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Running against Father Time

The risk of drafting older running backs

Firming up my running back list, I see some older guys in the teens. Alvin Kamara and James Conner will be 30 on opening day. Joe Mixon and Christian McCaffrey will be 29. Maybe not a great idea to have that many older guys.

In the top 10 I’ve got Derrick Henry, who’s 31. The other notable 30-year-old, Aaron Jones, is outside my top 20.

With these older guys in front of me, I figured I should take a final look at some previous older guys, with that perhaps influencing by a few spots either way, how these guys settle onto the board. Specifically, let’s look at similar prospects from the past, then check to see how they turned out.

In the past 15 years, there have been 26 running backs who posted top-20 numbers (PPR scoring) when they were 28 years old. Of those guys, only four came back and posted better numbers. (Those backs are tagged with double black dots). Nine of these 26 (about a third) at least again finished with top 20 numbers (single dots.)

In the chart below, you’re seeing not the production as 28-year-olds (when they played well). You’re seeing what they did when they were 29 (after most of these guys were drafted pretty early). The rank showing how they played when they were 28 is the final column.

29-YEAR-OLDS WHO WERE TOP-20 RB
YearPlayerGRunRecTDPPRRkPrev
2014• Matt Forte, Chi.16103880810350.632
2017• LeSean McCoy, Buff.1611384488265.674
2023• Derrick Henry, Ten.17116721412246.894
2015Marshawn Lynch, Sea.741780382.7614
2012• Darren Sproles, N.O.132446678216.1135
2017DeMarco Murray, Ten.156592667173.5215
2015Arian Foster, Hou.4163227379.0655
2018Mark Ingram, N.O.126451707144.5326
2023Aaron Jones, G.B.116562333136.9387
2014Reggie Bush, Det.112972532107.0427
2015Jamaal Charles, K.C.53641775105.1517
2014Chris Johnson, NYJ166631512117.4399
2012• Steven Jackson, St.L.1610453214200.61710
2014Adrian Peterson, Min.17518011.312710
2024•• Alvin Kamara, N.O.149505438265.3912
2014Danny Woodhead, S.D.33834012.212512
2015Joique Bell, Det.133112864105.75013
2016Darren McFadden, Dall.38717013.411613
2011•• Michael Turner, Atl.16134016811233.8814
2011Cedric Benson, Cin.151067826165.92616
2012•• Frank Gore, S.F.16121423410232.81017
2017Bilal Powell, NYJ157721705147.23017
2025Joe Mixon, Hou.??????17
2022Melvin Gordon, Den.10318223291.14818
2024•• James Conner, Ari.1610944149255.81119
2014Maurice Jones-Drew, Oak.129671027.79719

The numbers for the 30-year-olds are even more bleak. In the last 15 years, 11 guys who were 29 finished with top-20 numbers (which is a surprisingly low number). Only three of those 11 came back and again posted top-20 numbers when they were 30. Only one guy of those 11 (Derrick Henry last year) came back and was even better.

These numbers suggest it’s probably not a great idea to have both Kamara and Conner in your top 20.

30-YEAR-OLDS WHO WERE TOP-20 RB
YearPlayerGRunRecTDPPRRkPrev
2015• Matt Forte, Chi.138983897216.783
2018LeSean McCoy, Buff.145142383127.2397
2015Justin Forsett, Balt.106411532122.4428
2012Michael Turner, Atl.1680012811177.8228
2025Alvin Kamara, N.O.??????9
2024•• Derrick Henry, Balt.17192119318338.449
2013• Frank Gore, S.F.1611281419196.91810
2025James Conner, Ari.??????11
2013Darren Sproles, N.O.152206044177.42313
2014Pierre Thomas, N.O.112223783123.03516
2013Steven Jackson, Atl.125431917148.43117

And with Henry and Aaron Jones both going to be 31 at the end of this season, let’s look at those numbers also. There have been 11 30-year-olds who’ve posted top-20 numbers in the last 15 years. But none of those guys came back and posted top-20 numbers again when they were 31.

The regular rules don’t seem to apply to a guy like Derrick Henry. He’s bigger and better than other guys, and seemingly not aging in the same way. But those are worrying numbers.

31-YEAR-OLDS WHO WERE TOP-20 RB
YearPlayerGRunRecTDPPRRkPrev
2016Adrian Peterson, Min.3728011.01222
2016Danny Woodhead, S.D.211635127.1973
2025Derrick Henry, Balt.??????4
2016Matt Forte, NYJ148132638185.6218
2017LeGarrette Blount, Phil.16766503109.6459
2020Mark Ingram, Balt.1129950252.97610
2022Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl.136951229156.73110
2025Aaron Jones, Min.??????12
2012Fred Jackson, Buff.104372174123.43414
2014Frank Gore, S.F.1611061115162.72118
2023Jerick McKinnon, K.C.1260192584.45320

—Ian Allan

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