The track record for rookie quarterbacks is pretty sketchy, but there at hits from time to time. In each of the last two seasons, in fact, there was a rookie who was a key pick at the position – C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels.
With both of those quarterbacks, they averaged top-10 per-game numbers in their first season. (I prefer to look at per-start numbers for quarterbacks; they give a better indication of how a player was performing, rather than how many games he played.)
But it would be a tall ask, I think, to select Cam Ward with the hope he might finish among the top dozen quarterbacks statistically. That’s tough to do, and Ward doesn’t have the rushing loophole to fall back on, sneaking his stats up in that way. He can run around some, but that’s not his game – he tends to scramble to buy time, rather than looking to bolt for yards.
I do like the plan in Tennessee. They’ve been making an effort to work their offensive line into reasonable shape. And they’ve got a coach (Brian Callahan) who was involved in the successful launch of another quarterback picked No. 1 overall – Joe Burrow.
But it’s just tough to be successful early, even for the highly coveted prospects.
In the last 15 years, 23 other quarterbacks have been selected with top-5 picks. Four have averaged top-10 per-game numbers in their first seasons – Daniels, Stroud, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. (Newton and Daniels were powered along more by running than passing.) I’ve got those four top-10 QBs tagged with double dots.
Another six quarterbacks have at least averaged top-20 numbers, meaning they were deserving of being rostered in a typical fantasy league. I’ve got one dot on those guys.
But that leaves a majority (13 of 23) finishing outside the top 20, which is where I think we’ll see Ward this year. And that’s OK. Would be a decent enough rookie season for him to start most of it, win a few games, throw a few touchdowns, and generally not fall flat on his face. That would set him up to head into the 2026 season with a little confidence and better pieces around him.
| QUARTERBACKS SELECTED WITH TOP 5 PICKS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts/G | Rk |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 220 | 1.13 | 4 | .06 | 16.2 | 24 |
| 2011 | •• Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253 | 1.31 | 44 | .88 | 27.8 | 4 |
| 2012 | •• Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273 | 1.44 | 16 | .31 | 22.9 | 10 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 207 | .69 | 30 | .00 | 16.2 | 27 |
| 2015 | • Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 235 | 1.58 | 21 | .25 | 22.2 | 16 |
| 2015 | • Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 253 | 1.38 | 13 | .38 | 21.8 | 17 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 236 | 1.00 | 9 | .13 | 17.8 | 27 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, L.A. | 7 | 156 | .71 | 2 | .14 | 11.7 | -- |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 183 | .58 | 21 | .17 | 14.7 | 29 |
| 2018 | • Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 13 | 271 | 2.08 | 10 | .00 | 23.0 | 11 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 220 | 1.31 | 11 | .08 | 17.8 | 27 |
| 2019 | • Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 233 | 1.25 | 34 | .25 | 21.9 | 13 |
| 2020 | • Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 269 | 1.30 | 14 | .30 | 21.9 | 15 |
| 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 201 | 1.22 | 12 | .33 | 18.4 | 29 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 214 | .71 | 20 | .12 | 16.2 | 29 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 180 | .69 | 14 | .31 | 15.2 | 31 |
| 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 2 | 221 | 1.00 | 60 | .00 | 21.0 | -- |
| 2023 | •• C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 15 | 274 | 1.53 | 11 | .20 | 22.3 | 7 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 180 | .69 | 16 | .00 | 13.6 | 28 |
| 2023 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 4 | 144 | .75 | 34 | 1.00 | 20.6 | -- |
| 2024 | •• Jayden Daniels, Was. | 17 | 210 | 1.47 | 52 | .35 | 24.1 | 6 |
| 2024 | • Drake Maye, N.E. | 12 | 188 | 1.25 | 34 | .17 | 19.1 | 20 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 17 | 208 | 1.18 | 29 | .00 | 18.4 | 22 |
| 2025 | Cam Ward, Ten. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan