When it comes to evaluating an incoming NFL Draft cohort, establishing a baseline opinion on the players is useful for measuring against which team drafts them, and where. This article (which will receive ongoing updates leading up to the NFL Draft) will hopefully help inform your baseline.
In the months preceding the 2023 NFL Draft, I ate all the tape. Plenty of Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but also the guys who were just hoping to get drafted: the Zach Evanses, Dewayne McBrides and Xavier Hutchinsons of the world, along with most every guy in between.
So, I went into that draft with reasonably strong positions on a few guys who were on track to be Day 2, maybe early Day 3 selections. And while I had my misses (thanks for nothing, Israel Abanikanda), four guys I was keen to see how they landed after Day 1 of that draft were Rashee Rice, Sam LaPorta, Cedric Tillman and Chase Brown. Obviously, Rice and LaPorta managed platonic ideal landing spots and moved up my board accordingly, allowing me to get them in a large number of drafts. Tillman's landing spot was... much less good, so it was with a heavy heart I had to bump him down a couple spots - still got him in a couple leagues, but fewer.
That is what we are trying to do here; these are not definitive rankings, and even in the run up to the draft two weeks from now there will likely be a fair amount of tweaking here. This is a baseline for us to measure against how the chips fall in two weeks and adjust accordingly.
I went back and forth over whether to structure this for 1QB or superflex/2QB formats (which have become quite popular in recent years). I play primarily superflex leagues right now, so I decided to stick with that since that's how my brain is currently calibrated. Obviously, you will want to move the first five QBs down the board significantly in traditional 1QB formats, and the rest of them off the board entirely.
With that caveat out of the way, here are my ranking tiers for the top 50 rookies ahead of the 2025 NFL Draft:
| Tier 1: Cream of the Crop | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | Team | Note | |||
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | Boise State | Consensus top pick in dynasty; biggest RB prospect since Bijan - maybe since Barkley | |||
| Cam Ward | QB | Miami | Has separated from Shedeur, should go 1st overall in NFL Draft. 'More experienced Caleb Williams' comes to mind | |||
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Arizona | Confirmed 6'4" with catch radius to match. Probably would not be ahead of Hampton if RB class wasn't deep as the Congo | |||
| Omarion Hampton | RB | UNC | Built like Saquon Jr.; may join Jeanty as NFL first rounder | |||
| Tyler Warren | TE | Penn State | Warren may be the go-to prescription for Brock Bowers FOMO | |||
| Tier 2: Likely Stars | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | Team | Note | |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OSU | Hampton may have the ceiling edge, but Henderson's explosive play-maximizing leaps off the screen | |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | OSU | Could easily turn out to be the best back in the class not named Jeanty | |
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | CU | Now the consensus QB2; will his Day 1 slide be brief or protracted? | |
| Kaleb Johnson | RB | Iowa | Built like a tank; will he move like one at the next level? | |
| Travis Hunter | WR/ CB | CU | Would easily be WR1 over McMillan if not for NFL usage concerns | |
| Tier 3: Ceiling Galore, Iffy Floor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | Team | Note | |
| Luther Burden | WR | Mizzou | Followed up huge 2023 with a dud; was the '25 WR1 in some circles just eight months ago | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | OSU | Most would have him next tier up; concerned he's all Robin, no Batman - "4.3 speed" tested as 4.5 speed | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | UT | Many would have him next tier up; sub-4.3 40 cemented his climb to Day 1 status but tape just solid to me - late bloomer | |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | Tenn | Hugely productive in lone season as 'undersized' (5'8", 200) workhorse; could be next Kyren/Bucky | |
| Colston Loveland | TE | U of M | Like Warren, another 6'5" move TE who can operate outside some and create on his own | |
| RJ Harvey | RB | UCF | At 5'8 with huge collegiate production and 4.4 speed, Harvey is Jeanty on a budget - definite sleeper | |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | ASU | From unknown to Heisman consideration, it's time to take Skattebo seriously | |
| Devin Neal | RB | KU | Four-year starter, he's a jack of all trades and reminds me of another Devin: Devin Singletary | |
| Jaxson Dart | QB | Ole Miss | Huge range of outcomes: could be Bo Nix, could be Zach Wilson | |
| Damien Martinez | RB | Miami | Productive, big and plenty athletic - would have been a top 5 RB in 2024 class | |
| Jalen Milroe | QB | Alabama | The developmental dual threat is reportedly moving up boards - perhaps into first round. Had 32 rush TDs last two seasons | |
| Tre Harris | WR | Ole Miss | Older and narrow route tree; could make an NFL living as a Mike Williams-esque man coverage specialist | |
| Quinn Ewers | QB | UT | Stock near an all-time low, Ewers could still land as the heir apparent for an NFL team on Day 2 | |
| Tier 4: Fortune Favors the Bold | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | Team | Note | |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | VT | Absurd combine numbers and excellent advanced metrics; more than a couple NFL OCs want this guy | |
| Jayden Higgins | WR | Iowa State | The only true big at WR in the class outside of McMillan; his game is projectable, and NFL teams will love his ability to live outside when needed | |
| DJ Giddens | RB | KSU | Followed highly productive run at K-State with Guerendonian combine testing; did I mention this RB class is deep? | |
| Jaylin Noel | WR | Iowa State | Bigger, faster Jordan Addison? Or bigger, faster Josh Downs? Either way our interest is piqued | |
| Will Howard | QB | OSU | Right place, right time: Howard's one year with Chip Kelly bumped him from probable UDFA to an early Day 3 pick trajectory | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | BGSU | At 6'3/240 with 4.7 speed he's dangerously tweenerish, but it would be irresponsible to ignore Fannin's utter dominance: he processed 43% of the entire 2024 Falcons' pass offense | |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | SU | The wideout equivalent of a 'three and D' player, Ayomanor's size, linear speed and run blocking will likely be more valuable to an NFL team than to your dynasty team | |
| Ollie Gordon | RB | OK State | The Skattebo of 2023, Gordon's disastrous final collegiate season - on and off the field - has taken him from top-100 pick to possible UDFA. Physically very similar to Kaleb Johnson | |
| Kyle Williams | WR | Wazzu | Shooting up the boards of fantasy draftniks far and wide - like way up | |
| Tahj Brooks | RB | TTU | Not huge or fast, Brooks is one of three in class coming off consecutive 1500-yd seasons; led college football in MTF in 2023 | |
| Jack Bech | WR | TCU | He probably belongs higher, but he's niche-y enough that we need to see landing spot first. Somebody's gonna fall in like with him though | |
| Gunnar Helm | TE | UT | Says he ran 4.8 combine 40 on sprained ankle; I think his tape corroborates that, plenty athletic and YACish | |
| Terrance Ferguson | TE | UO | The anti-Helm, blew up the Combine but meager collegiate production. Could be Brenton Strange, could be Luke Musgrave | |
| Elijah Arroyo | TE | Miami | Cam Ward definitely helped, but Arroyo is another 6'5", plus mover who ran routes more like a wide receiver at times | |
| Jordan James | RB | UO | Very little fanfare for a guy who was the lead back for top-ranked Oregon Ducks last year | |
| Raheim Sanders | RB | SC | Injuries have derailed him after big 2022, but any guy called 'Rocket' is worth keeping tabs on - even if he goes undrafted | |
| Tier 5: Are You Feeling Lucky? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Position | Team | Note |
| Mason Taylor | TE | LSU | Jason's kid has NFL size and athleticism, but only six TDs in three seasons |
| Trevor Etienne | RB | UGA | Travis' kid brother is smaller, couldn't command more than change of pace role at Florida or Georgia. NFL caliber speed testing though |
| Savion Williams | WR? | TCU | 6'4", 222 lbs with 4.48 speed - but maybe can't play any position properly. Cordarrelle Patterson ceiling, but not even a Laviska Shenault floor |
| Nick Nash | WR | SJSU | Dominated MWC in second season after switch from QB to WR, but middling athleticism. Will be comped to Nacua, but he's already a year older than him |
| Xavier Restrepo | WR | Miami | Plenty productive in two seasons as starter, but very hard to be successful at next level at 5'10" with 4.8 speed |
| Kyle McCord | QB | Syr | Led nation in completions, attempts, passing yards and interceptions after Ohio State departure. Should be Day 3 pick or priority UDFA |
| Brashard Smith | RB | SMU | Probably doomed by the RB depth in the cohort, but his one year run at SMU should get him drafted. Testing comps are a graveyard of names that did not make it in the NFL |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | RU | Definitely the 'Rudy' of the class with two excellent seasons as Rutgers' lead back, absolute honey badger fighting for additional yards. But 'poor man's Tahj Brooks' is damning faint praise |
| Sam Brown | WR | Miami | Further underscoring how good Cam Ward was last year is the second of his three main receiving weapons here in Tier 5. Brown's a big jump ball specialist with good speed |
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | UO | FBS' all-time passing touchdown leader arrives to the NFL hoping to compete for a backup job somewhere. He's 5'11" and will be 25 in December |
| Tai Felton | WR | UMD | Conformationally unusual, Felton measured 6'1" with arms barely longer than those of Zay Flowers. Hugely productive final season at Maryland and legit 4.4 speed |
—Luke Wilson