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April 07, 2025

Christian McCaffrey's race against Father Time

A return to greatness looks unlikely

The 49ers traded Jordan Mason to the Vikings. I guess this means they have some confidence Christian McCaffrey can get back to being an elite back? Either that, or they really like Isaac Guerendo.

To me, McCaffrey looks like a shaky bet. He’s had some injuries, and it’s a position where careers don’t tend to last for long. He’ll be 29 in June.

I played around with some numbers on this, and the historical precedents aren’t very good. Ten times previously there have been 29-year-old running backs who (like McCaffrey) have gone over 2,000 combined yards in a season twice in their careers. Of those 10 guys, only one finished with top-5 numbers. Only four others cracked the top 10.

It's a position where guys tend to wear down, especially when asked to handle huge workloads. Of those 10 backs, only one averaged better than 4.5 yards per carry. Four averaged 3.9 or less.

Most of these running backs, by the way, seemed to have more left in the tank than McCaffrey. He’s got a more extensive injury history than any of them.

29-YEAR-OLDS WITH TWO 2,000-YARD SEASONS
YearPlayerGRunRecTotTDPPRRk
1976O.J. Simpson, Buff.141,5032591,7629252.23
2008LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.161,1104261,53612277.66
1989Roger Craig, S.F.161,0544731,5277243.76
1998Emmitt Smith, Dall.161,3321751,50715267.77
2002Marshall Faulk, St.L.149535371,49010289.010
1989Eric Dickerson, Ind.151,3112111,5228230.211
2007Edgerrin James, Ari.161,2222041,4267208.613
1995Thurman Thomas, Buff.141,0052201,2258196.520
2008Larry Johnson, K.C.12874749485141.040
2001Terrell Davis, Den.870169770089.048
2025Christian McCaffrey, S.F.???????

As long as I’ve got the numbers in front of me, I’ll give you the 30-year-olds as well. (Guys who were a year older than McCaffrey is heading into this season.) I see two finished with big numbers (going over 2,000 combined yards). But 75 percent of these backs didn’t finish with top-10 numbers (using PPR scoring).

There are 12 backs on this age-30 chart, and half averaged under 4 yards per carry. Half of them ranked outside the top 20 at their position. None averaged better than 4.4 per attempt.

I’m of the school of thought that McCaffrey is worth a roll of the dice. With that pass-catching ability, he can put up big numbers in a hurry. Somebody needs to take him. But I am hopeful that somebody else in my league picks him before it reaches the point where I’m pulling the trigger. I think he’s far more likely to miss rather than hit.

30-YEAR-OLDS WITH TWO 2,000-YARD SEASONS
YearPlayerGRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2003Priest Holmes, K.C.161,4206902,11027447.01
1984Walter Payton, Chi.161,6843682,05211326.64
1999Emmitt Smith, Dall.151,3971191,51613256.67
1998Barry Sanders, Det.161,4912891,7804239.011
1996Thurman Thomas, Buff.151,0332541,2878202.712
2003Marshall Faulk, St.L.118182901,10811221.816
2009LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1473015488412180.424
1990Eric Dickerson, Ind.11677927694118.935
1990Roger Craig, S.F.11439201640195.049
1977O.J. Simpson, Buff.7557138695085.554
2009Larry Johnson, 2TM1458180661081.155
2008Edgerrin James, Ari.1351485599391.956

(And to clarify on the charts above, you’re not looking at all 29-year-olds or all 30-year-olds. Derrick Henry at 30 went for 2,114 yards last year. Sanders, Holmes and Payton went over 2,000 yards at 29, and Tiki Barber did it at 30. What you’re looking at instead are players who had already gone over 2,000 yards twice – how did those guys then do in their seasons?)

—Ian Allan

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