When the Steelers traded for DK Metcalf a while back, I expressed reservations about the landing spot. The team had George Pickens, and Arthur Smith offenses do not have a history of producing multiple good wide receivers.
With Pickens traded to Dallas recently, I thought it'd be worth examining what can be expected from Metcalf now. He's definitely the No. 1, and it's a long trip down to whoever the No. 2 might wind up being. As we speak, Robert Woods or Calvin Austin.
Will Metcalf be great? Debatable.
Probably, his quarterback will be Aaron Rodgers. We don't know that, but it's the assumption. If Rodgers retires, it will be either Mason Rudolph or some other veteran, perhaps. Whoever it is, the history suggests Metcalf will be decent as the No. 1, but maybe not someone to rush to the podium for.
Table shows the No. 1 wideouts in offenses overseen by Metcalf's new offensive coordinator (three in Atlanta, two in Tennessee, and last year's in Pittsburgh). Some talented guys, but just one top 20 player in PPR leagues. That was A.J. Brown back in 2020, catching 12 touchdowns.
| ARTHUR SMITH NO. 1 WRS, 2019-PRESENT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Tgt | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2024 | George Pickens, Pitt. | 14 | 103 | 59 | 900 | 3 | 42 |
| 2023 | Drake London, Atl. | 16 | 110 | 69 | 905 | 2 | 36 |
| 2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 17 | 117 | 72 | 866 | 4 | 28 |
| 2021 | Russell Gage, Atl. | 14 | 94 | 66 | 770 | 4 | 37 |
| 2020 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 14 | 106 | 70 | 1075 | 12 | 11 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 16 | 84 | 52 | 1051 | 9 | 22 |
Brown is the only WR with even 5 TDs in those stretch of seasons, a function (I think) of all the touchdowns spread around to different tight ends over those years. His Atlanta offenses all had multiple wideouts catching 3-4 TDs, but no more than that, and so did Pittsburgh last year. Those familiar with Smith's oeuvre are aware of his fondness for involving multiple tight ends, particularly around the goal line. That isn't likely to change in 2025, with Pittsburgh having already added another tight end to the mix in Donald Parham.
Probably a coincidence that Drake London (9 TDs) just had his best season in Atlanta after two with 2-4 TDs with Smith running things.
Metcalf has seasons with 10-12 touchdowns, back when Russell Wilson was his quarterback, but the last three years he's caught 6, 8 and 5. So a move down 4-5 in an Arthur Smith offense would not be surprising.
Anyway, I'm not going to be drafting Metcalf, I don't think.
--Andy Richardson