaotic running style. Probably the 2nd running back drafted, both in the NFL and in rookie drafts, after Ashton Jeanty.
Iowa's Johnson is a guy I'll be interested in the right offense. Straight-ahead runner with an upright running style (plus he's 6-foot-1); he ran through some big holes in college and he'll probably need those in the pros. Judkins, like Hampton, is faster than you'd think for his size. Miami's Martinez dropped some weight (217 at the combine after weighing 10 pounds heavier at the Senior Bowl) and ran a 4.51, so I'm not exactly sure how NFL teams will see him; will they want the bigger or the lighter player.
Anyway, it's a good crop of running backs, and several guys with the size that teams could view them as featured runners. History suggests at least a couple will get opportunities to be factors right away.