I’ve been mulling over Tony Pollard some. On the one hand, he’ll be running behind an offensive line that looks a little better. At the same time, Brian Callahan was saying the other week that he’d like to move to more of a one-two punch backfield, with Tyjae Spears seeing more playing time.
Pollard was their main guy last year, and he was fine, averaging 67 rushing and 15 receiving yards, albeit with only 5 TDs in 16 games. He’s run for over 1,000 yards three years in a row. He’s better than Spears.
But as Pollard has gotten more carries, he hasn’t been as explosive. At the beginning of his career, Pollard operated as a change-of-pace back behind Ezekiel Elliott, averaging at least 5.2 yards per attempt in three of his first four seasons. Now, he’s averaged only 4.0 and 4.2 in the last two years.
There are two dynamics at play here. He’s carrying the ball more, which is probably resulting in him wearing down. It’s easier to break off long runs after another back has been pounding on a defense.
And Pollard is also getting older. He’s 28. So I wonder if he’s quite as explosive and dynamic (even before he wears down).
On that front, I played around with some numbers. In the below chart, you’re looking at all running backs who’ve finished a season with at least 100 attempts (since 2002). I’ve sorted those out by age, then look at how many of said backs at each age averaged over 5 yards per attempt.
The three most explosive seasons all came before backs were 25. For 21- and 22-year-olds, more than 20 percent of backs averaged at least 5 yards per carry – better than 1 in 5. And for 24-year-olds, I’m seeing 25 of 152 (16.4 percent).
I see 39 running backs who were at least 32 years old, and none of those guys averaged 5 yards per carry. For 29-year-olds, I see only 2 out of 72.
It didn’t turn out as cool as I was hoping (with the figures for runners who were 28 and 30 a little higher than the average in general), but there does seem to be some general decline as players age.
Regardless how the Titans use Pollard, I don’t think there’s any way he’s going to be running like he did in some of those early years with the Cowboys.
| AVERAGING 5 YARDS PER CARRY | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | No | Total | Pct |
| 21 | 8 | 34 | 23.5% |
| 22 | 18 | 88 | 20.5% |
| 23 | 16 | 134 | 11.9% |
| 24 | 25 | 152 | 16.4% |
| 25 | 18 | 142 | 12.7% |
| 26 | 12 | 117 | 10.3% |
| 27 | 10 | 116 | 8.6% |
| 28 | 13 | 90 | 14.4% |
| 29 | 2 | 72 | 2.8% |
| 30 | 6 | 42 | 14.3% |
| 31 | 3 | 34 | 8.8% |
| 32 | 0 | 22 | 0.0% |
| 33 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% |
| 34 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 35 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 36 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 37 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| Total | 131 | 1060 | 12.4% |
—Ian Allan