It's a rare year where a running back will be selected in the top 12 picks -- at least. Ashton Jeanty is being popularly mocked to the Raiders with the 6th pick, and even if that's just a smoke screen, he won't make it out of the top 10.
The Boise State back comes off one of the most incredible college seasons ever, rushing for 2,601 yards and 7.0 yards per attempt, with 30 total touchdowns. Barry Sanders' college rushing record nearly fell (though Jeanty would have done it in more games).
The salient question in fantasy is how early should he be selected in redraft leagues. Some people are drafting already, without knowing where players end up. Select him too early and maybe he winds up on team which already has a good starter in place, preventing him from putting up monster numbers right away. That's not the Raiders, but it's something which could happen.
I looked at different ways to draw comparisons, looking at college backs who rushed for a ton of yards or averaged over 6 yards per attempt. Ultimately, I went with guys drafted as early as Jeanty will be in the NFL Draft. How have those guys fared as rookies?
Since 2000, there have been 22 running backs selected in the top 12 picks. (Seventeen selected in the top 10, but I wanted to get Jahmyr Gibbs into the table.) Of those 22 players, exactly half (11) have put up top-10 numbers in PPR leagues as rookies; worthy of being selected in the first round or perhaps early second round in typical fantasy leagues. Five more at least finished in the top 25, worthy of being drafted in the first 2-3 rounds (Jeanty will be selected by the end of the second round in every draft no matter where he's taken on draft day).
Just six of the 22 (about a quarter) disappointed in their first seasons, and most of those guys went on to have a good season (or more) at some point. C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Thomas Jones and Darren McFadden each had at least one top-10 season. Cedric Benson had a couple in the top 20. Only Ron Dayne never had a notable season (and that was a pick that was criticized at the time; no one ever compared him to Jeanty.)
Not a given that Jeany will go on to have a great career (not all the backs on this list did). But a pretty strong hit rate for the ones selected that early.
Table shows rookie year numbers, sorted by ranking in PPR leagues that first season.
| RBS SELECTED IN THE TOP 12, 2000-PRESENT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2018 | 2 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307 | 91 | 721 | 15 | 2 |
| 2016 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631 | 32 | 363 | 16 | 2 |
| 2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1341 | 19 | 268 | 13 | 5 |
| 2001 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1236 | 59 | 367 | 10 | 6 |
| 2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 950 | 51 | 367 | 12 | 8 |
| 2023 | 8 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 976 | 58 | 487 | 8 | 8 |
| 2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 88 | 742 | 9 | 9 |
| 2017 | 8 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 80 | 651 | 7 | 9 |
| 2015 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | 21 | 188 | 10 | 9 |
| 2017 | 4 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1040 | 36 | 302 | 10 | 10 |
| 2023 | 12 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 945 | 52 | 316 | 11 | 10 |
| 2007 | 12 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1115 | 18 | 184 | 7 | 16 |
| 2000 | 5 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1364 | 27 | 296 | 6 | 18 |
| 2009 | 12 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 947 | 28 | 213 | 9 | 18 |
| 2005 | 5 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1178 | 20 | 81 | 6 | 21 |
| 2005 | 2 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 907 | 32 | 232 | 5 | 23 |
| 2010 | 12 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 678 | 22 | 145 | 7 | 31 |
| 2000 | 11 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 770 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 35 |
| 2000 | 7 | Thomas Jones, Ari. | 373 | 32 | 208 | 2 | 40 |
| 2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 499 | 29 | 285 | 4 | 42 |
| 2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 283 | 24 | 157 | 2 | 55 |
| 2005 | 4 | Cedric Benson, Chi. | 272 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 92 |
--Andy Richardson