A year ago seven wide receivers were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, including three top-10 picks. That's not happening this year, but there are some exciting prospects. Like Tetairoa McMillan.
The Arizona wideout will probably be the top wideout selected, and maybe in the top 10 picks. Neither of those estimations are certain, but definitely a first-rounder and one of the top 2 selected at the position. While the other likely candidate, Texas' Matthew Golden, is most notable for his speed (a 4.29 at the combine), McMillan stands out for his size. He measured 6-foot-4 and 219 pounds at the combine.
McMillan didn't work out at Indianapolis, which is usually a red flag. Marvin Harrison didn't run there last year, and the assumption is generally that they expect to post times that will hurt their draft stock rather than help it. McMillan did run the 40 at his pro day, but scouts reported times all over the map -- as low as 4.48, as high as 4.57. Hand-timed and less reliable, let's say he's somewhere in the 4.5 or 4.55 range. Considering his size, that's acceptable.
For comparison's sake of bigger wideouts, I looked at all the wide receivers from the last 20 years who weighed at least 210 pounds and went on to be selected in the first round. That gave me a group of 33 players. How many hits and busts in that group?
Table shows all the 210-plus wideouts selected in the first round since 2005. Their combine height and weight are shown, as is their 40 time. (With guys who didn't run at the combine, those times are marked with an asterisk; they were either pro day times, or estimated if they didn't run there either.)
Also shown are their best NFL season and rank in PPR leagues that year; table is sorted by that ranking. Of the 33 wideouts, 14 had at least one top-12 season; that's 42 percent. Three more had at least one top-20 season. That alone doesn't constitute a hit -- Kelvin Benjamin would not be considered an NFL success story -- but most of these guys had multiple strong seasons. It's too early to say on a pair of rookies from a year ago, Rome Odunze and Xavier Legette.
Of course, there are also a handful of really bad misses: Laquon Treadwell, N'Keal Harry, Jon Baldwin, and (it seems safe to say) Treylon Burks. McMillan will be selected earlier than most of those guys (in general looking at the table, guys drafted in the top 15 picks fare better than ones selected in the bottom half of the round, which make sense), so seems more reasonable to look at the ones selected earlier when projecting him.
| BIGGER WIDEOUTS SELECTED IN THE 1ST ROUND, 2005-2024 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Pk | Player | Ht | Wt | 40 | Best | No-Rec-TD | Rk |
| 2007 | 2 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 6.05 | 239 | 4.35 | 2012 | 122-1964-5 | 1 |
| 2013 | 27 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 6.01 | 218 | 4.51 | 2013 | 115-1572-11 | 1 |
| 2010 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 6.03 | 230 | *4.5 | 2012 | 92-1430-14 | 1 |
| 2011 | 6 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 6.03 | 220 | 4.39 | 2015 | 136-1871-9 | 2 |
| 2010 | 24 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 6.02 | 224 | *4.52 | 2023 | 92-1382-12 | 3 |
| 2014 | 7 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 6.05 | 231 | 4.46 | 2016 | 96-1321-12 | 3 |
| 2011 | 4 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 6.04 | 211 | 4.49 | 2013 | 98-1426-11 | 4 |
| 2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 6.03 | 210 | *4.45 | 2007 | 80-1289-16 | 4 |
| 2007 | 23 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 6.02 | 221 | 4.57 | 2010 | 72-1162-15 | 4 |
| 2022 | 8 | Drake London, Atl. | 6.04 | 219 | *4.5 | 2024 | 100-1271-9 | 5 |
| 2018 | 24 | D.J. Moore, Car. | 6.00 | 210 | 4.42 | 2011 | 96-1364-9 | 6 |
| 2009 | 29 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 6.01 | 212 | 4.63 | 2010 | 79-1052-11 | 8 |
| 2015 | 4 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 6.01 | 211 | 4.42 | 2022 | 78-1160-9 | 10 |
| 2009 | 10 | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 6.01 | 215 | *4.6 | 2016 | 89-1003-8 | 12 |
| 2005 | 10 | Mike Williams, Det. | 6.05 | 229 | 4.57 | 2021 | 76-1146-9 | 13 |
| 2014 | 28 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 6.05 | 240 | 4.61 | 2014 | 73-1008-9 | 16 |
| 2014 | 4 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 6.01 | 211 | 4.39 | 2015 | 60-1047-9 | 20 |
| 2007 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 6.02 | 214 | 4.42 | 2009 | 45-722-10 | 26 |
| 2012 | 13 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 6.03 | 225 | 4.40 | 2013 | 65-1041-5 | 27 |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 6.02 | 210 | 4.30 | 2018 | 64-975-4 | 28 |
| 2009 | 30 | Kenny Britt, Tenn. | 6.03 | 218 | *4.55 | 2016 | 68-1002-5 | 28 |
| 2012 | 5 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 6.01 | 210 | *4.56 | 2012 | 64-865-5 | 29 |
| 2005 | 21 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 6.06 | 237 | *4.4 | 2008 | 65-761-2 | 37 |
| 2013 | 29 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 6.02 | 220 | 4.42 | 2013 | 45-469-9 | 38 |
| 2017 | 7 | Mike Williams, LAC | 6.04 | 218 | *4.49 | 2010 | 65-751-2 | 41 |
| 2024 | 9 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 6.03 | 212 | 4.45 | 2024 | 54-734-3 | 49 |
| 2015 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 6.02 | 212 | *4.25 | 2019 | 36-645-6 | 51 |
| 2024 | 32 | Xavier Legette, Car. | 6.01 | 221 | 4.39 | 2024 | 49-497-4 | 61 |
| 2022 | 18 | Treylon Burks, Tenn. | 6.02 | 225 | 4.55 | 2022 | 33-444-2 | 78 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 6.02 | 210 | *4.63 | 2021 | 33-434-1 | 90 |
| 2019 | 32 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 6.02 | 228 | 4.53 | 2020 | 33-309-2 | 98 |
| 2011 | 26 | Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 6.04 | 228 | 4.50 | 2012 | 20-325-1 | 101 |
| 2015 | 7 | Kevin White, Chi. | 6.03 | 215 | 4.35 | 2016 | 19-187-0 | 123 |
I'm in on McMillan. Looking at the numbers and watching him play, he doesn't look like he'll have any problem getting separation; he averaged over 15 yards per reception in all three college seasons. Twice last year he went over 200 receiving yards, with a ridiculous game (10 for 304 with 4 TDs) against New Mexico.
At 6-4, he wears his weight well; identical measurements to Drake London. He's not comparable to N'Keal Harry, another State of Arizona wideout (Arizona State) who was 9 pounds heavier, 2 inches shorter, and selected later than McMillan will be (and washed out quickly).
Bottom line, I don't see any reason to hold his size against him. Hopefully he ends up on the right team to start producing.
--Andy Richardson