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Cardinals looking for second-year breakout

Gannon says Harrison headed for a big year

As Jonathan Gannon sees it, Marvin Harrison is headed for a big year. Harrison, Gannon says, is working hard – seemingly determined to become a top-tier receiver.

“When the staff’s in place, the jump from Year 1 to Year 2, I think that’s where guys make a huge jump,” Gannon said on a recent radio show. “And this guy played unbelievable ball for us. But if you talk to him, he’d be the first to tell you, I need to get better at these couple of things. And man, he has went to work on them. He’s went to work on them … He looks awesome out there right now.”

All of which was great. But if Harrison has an unusual work ethic and drive, where was it last year? Why wasn’t he correcting these issues during the 2024 season?

Harrison had a serviceable rookie season – 62 catches for 885 yards and 8 TDs – but it fell short of what you would expect for a wide receiver selected with the No. 4 pick of the draft.

And while it’s easy to toss around the idea that a receiver will be a lot better in his second year, simply because he’s been around, with a better feel for the offense and the pro game, it’s not strongly supported by the numbers.

Consider the charts below. The first shows the 26 wide receivers who’ve ranked between 25th and 40th statistically in their first season in the last 15 years – guys who have had some success (using PPR scoring) but who haven’t quite broken into stardom. I left out receivers who ranked in the top 24 because I wanted to stay away from the dynamic of it simply being hard to match big numbers.

The second chart shows how those receivers fared in their second season. Thirteen of them got better, but 11 of them got worse. Only three (in bold) moved up into the top 10 at their position statistically. Another five moved up into the top 20, so you could say a third (8 of 24) moved up into the top 20, having “breakout” seasons of sorts.

Almost as many receivers finished with lesser number than in their rookie season. (I’ve got those guys tagged with dots.) But in fairness, note that four receivers missed at least half of the season because of injuries and a suspension. If we set those four aside, there are almost twice as many wide receivers getting better rather than worse. That can be considered a good sign for those hoping for a Harrison breakout.

I’m not opposed to picking Harrison, but I will guess that he’ll be a little lower on my board than most.

ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH 'SOLID' SEASONS
YearPlayerGNoRecRunTDPPRRk
2024Marvin Harrison, Ari.176288508198.530
2024Xavier Worthy, K.C.17596381049187.233
2023Jayden Reed, G.B.166479311910217.225
2023Rashee Rice, K.C.1679938-37214.527
2023Tank Dell, Hou.1147709517165.039
2023Zay Flowers, Balt.1677858566206.431
2022Drake London, Atl.177286604184.628
2022George Pickens, Pitt.1752801245166.540
2021DeVonta Smith, Phil.176491605187.630
2020Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.1260748777184.535
2020Tee Higgins, Cin.1667908286196.628
2019Darius Slayton, NYG144874008170.037
2019Deebo Samuel, S.F.15578021596191.131
2019Diontae Johnson, Pitt.1659680416167.139
2019DK Metcalf, Sea.1658900117193.129
2019Terry McLaurin, Was.145891907191.930
2018DJ Moore, Car.16557881722163.036
2017Cooper Kupp, LAR156286905178.925
2016Sterling Shepard, NYG1665683318184.436
2014Jarvis Landry, Mia.1684758-45189.430
2014Jordan Matthews, Phil.166787208202.225
2014Sammy Watkins, Buff.166598286200.027
2013Cordarrelle Patterson, Min.16454691589161.738
2012Justin Blackmon, Jac.1664865235184.829
2012T.Y. Hilton, Ind.1550861298187.028
2011Torrey Smith, Balt.1650841397180.030
SAME RECEIVERS, SECOND SEASONS
YearPlayerGNoRecRunTDPPRRk
2024Zay Flowers, Balt.17741059564209.525
2024• Jayden Reed, G.B.17558571637199.029
2024• Tank Dell, Hou.1451667433140.051
2024• Rashee Rice, K.C.4242881264.9101
2023George Pickens, Pitt.17631140185208.830
2023• Drake London, Atl.166990502174.636
2022DeVonta Smith, Phil.1795119607256.69
2021Tee Higgins, Cin.1474109106221.123
2021• Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.1756826175172.335
2020DK Metcalf, Sea.16831303010273.37
2020Terry McLaurin, Was.15871118304225.820
2020Diontae Johnson, Pitt.1588923157223.821
2020• Darius Slayton, NYG1650751-13143.054
2020• Deebo Samuel, S.F.73339126180.796
2019DJ Moore, Car.15871175404232.516
2018• Cooper Kupp, LAR840566256135.151
2017• Sterling Shepard, NYG115973142144.542
2015Jarvis Landry, Mia.1611011571136275.59
2015Jordan Matthews, Phil.168599708232.716
2015Sammy Watkins, Buff.1360104719218.820
2014• Cordarrelle Patterson, Min.1633384117295.183
2013T.Y. Hilton, Ind.1682108365220.919
2013• Justin Blackmon, Jac.429415-1176.493
2012Torrey Smith, Balt.164985598183.431

—Ian Allan

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