Well, I've found the position and player where I seem to have the most difference from a majority of fantasy experts. It's not the most exciting position, sorry about that. It appears to be Lions kicker Jake Bates.
This is based on looking at our Experts Poll submissions, where a field of experts ranks 20 players or teams at each of the key fantasy positions. Everyone puts Bates in their top 10, and the vast majority put him in their top 5. I appear to be on an island in that I barely snuck him into my top 20.
We tend to favor kickers from teams that are going to win more games; that's where the best kickers tend to come from. But some coaches are more apt to pass up field goals to push for touchdowns than others, and one of those, unsurprisingly, is Dan Campbell.
Over the last two years, the Lions have attempted a total of 50 field goals. That's the fewest of any team in the league, a half-dozen fewer than anyone else. That's despite winning more games (27) than any other team those two years, and also scoring more points (1,025) than anyone. Hard to do.
| FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS, 2023-2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 23 | 24 | Total |
| Dallas | 38 | 47 | 85 |
| Houston | 38 | 42 | 80 |
| Atlanta | 37 | 41 | 78 |
| Indianapolis | 41 | 37 | 78 |
| LA Rams | 43 | 34 | 77 |
| Pittsburgh | 31 | 44 | 75 |
| LA Chargers | 33 | 42 | 75 |
| Minnesota | 30 | 42 | 72 |
| Kansas City | 35 | 37 | 72 |
| Seattle | 42 | 30 | 72 |
| Arizona | 33 | 38 | 71 |
| Green Bay | 33 | 38 | 71 |
| Las Vegas | 30 | 40 | 70 |
| Miami | 28 | 41 | 69 |
| San Francisco | 25 | 43 | 68 |
| Philadelphia | 32 | 36 | 68 |
| Denver | 34 | 34 | 68 |
| New Orleans | 37 | 31 | 68 |
| Baltimore | 37 | 30 | 67 |
| NY Jets | 39 | 28 | 67 |
| Washington | 24 | 42 | 66 |
| Jacksonville | 37 | 29 | 66 |
| Cincinnati | 31 | 33 | 64 |
| Cleveland | 37 | 27 | 64 |
| Tampa Bay | 31 | 32 | 63 |
| Chicago | 38 | 25 | 63 |
| NY Giants | 31 | 28 | 59 |
| New England | 25 | 33 | 58 |
| Buffalo | 29 | 29 | 58 |
| Tennessee | 30 | 27 | 57 |
| Carolina | 30 | 26 | 56 |
| Detroit | 21 | 29 | 50 |
Things can change. The Lions themselves attempted 8 more field goals last year than the previous year, so a positive change. And maybe they'll continue in that direction in 2025. New offensive coordinator, so maybe the offense takes a step back, and is settling for more field goals, rather than finishing drives with touchdowns.
But I won't be drafting Bates anywhere. Checks some boxes we like for kickers, but I'll be looking for a more conservative-minded head coach.
--Andy Richardson