Sometimes the minor parts of trades or afterthought picks become more valuable than expected. That happened last year for the Panthers, and some of us fantasy coaches, with Chuba Hubbard.
Carolina drafted him in the fourth round back in 2021, at a time when they already had Christian McCaffrey. At the time, he was just a backup to the game's best running back. But McCaffrey got hurt and ultimately traded a year later. And the Panthers, even though they went on to select Jonathon Brooks in the second round in 2024, have discovered that Hubbard is better than anyone expected.
I also drafted Brooks in dynasty last season. Everyone knew he was coming off a knee injury in his final year of college and would be brought along slowly, but it made sense that ultimately he'd be Carolina's lead back. Instead, Brooks got hurt again shortly after he joined the active roster. And Hubbard just got better as the year went on.
One of the files we keep each season compares running back performance the second half of the season versus the first. On a per-game basis, Hubbard was one of the most improved backs last year, behind only a handful of running backs -- a breakout rookie, three big stars, and one of the league's other underrated veterans.
Table shows all backs who played at least 5 games in each half of the season and averaged double-digit rushing attempts per game. Hubbard, in PPR leagues, was 17 percent better the second half of the year.
| RUNNING BACKS 2ND HALF PERFORMANCE, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Imp |
| Bucky Irving, T.B. | 87.9 | 3.0 | 27.3 | .63 | 18.3 | 64% |
| Josh Jacobs, G.B. | 70.9 | 2.1 | 26.8 | 1.50 | 20.9 | 42% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 84.0 | 3.6 | 39.1 | 1.33 | 23.9 | 27% |
| Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 103.0 | 2.9 | 16.0 | 1.29 | 22.5 | 26% |
| James Conner, Ari. | 67.1 | 3.9 | 32.4 | .63 | 17.6 | 22% |
| Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 88.3 | 2.8 | 10.5 | .89 | 18.1 | 17% |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 116.1 | 1.0 | 4.5 | .88 | 18.3 | 10% |
| David Montgomery, Det. | 47.8 | 3.2 | 30.0 | .83 | 16.0 | 3% |
| James Cook, Buff. | 64.1 | 1.6 | 11.0 | 1.25 | 16.6 | 0% |
| Saquon Barkley, Phil. | 135.0 | 1.6 | 16.5 | .92 | 22.3 | -1% |
| Aaron Jones, Min. | 63.7 | 2.8 | 18.1 | 1.33 | 19.0 | -6% |
| Breece Hall, NYJ | 53.4 | 3.1 | 22.3 | .67 | 14.7 | -7% |
| Tank Bigsby, Jac. | 35.9 | .6 | 2.6 | .43 | 7.0 | -8% |
| Rico Dowdle, Dall. | 84.2 | 2.0 | 9.6 | .22 | 12.7 | -8% |
| Travis Etienne, Jac. | 38.0 | 2.6 | 19.6 | .00 | 8.4 | -10% |
| Najee Harris, Pitt. | 50.1 | 2.1 | 14.6 | .44 | 11.2 | -13% |
| Tyrone Tracy, NYG | 49.6 | 2.6 | 21.0 | .50 | 12.7 | -14% |
| Kyren Williams, LAR | 87.1 | 1.8 | 8.3 | .75 | 15.8 | -17% |
| J.K. Dobbins, LAC | 57.0 | 2.2 | 9.2 | .60 | 12.4 | -23% |
| Derrick Henry, Balt. | 108.6 | 1.3 | 12.5 | .63 | 17.1 | -24% |
| Chase Brown, Cin. | 73.0 | 4.7 | 37.4 | .71 | 20.0 | -25% |
| Tony Pollard, Ten. | 57.1 | 2.1 | 12.9 | .29 | 10.9 | -26% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 58.0 | 4.4 | 35.2 | .20 | 14.9 | -30% |
| Joe Mixon, Hou. | 50.9 | 2.8 | 24.3 | .63 | 14.0 | -35% |
| Brian Robinson, Was. | 48.3 | 1.6 | 11.4 | .29 | 9.3 | -35% |
| D'Andre Swift, Chi. | 50.4 | 1.9 | 18.0 | .22 | 10.1 | -35% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 51.9 | 1.4 | 9.9 | .19 | 8.7 | -40% |
I made a trade in that dynasty league last year, and acquired Hubbard in it. I wasn't even looking to add him; it was before Brooks got hurt again, and Hubbard was just a throw-in by the other team. Figuring that by now, Hubbard would just be a random No. 2.
Instead, he's the one with the new contract, and Carolina's starter and No. 1 back this year. The team added Rico Dowdle, but he's not making much money: one year, $2.75 million, about a third of Hubbard's annual salary. Fourth-rounder Trevor Etienne is not a real threat to be a factor. Brooks? I don't know if he'll even play this season.
From the above table, it's also interesting to see the names at the bottom. Brian Robinson, D'Andre Swift and Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots drafted TreVeyon Henderson in the second round, so Stevenson is definitely on thin ice. The Commanders and Bears didn't draft anyone early, but seventh-rounders Jacory Croskey-Merritt out of Arizona and Kyle Monangai out of Rutgers have my attention. Both were maybe pushed down due to a deep draft, but I'll be watching both in camp. As with Hubbard, you never know what a productive college back will wind up doing if he gets his chance.
--Andy Richardson