Firming up my running back list, I see some older guys in the teens. Alvin Kamara and James Conner will be 30 on opening day. Joe Mixon and Christian McCaffrey will be 29. Maybe not a great idea to have that many older guys.
In the top 10 I’ve got Derrick Henry, who’s 31. The other notable 30-year-old, Aaron Jones, is outside my top 20.
With these older guys in front of me, I figured I should take a final look at some previous older guys, with that perhaps influencing by a few spots either way, how these guys settle onto the board. Specifically, let’s look at similar prospects from the past, then check to see how they turned out.
In the past 15 years, there have been 26 running backs who posted top-20 numbers (PPR scoring) when they were 28 years old. Of those guys, only four came back and posted better numbers. (Those backs are tagged with double black dots). Nine of these 26 (about a third) at least again finished with top 20 numbers (single dots.)
In the chart below, you’re seeing not the production as 28-year-olds (when they played well). You’re seeing what they did when they were 29 (after most of these guys were drafted pretty early). The rank showing how they played when they were 28 is the final column.
29-YEAR-OLDS WHO WERE TOP-20 RB | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Run | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk | Prev |
2014 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 16 | 1038 | 808 | 10 | 350.6 | 3 | 2 |
2017 | • LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 16 | 1138 | 448 | 8 | 265.6 | 7 | 4 |
2023 | • Derrick Henry, Ten. | 17 | 1167 | 214 | 12 | 246.8 | 9 | 4 |
2015 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 7 | 417 | 80 | 3 | 82.7 | 61 | 4 |
2012 | • Darren Sproles, N.O. | 13 | 244 | 667 | 8 | 216.1 | 13 | 5 |
2017 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 15 | 659 | 266 | 7 | 173.5 | 21 | 5 |
2015 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 4 | 163 | 227 | 3 | 79.0 | 65 | 5 |
2018 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 12 | 645 | 170 | 7 | 144.5 | 32 | 6 |
2023 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 11 | 656 | 233 | 3 | 136.9 | 38 | 7 |
2014 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 11 | 297 | 253 | 2 | 107.0 | 42 | 7 |
2015 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 5 | 364 | 177 | 5 | 105.1 | 51 | 7 |
2014 | Chris Johnson, NYJ | 16 | 663 | 151 | 2 | 117.4 | 39 | 9 |
2012 | • Steven Jackson, St.L. | 16 | 1045 | 321 | 4 | 200.6 | 17 | 10 |
2014 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1 | 75 | 18 | 0 | 11.3 | 127 | 10 |
2024 | •• Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 14 | 950 | 543 | 8 | 265.3 | 9 | 12 |
2014 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 3 | 38 | 34 | 0 | 12.2 | 125 | 12 |
2015 | Joique Bell, Det. | 13 | 311 | 286 | 4 | 105.7 | 50 | 13 |
2016 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 3 | 87 | 17 | 0 | 13.4 | 116 | 13 |
2011 | •• Michael Turner, Atl. | 16 | 1340 | 168 | 11 | 233.8 | 8 | 14 |
2011 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 15 | 1067 | 82 | 6 | 165.9 | 26 | 16 |
2012 | •• Frank Gore, S.F. | 16 | 1214 | 234 | 10 | 232.8 | 10 | 17 |
2017 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 15 | 772 | 170 | 5 | 147.2 | 30 | 17 |
2025 | Joe Mixon, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 17 |
2022 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 10 | 318 | 223 | 2 | 91.1 | 48 | 18 |
2024 | •• James Conner, Ari. | 16 | 1094 | 414 | 9 | 255.8 | 11 | 19 |
2014 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Oak. | 12 | 96 | 71 | 0 | 27.7 | 97 | 19 |
The numbers for the 30-year-olds are even more bleak. In the last 15 years, 11 guys who were 29 finished with top-20 numbers (which is a surprisingly low number). Only three of those 11 came back and again posted top-20 numbers when they were 30. Only one guy of those 11 (Derrick Henry last year) came back and was even better.
These numbers suggest it’s probably not a great idea to have both Kamara and Conner in your top 20.
30-YEAR-OLDS WHO WERE TOP-20 RB | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Run | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk | Prev |
2015 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 13 | 898 | 389 | 7 | 216.7 | 8 | 3 |
2018 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 14 | 514 | 238 | 3 | 127.2 | 39 | 7 |
2015 | Justin Forsett, Balt. | 10 | 641 | 153 | 2 | 122.4 | 42 | 8 |
2012 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 16 | 800 | 128 | 11 | 177.8 | 22 | 8 |
2025 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 9 |
2024 | •• Derrick Henry, Balt. | 17 | 1921 | 193 | 18 | 338.4 | 4 | 9 |
2013 | • Frank Gore, S.F. | 16 | 1128 | 141 | 9 | 196.9 | 18 | 10 |
2025 | James Conner, Ari. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 11 |
2013 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 15 | 220 | 604 | 4 | 177.4 | 23 | 13 |
2014 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 11 | 222 | 378 | 3 | 123.0 | 35 | 16 |
2013 | Steven Jackson, Atl. | 12 | 543 | 191 | 7 | 148.4 | 31 | 17 |
And with Henry and Aaron Jones both going to be 31 at the end of this season, let’s look at those numbers also. There have been 11 30-year-olds who’ve posted top-20 numbers in the last 15 years. But none of those guys came back and posted top-20 numbers again when they were 31.
The regular rules don’t seem to apply to a guy like Derrick Henry. He’s bigger and better than other guys, and seemingly not aging in the same way. But those are worrying numbers.
31-YEAR-OLDS WHO WERE TOP-20 RB | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Run | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk | Prev |
2016 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 3 | 72 | 8 | 0 | 11.0 | 122 | 2 |
2016 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 2 | 116 | 35 | 1 | 27.1 | 97 | 3 |
2025 | Derrick Henry, Balt. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 4 |
2016 | Matt Forte, NYJ | 14 | 813 | 263 | 8 | 185.6 | 21 | 8 |
2017 | LeGarrette Blount, Phil. | 16 | 766 | 50 | 3 | 109.6 | 45 | 9 |
2020 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 11 | 299 | 50 | 2 | 52.9 | 76 | 10 |
2022 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl. | 13 | 695 | 122 | 9 | 156.7 | 31 | 10 |
2025 | Aaron Jones, Min. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 12 |
2012 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 10 | 437 | 217 | 4 | 123.4 | 34 | 14 |
2014 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 16 | 1106 | 111 | 5 | 162.7 | 21 | 18 |
2023 | Jerick McKinnon, K.C. | 12 | 60 | 192 | 5 | 84.4 | 53 | 20 |
—Ian Allan