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Joe Mixon and 29-year-old running backs

Mixon comes off productive debut with Texans

I’m nervous about Joe Mixon. He was great last year, but I worry about his ability to keep it up.

The numbers last year were pretty phenomenal. Including the playoffs, he played 14 full games, and he finished with 100-plus yards and a touchdown in nine in those games.

But the Texans have a new offensive coordinator, and I’m not confident their line will be much better. More notably, Mixon will be 29 on opening day; that’s getting up there for the running back position. (The Bengals, of course, chose to move on from Mixon last year.)

If we look at other Mixon-type backs, the numbers suggest there will be a statistical dip. That is, take the last 30 running backs who ran for 1,000 yards when they were 28 years old. Then look at how they performed the next season, and there are a lot more hits than misses.

When said players were 28 years old, their numbers looked like this …

28-YEAR-OLDS RUNNING FOR 1,000 YARDS
YearPlayerGAttYdsAvgTDReceivingPPRRk
2002Corey Dillon, Cin.1631413114.2743-298-0245.916
2003Tiki Barber, NYG1627812164.4269-461-1256.711
2004Fred Taylor, Jac.1426012244.7236-345-1210.919
2005Shaun Alexander, Sea.1637018805.12715-78-1378.81
2006Deuce McAllister, N.O.1524410574.31030-198-0221.516
2006Edgerrin James, Ari.1633711593.4638-217-0211.617
2006Thomas Jones, Chi.1629612104.1636-154-0208.218
2006Travis Henry, Ten.1427012114.5718-78-0190.923
2007Brian Westbrook, Phil.1527813334.8790-771-5372.41
2007Jamal Lewis, Cle.1529813044.4930-248-2251.26
2007LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1631514744.71560-475-3367.82
2008Derrick Ward, NYG1618210255.6241-384-0193.920
2009Fred Jackson, Buff.1623710624.5246-371-2218.713
2010Cedric Benson, Cin.1632111113.5728-178-1206.916
2010Michael Turner, Atl.1633413714.11212-85-0229.614
2011Frank Gore, S.F.1628212114.3817-114-0197.517
2011Steven Jackson, St.L.1526011454.4542-333-1225.810
2013Adrian Peterson, Min.1427912664.51029-171-1238.710
2013Chris Johnson, Ten.1627910773.9642-345-4244.29
2013Matt Forte, Chi.1628913394.6974-594-3341.32
2013Reggie Bush, Det.1422310064.5454-506-3247.27
2014Arian Foster, Hou.1326012464.8838-327-5277.65
2014Jamaal Charles, K.C.1520610335.0940-291-5256.47
2014Marshawn Lynch, Sea.1628013064.71337-367-4306.34
2015Darren McFadden, Dall.1623910894.6340-328-0201.713
2016DeMarco Murray, Ten.1629312874.4953-377-3295.95
2016LeSean McCoy, Buff.1523412675.41350-356-1298.34
2017Mark Ingram, N.O.1623011244.91258-416-0284.06
2022Aaron Jones, G.B.1721311215.3259-395-5254.67
2022Derrick Henry, Ten.1634915384.41333-398-0308.84
2023James Conner, Ari.1320810405.0727-165-2201.519
2024Joe Mixon, Hou.1424510164.21136-309-1240.517

Of those 30 backs, all but seven averaged fewer yards per carry. Only five of those players finished with better numbers (using PPR scoring). If you want to look at stats per game, allowing for more of an apples-to-apples comparison, then six of the 30 averaged better numbers.

In the chart below, the backs who finished with better over stats are tagged with black dots.

THOSE SAME BACKS IN THEIR NEXT SEASONS
YearPlayerGAttYdsAvgTDRecPPRRk
2003Corey Dillon, Cin.131385413.9211-71-084.246
2004• Tiki Barber, NYG1632215184.71352-578-2351.61
2005Fred Taylor, Jac.111947874.1313-83-0118.036
2006Shaun Alexander, Sea.102528963.6712-48-0148.433
2007Edgerrin James, Ari.1632412223.8724-204-0208.613
2007Thomas Jones, NYJ1631011193.6128-217-1173.622
2007Travis Henry, Den.121676914.147-65-0106.647
2007Deuce McAllister, N.O.324923.804-15-014.7115
2008• LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1629211103.81152-426-1277.66
2008Jamal Lewis, Cle.1627910023.6423-178-0165.030
2008Brian Westbrook, Phil.142339364.0954-402-5271.88
2009Derrick Ward, T.B.141144093.6120-150-293.949
2010Fred Jackson, Buff.162229274.2531-215-2187.222
2011Cedric Benson, Cin.1527310673.9615-82-0165.926
2011Michael Turner, Atl.1630113404.51117-168-0233.88
2012• Frank Gore, S.F.1625812144.7828-234-1232.810
2012Steven Jackson, St.L.1625810454.1438-321-0200.617
2014• Matt Forte, Chi.1626610383.96102-808-4350.63
2014Reggie Bush, Det.11762973.9240-253-0107.042
2014Chris Johnson, NYJ161556634.3124-151-1117.439
2014Adrian Peterson, Min.121753.602-18-011.3127
2015Jamaal Charles, K.C.5713645.1421-177-1105.151
2015Arian Foster, Hou.4631632.6122-227-279.065
2015Marshawn Lynch, Sea.71114173.8313-80-082.761
2016Darren McFadden, Dall.324873.603-17-013.4116
2017LeSean McCoy, Buff.1628711384.0659-448-2265.67
2017DeMarco Murray, Ten.151846593.6639-266-1173.521
2018Mark Ingram, N.O.121386454.7621-170-1144.532
2023Derrick Henry, Ten.1728011674.21228-214-0246.89
2023Aaron Jones, G.B.111426564.6230-233-1136.938
2024• James Conner, Ari.1623610944.6847-414-1255.811
2025Joe Mixon, Hou.????????

Of the 30 backs in this little study, they declined by an average of 519 yards (both rushing and receiving) and they averaged 4 fewer touchdowns while playing in an average of 2.9 fewer games. It’s just tough to keep it going at the running back position.

Anybody who’s played much fantasy football knows how common it is for running backs selected in the second and third rounds to turn into afterthoughts in a hurry.

—Ian Allan

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