The top of the NFL Draft seems to have taken shape. The Titans have fallen in love with Cam Ward. The Browns will apparently select Travis Hunter. And the Giants, reportedly, are honed in on Abdul Carter.
The Penn State edge rusher was for a while considered the likely or possible No. 1 overall pick. He had 12 sacks last year (and a ridiculous 24 tackles for loss) from a program that's churned out some successful NFL pass rushers in the past (Micah Parsons the most recent example). At 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, he's a big guy -- as the picture above, with him dwarfing a referee, makes clear. But with the Titans desperately needing the more important franchise quarterback, they're going to take Ward.
Maybe Cleveland opts for Carter, but they've been frequently connected to Hunter, who can help them both at wide receiver and in the secondary. Maybe they take the desperately needed potential franchise passer via a trade up from the second round. Leaving Carter for New York.
The Giants last year had 45 sacks, ranking 8th in the league. They have Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence and their top-5 pick in 2022, Kayvon Thibodeaux. Are they really going to go to that well again?
Well, they are reportedly shopping Thibodeaux, rather than picking up his fifth-year option. There should be a market, with him -- while not the impact guy they were hoping for -- averaging 7 sacks his first three seasons, even while missing 8 games; talented guy. Draft Carter, trade Thibodeaux for a good pick, and the pass rush should be even better.
The weird thing is that New York's pass rush wasn't nearly as good as the final numbers indicated for most of last season. No team experienced even close to as much of a decline from the first half of the season to second as the Giants.
It's an 18-week season, so we split it into a pair of 9-week stretches. Some teams play eight games in the first half, some nine. The Giants were one of the nine-game first half teams, which affects things slightly. But either way, they had a shocking dropoff in the final eight games of the season.
New York had 35 sacks the first nine weeks, 4 more than any other team. They then proceeded to have just 10 in the final nine weeks/eight games. That was 2 fewer than any other team. It barely makes sense.
| TEAM SACKS, 1ST VS. 2ND | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 1st | 2nd | +/- |
| Dallas | 18 | 34 | +16 |
| Miami | 10 | 25 | +15 |
| Atlanta | 9 | 22 | +13 |
| Carolina | 10 | 22 | +12 |
| Kansas City | 17 | 22 | +5 |
| Las Vegas | 17 | 21 | +4 |
| Seattle | 21 | 24 | +3 |
| Cincinnati | 17 | 19 | +2 |
| Pittsburgh | 19 | 21 | +2 |
| New Orleans | 19 | 20 | +1 |
| Denver | 31 | 32 | +1 |
| Green Bay | 22 | 23 | +1 |
| Arizona | 21 | 20 | -1 |
| Baltimore | 28 | 26 | -2 |
| LA Chargers | 24 | 22 | -2 |
| Detroit | 20 | 17 | -3 |
| Buffalo | 21 | 18 | -3 |
| Philadelphia | 22 | 19 | -3 |
| San Francisco | 20 | 17 | -3 |
| Tampa Bay | 25 | 21 | -4 |
| New England | 16 | 12 | -4 |
| Indianapolis | 20 | 16 | -4 |
| LA Rams | 21 | 17 | -4 |
| Tennessee | 18 | 14 | -4 |
| Washington | 24 | 19 | -5 |
| Minnesota | 27 | 22 | -5 |
| Jacksonville | 20 | 14 | -6 |
| Chicago | 23 | 17 | -6 |
| Houston | 29 | 20 | -9 |
| Cleveland | 27 | 14 | -13 |
| NY Jets | 31 | 12 | -19 |
| NY Giants | 35 | 10 | -25 |
Lawrence missed the final five games (but this pass rush had tailed off even before then). Burns appeared in all 17 games, while Thibodeaux missed three games in the first half and two in the second. Bottom line, it was a pass rush that seemed to overachieve early, while dramatically underachieving (along with the entire team) late.
I assume the team will in fact be adding Carter, although the draft could still throw us a curve. If they do, and accordingly trade Thibodeaux somewhere, it's a pass rush that will get this defense on the fantasy radar in typical leagues. The offense should be better with one of their veteran quarterback options, that should help as well.
I don't know if they're definitely in the mix as a solid fantasy option. New York somehow ranked in the bottom-5 in takeaways last year, surprising when you consider all the pressure they were getting (the first half of the season, anyway). For their sake, hopefully there will be other defensive additions. But I'll be interested in the pass rush potential, assuming the Carter pick occurs.
--Andy Richardson