I’m nervous about Joe Mixon. He was great last year, but I worry about his ability to keep it up.
The numbers last year were pretty phenomenal. Including the playoffs, he played 14 full games, and he finished with 100-plus yards and a touchdown in nine in those games.
But the Texans have a new offensive coordinator, and I’m not confident their line will be much better. More notably, Mixon will be 29 on opening day; that’s getting up there for the running back position. (The Bengals, of course, chose to move on from Mixon last year.)
If we look at other Mixon-type backs, the numbers suggest there will be a statistical dip. That is, take the last 30 running backs who ran for 1,000 yards when they were 28 years old. Then look at how they performed the next season, and there are a lot more hits than misses.
When said players were 28 years old, their numbers looked like this …
28-YEAR-OLDS RUNNING FOR 1,000 YARDS | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Receiving | PPR | Rk |
2002 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 16 | 314 | 1311 | 4.2 | 7 | 43-298-0 | 245.9 | 16 |
2003 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 16 | 278 | 1216 | 4.4 | 2 | 69-461-1 | 256.7 | 11 |
2004 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 14 | 260 | 1224 | 4.7 | 2 | 36-345-1 | 210.9 | 19 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 16 | 370 | 1880 | 5.1 | 27 | 15-78-1 | 378.8 | 1 |
2006 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 15 | 244 | 1057 | 4.3 | 10 | 30-198-0 | 221.5 | 16 |
2006 | Edgerrin James, Ari. | 16 | 337 | 1159 | 3.4 | 6 | 38-217-0 | 211.6 | 17 |
2006 | Thomas Jones, Chi. | 16 | 296 | 1210 | 4.1 | 6 | 36-154-0 | 208.2 | 18 |
2006 | Travis Henry, Ten. | 14 | 270 | 1211 | 4.5 | 7 | 18-78-0 | 190.9 | 23 |
2007 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 15 | 278 | 1333 | 4.8 | 7 | 90-771-5 | 372.4 | 1 |
2007 | Jamal Lewis, Cle. | 15 | 298 | 1304 | 4.4 | 9 | 30-248-2 | 251.2 | 6 |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 315 | 1474 | 4.7 | 15 | 60-475-3 | 367.8 | 2 |
2008 | Derrick Ward, NYG | 16 | 182 | 1025 | 5.6 | 2 | 41-384-0 | 193.9 | 20 |
2009 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 16 | 237 | 1062 | 4.5 | 2 | 46-371-2 | 218.7 | 13 |
2010 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 16 | 321 | 1111 | 3.5 | 7 | 28-178-1 | 206.9 | 16 |
2010 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 16 | 334 | 1371 | 4.1 | 12 | 12-85-0 | 229.6 | 14 |
2011 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 16 | 282 | 1211 | 4.3 | 8 | 17-114-0 | 197.5 | 17 |
2011 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 15 | 260 | 1145 | 4.4 | 5 | 42-333-1 | 225.8 | 10 |
2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 14 | 279 | 1266 | 4.5 | 10 | 29-171-1 | 238.7 | 10 |
2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 16 | 279 | 1077 | 3.9 | 6 | 42-345-4 | 244.2 | 9 |
2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 16 | 289 | 1339 | 4.6 | 9 | 74-594-3 | 341.3 | 2 |
2013 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 14 | 223 | 1006 | 4.5 | 4 | 54-506-3 | 247.2 | 7 |
2014 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 13 | 260 | 1246 | 4.8 | 8 | 38-327-5 | 277.6 | 5 |
2014 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 15 | 206 | 1033 | 5.0 | 9 | 40-291-5 | 256.4 | 7 |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 16 | 280 | 1306 | 4.7 | 13 | 37-367-4 | 306.3 | 4 |
2015 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 16 | 239 | 1089 | 4.6 | 3 | 40-328-0 | 201.7 | 13 |
2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 16 | 293 | 1287 | 4.4 | 9 | 53-377-3 | 295.9 | 5 |
2016 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 15 | 234 | 1267 | 5.4 | 13 | 50-356-1 | 298.3 | 4 |
2017 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 16 | 230 | 1124 | 4.9 | 12 | 58-416-0 | 284.0 | 6 |
2022 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 17 | 213 | 1121 | 5.3 | 2 | 59-395-5 | 254.6 | 7 |
2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 16 | 349 | 1538 | 4.4 | 13 | 33-398-0 | 308.8 | 4 |
2023 | James Conner, Ari. | 13 | 208 | 1040 | 5.0 | 7 | 27-165-2 | 201.5 | 19 |
2024 | Joe Mixon, Hou. | 14 | 245 | 1016 | 4.2 | 11 | 36-309-1 | 240.5 | 17 |
Of those 30 backs, all but seven averaged fewer yards per carry. Only five of those players finished with better numbers (using PPR scoring). If you want to look at stats per game, allowing for more of an apples-to-apples comparison, then six of the 30 averaged better numbers.
In the chart below, the backs who finished with better over stats are tagged with black dots.
THOSE SAME BACKS IN THEIR NEXT SEASONS | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Rec | PPR | Rk |
2003 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 13 | 138 | 541 | 3.9 | 2 | 11-71-0 | 84.2 | 46 |
2004 | • Tiki Barber, NYG | 16 | 322 | 1518 | 4.7 | 13 | 52-578-2 | 351.6 | 1 |
2005 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 11 | 194 | 787 | 4.1 | 3 | 13-83-0 | 118.0 | 36 |
2006 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 10 | 252 | 896 | 3.6 | 7 | 12-48-0 | 148.4 | 33 |
2007 | Edgerrin James, Ari. | 16 | 324 | 1222 | 3.8 | 7 | 24-204-0 | 208.6 | 13 |
2007 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 16 | 310 | 1119 | 3.6 | 1 | 28-217-1 | 173.6 | 22 |
2007 | Travis Henry, Den. | 12 | 167 | 691 | 4.1 | 4 | 7-65-0 | 106.6 | 47 |
2007 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 3 | 24 | 92 | 3.8 | 0 | 4-15-0 | 14.7 | 115 |
2008 | • LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 292 | 1110 | 3.8 | 11 | 52-426-1 | 277.6 | 6 |
2008 | Jamal Lewis, Cle. | 16 | 279 | 1002 | 3.6 | 4 | 23-178-0 | 165.0 | 30 |
2008 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 14 | 233 | 936 | 4.0 | 9 | 54-402-5 | 271.8 | 8 |
2009 | Derrick Ward, T.B. | 14 | 114 | 409 | 3.6 | 1 | 20-150-2 | 93.9 | 49 |
2010 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 16 | 222 | 927 | 4.2 | 5 | 31-215-2 | 187.2 | 22 |
2011 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 15 | 273 | 1067 | 3.9 | 6 | 15-82-0 | 165.9 | 26 |
2011 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 16 | 301 | 1340 | 4.5 | 11 | 17-168-0 | 233.8 | 8 |
2012 | • Frank Gore, S.F. | 16 | 258 | 1214 | 4.7 | 8 | 28-234-1 | 232.8 | 10 |
2012 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 16 | 258 | 1045 | 4.1 | 4 | 38-321-0 | 200.6 | 17 |
2014 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 16 | 266 | 1038 | 3.9 | 6 | 102-808-4 | 350.6 | 3 |
2014 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 11 | 76 | 297 | 3.9 | 2 | 40-253-0 | 107.0 | 42 |
2014 | Chris Johnson, NYJ | 16 | 155 | 663 | 4.3 | 1 | 24-151-1 | 117.4 | 39 |
2014 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1 | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 0 | 2-18-0 | 11.3 | 127 |
2015 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 5 | 71 | 364 | 5.1 | 4 | 21-177-1 | 105.1 | 51 |
2015 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 4 | 63 | 163 | 2.6 | 1 | 22-227-2 | 79.0 | 65 |
2015 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 7 | 111 | 417 | 3.8 | 3 | 13-80-0 | 82.7 | 61 |
2016 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 3 | 24 | 87 | 3.6 | 0 | 3-17-0 | 13.4 | 116 |
2017 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 16 | 287 | 1138 | 4.0 | 6 | 59-448-2 | 265.6 | 7 |
2017 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 15 | 184 | 659 | 3.6 | 6 | 39-266-1 | 173.5 | 21 |
2018 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 12 | 138 | 645 | 4.7 | 6 | 21-170-1 | 144.5 | 32 |
2023 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 17 | 280 | 1167 | 4.2 | 12 | 28-214-0 | 246.8 | 9 |
2023 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 11 | 142 | 656 | 4.6 | 2 | 30-233-1 | 136.9 | 38 |
2024 | • James Conner, Ari. | 16 | 236 | 1094 | 4.6 | 8 | 47-414-1 | 255.8 | 11 |
2025 | Joe Mixon, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Of the 30 backs in this little study, they declined by an average of 519 yards (both rushing and receiving) and they averaged 4 fewer touchdowns while playing in an average of 2.9 fewer games. It’s just tough to keep it going at the running back position.
Anybody who’s played much fantasy football knows how common it is for running backs selected in the second and third rounds to turn into afterthoughts in a hurry.
—Ian Allan