So Ashton Jeanty went to the Raiders, as many expected. The Broncos passed on Omarion Hampton, but have popularly been connected to another top college back, Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson. Maybe that will happen in Round 2 or 3.
Whether it's to Denver or not, Henderson almost certainly will be selected tonight. He was awfully impressive for the National Champs, rushing for 1,016 yards and 10 touchdowns on just 144 attempts; that's 7.1 yards per carry. Rare that college backs put up that kind of efficiency. That was a yard and a half better than teammate Quinshon Judkins (5.5, going for 1,060 yards on 194 attempts), who might also be selected tonight.
But does that high yards per carry translate into NFL success? It doesn't seem like a telling number, based on recent history.
Looking at the last decade of running backs selected in the first three rounds, I found 13 who averaged at least 7.0 yards per attempt in their final year of college. That includes two this year (assuming Henderson goes tonight), with the Ohio State back and newest Raider Jeanty.
Of the other 11, I see one star, one pretty good running back, and a lot other modest players or outright disappointments. Jury is still out on a couple of them.
Table shows final year of college rushing numbers for those backs who averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, with the final two columns showing their rookie year numbers and fantasy ranking in PPR leagues, sorted by rank.
| RBS AVERAGING 7.0 YPC IN FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2015-PRESENT | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Pk | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Run-Rec-TD | Rk |
| 2025 | 1 | 6 | Ashton Jeanty, L.V. | 374 | 2601 | 7.0 | 30 | ? | ? |
| 2025 | ? | ? | TreVeyon Henderson, ? | 144 | 1016 | 7.1 | 11 | ? | ? |
| 2015 | 1 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 123 | 911 | 7.4 | 9 | 1106-188-10 | 9 |
| 2020 | 3 | 66 | Antonio Gibson, Wash. | 33 | 369 | 11.2 | 13 | 795-247-11 | 14 |
| 2021 | 2 | 35 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 157 | 1140 | 7.3 | 22 | 903-316-7 | 17 |
| 2018 | 1 | 31 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 156 | 1227 | 7.9 | 17 | 931-50-6 | 34 |
| 2015 | 1 | 15 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 343 | 2587 | 7.5 | 32 | 641-192-0 | 45 |
| 2023 | 2 | 52 | Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 195 | 1359 | 7.0 | 14 | 462-209-1 | 45 |
| 2018 | 1 | 27 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 289 | 2248 | 7.8 | 25 | 419-75-2 | 68 |
| 2015 | 3 | 73 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 270 | 2036 | 7.5 | 15 | 392-14-1 | 79 |
| 2019 | 3 | 70 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 214 | 1909 | 8.9 | 25 | 147-37-0 | 98 |
| 2021 | 3 | 88 | Trey Sermon, S.F. | 116 | 870 | 7.5 | 4 | 167-26-1 | 99 |
| 2024 | 3 | 88 | MarShawn Lloyd, G.B. | 116 | 820 | 7.1 | 9 | 15-3-0 | 127 |
Probably no coincidence that the two backs who turned out best on this list, Gurley and Gordon, were also drafted the earliest (top 15); they brought some other good attributes to the table. Jeanty is another of those.
Henderson is definitely fast, running a 4.43 at the combine. He looks very good to me; explosive through small holes, sharp cuts. Maybe a little upright. Productive receiver (27 for 284 last year), which will be important if the Broncos do select him, and did a nice job of adjusting to off-target throws.
Based on the recent history, seems the earlier he goes tonight, the better his odds of making a quick impact and being a successful pro (granted, that can be said about anyone). But I'm rooting for Denver, which would put the three top college backs in AFC West together.
--Andy Richardson