I notice that the league has a glut right now of low-scoring tight ends. That is, tight ends who catch a lot of passes but don’t tend to get in the end zone.
Trey McBride (pictured) leads the way. He’s caught 221 passes in his first three seasons, the most ever by a tight end. But only 6 of those have gone for touchdowns.
Dalton Kincaid was a between-the-20s tight end last year for the Bills. Kyle Pitts hasn’t been the red zone monster many were expecting. Even Brock Bowers offset a record-setting rookie season by scoring on only 5 of his 112 catches.
Playing around with the numbers, I see there have been 56 tight ends in the 32-team era who’ve caught at least 100 passes in their first three seasons. Of that group, 10 have scored on less than 5 percent of their receptions. Of those 10, six are players currently in the league who have not yet completed their rookie contracts.
We are not in an era, apparently, where tight ends are dominating in the red zone.
| LOW-SCORING TIGHT ENDS (by TD percentage) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Player | No | Yards | TD | Pct |
| 2002 | Eric Johnson, S.F. | 118 | 1146 | 2 | 1.7% |
| 2022 | • Trey McBride, Ari. | 221 | 2236 | 6 | 2.7% |
| 2023 | • Dalton Kincaid, Buff. | 117 | 1121 | 4 | 3.4% |
| 2021 | • Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 149 | 2049 | 6 | 4.0% |
| 2007 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 166 | 2027 | 7 | 4.2% |
| 2022 | • Chig Okonkwo, Ten. | 138 | 1457 | 6 | 4.3% |
| 2024 | • Brock Bowers, L.V. | 112 | 1194 | 5 | 4.5% |
| 2005 | Bo Scaife, Ten. | 112 | 1064 | 5 | 4.5% |
| 2004 | Kellen Winslow, Cle. | 176 | 2031 | 8 | 4.5% |
| 2022 | • Jake Ferguson, Dall. | 149 | 1429 | 7 | 4.7% |
| 2014 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 133 | 1496 | 7 | 5.3% |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 169 | 2024 | 9 | 5.3% |
| 2002 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 183 | 2095 | 10 | 5.5% |
| 2017 | George Kittle, S.F. | 216 | 2945 | 12 | 5.6% |
| 2019 | Noah Fant, Den. | 170 | 1905 | 10 | 5.9% |
| 2009 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 184 | 1845 | 11 | 6.0% |
| 2006 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 167 | 1982 | 10 | 6.0% |
| 2002 | Randy McMichael, Mia. | 161 | 1874 | 10 | 6.2% |
| 2020 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | 138 | 1399 | 9 | 6.5% |
| 2022 | • Cade Otton, T.B. | 148 | 1446 | 10 | 6.8% |
| 2008 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 148 | 1744 | 10 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 188 | 2084 | 13 | 6.9% |
| 2004 | Ben Troupe, Ten. | 101 | 1009 | 7 | 6.9% |
| 2013 | Mychal Rivera, Oak. | 128 | 1221 | 9 | 7.0% |
| 2021 | • Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 155 | 1537 | 11 | 7.1% |
| 2016 | Austin Hooper, Atl. | 139 | 1457 | 10 | 7.2% |
| 2013 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 139 | 1737 | 10 | 7.2% |
| 2002 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 125 | 1529 | 9 | 7.2% |
| 2003 | L.J. Smith, Phil. | 122 | 1380 | 9 | 7.4% |
| 2005 | Alex Smith, T.B. | 108 | 1002 | 8 | 7.4% |
| 2019 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 160 | 1673 | 12 | 7.5% |
| 2011 | Jordan Cameron, Cle. | 106 | 1176 | 8 | 7.5% |
| 2013 | Jordan Reed, Was. | 182 | 1916 | 14 | 7.7% |
| 2017 | Evan Engram, NYG | 153 | 1766 | 12 | 7.8% |
| 2007 | Brent Celek, Phil. | 119 | 1467 | 10 | 8.4% |
| 2010 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 172 | 1804 | 15 | 8.7% |
| 2018 | Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 126 | 1475 | 11 | 8.7% |
| 2006 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 103 | 1132 | 9 | 8.7% |
| 2018 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 137 | 1465 | 12 | 8.8% |
| 2008 | John Carlson, Sea. | 137 | 1519 | 13 | 9.5% |
| 2010 | Dennis Pitta, Balt. | 102 | 1075 | 10 | 9.8% |
| 2007 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 153 | 1577 | 15 | 9.8% |
| 2010 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 175 | 1956 | 18 | 10.3% |
| 2012 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 129 | 1663 | 14 | 10.9% |
| 2014 | Richard Rodgers, G.B. | 108 | 1006 | 12 | 11.1% |
| 2006 | Tony Scheffler, Den. | 107 | 1480 | 12 | 11.2% |
| 2004 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 165 | 1822 | 19 | 11.5% |
| 2010 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 215 | 2648 | 25 | 11.6% |
| 2023 | • Sam LaPorta, Det. | 146 | 1615 | 17 | 11.6% |
| 2018 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 156 | 2105 | 20 | 12.8% |
| 2003 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 194 | 2454 | 25 | 12.9% |
| 2022 | • Isaiah Likely, Balt. | 108 | 1261 | 14 | 13.0% |
| 2011 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 109 | 1055 | 15 | 13.8% |
| 2019 | Dawson Knox, Buff. | 101 | 1263 | 14 | 13.9% |
| 2005 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 120 | 1418 | 18 | 15.0% |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 187 | 2663 | 38 | 20.3% |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
The logical step is to ponder whether this is a predictive stat. That is, when a tight end catches tons of passes early but isn’t scoring touchdowns, should be assume he’ll tend to remain that way for the bulk of his career? Or is this just an outlier issue, determined more by chance (with a tight end who didn’t score much early in his career just as likely as another guy to start finding the end zone later)?
We can look at the tight ends from the file. Of those guys who scored on fewer than 5 percent of their catches in their first three seasons, I don’t see any of them ever catching more than 5 TDs in a season. But five managed to reach the 5 level, which is a decent total for a low-scoring position.
We also have the trouble of a limited sample size, with only 19 seasons, with all but one of them coming from only four tight ends. Bo Scaife and Eric Johnson came into the league as late-round picks, which could be factored in. And Kellen Winslow shredded his knee in a motorcycle accident.
| LOW-SCORING TIGHT ENDS -- REST OF CAREER | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | Rec | Yds | TD | Pct | PPR | Rk |
| 2007 | Kellen Winslow, Cle. | 4 | 82 | 1106 | 5 | 6.1% | 224.6 | 4 |
| 2009 | Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 6 | 77 | 884 | 5 | 6.5% | 196.1 | 7 |
| 2004 | Eric Johnson, S.F. | 4 | 82 | 825 | 2 | 2.4% | 176.5 | 5 |
| 2010 | Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 7 | 66 | 730 | 5 | 7.6% | 169.0 | 7 |
| 2011 | Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 8 | 75 | 763 | 2 | 2.7% | 167.3 | 12 |
| 2010 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 4 | 60 | 685 | 5 | 8.3% | 158.5 | 10 |
| 2024 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 4 | 47 | 602 | 4 | 8.5% | 131.2 | 15 |
| 2008 | Bo Scaife, Ten. | 4 | 58 | 561 | 2 | 3.4% | 126.1 | 11 |
| 2008 | Kellen Winslow, Cle. | 5 | 43 | 428 | 3 | 7.0% | 103.8 | 18 |
| 2013 | Zach Miller, Sea. | 7 | 33 | 387 | 5 | 15.2% | 101.7 | 25 |
| 2007 | Eric Johnson, N.O. | 7 | 48 | 378 | 2 | 4.2% | 97.8 | 20 |
| 2012 | Zach Miller, Sea. | 6 | 38 | 396 | 3 | 7.9% | 95.6 | 30 |
| 2009 | Bo Scaife, Ten. | 5 | 45 | 440 | 1 | 2.2% | 95.0 | 22 |
| 2010 | Bo Scaife, Ten. | 6 | 36 | 318 | 4 | 11.1% | 91.8 | 29 |
| 2013 | Kellen Winslow, NYJ | 10 | 31 | 388 | 2 | 6.5% | 81.8 | 33 |
| 2006 | Eric Johnson, S.F. | 6 | 34 | 292 | 2 | 5.9% | 75.2 | 22 |
| 2011 | Zach Miller, Sea. | 5 | 25 | 233 | 0 | 0.0% | 48.3 | 44 |
| 2014 | Zach Miller, Sea. | 8 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 0.0% | 13.6 | 78 |
| 2012 | Kellen Winslow, N.E. | 9 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 2.2 | 98 |
If we go just above the 5 percent threshold, we see Zach Ertz and George Kittle as guys who didn’t score much early in their careers. They later became among the very best red-zone options. And Eric Ebron, despite being a disastrous pick for the Lions, had that one monster-scoring year for the Colts.
I would not be looking to discount McBride or Bowers.
—Ian Allan