Fantasy Index

Factoid

Good backs on bad teams

Raiders ranked last in rushing last year

Ashton Jeanty is an unusually strong running back prospect – pick sixth in the draft. But on the other hand, he’s going to the team that last year ranked last in rushing, so we’ve got opposite forces working against each other.

It’s not something I’m too worried about. It was the 2024 Raiders, after all, who ranked last in rushing – not this year’s team. Las Vegas has a new coaching staff, a new scheme and a bunch of new players – including a quarterback. (And they’ve got Jeanty.)

Chip Kelly is the offensive coordinator now, and he’s got a strong history of putting together good running games. He had a pair of 1,000-yard rushers at Ohio State last year, and his work at UCLA was even more impressive.

I expect Jeanty will be just fine, getting lots of carries and doing good things.

But on this front, I figured I’d put together a chart showing the first-year numbers of some other rookie running backs who landed in less-than-desirable situations.

First we’ve got the last 18 running backs selected in the first three rounds who went to teams that ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing the previous year. All of these guys were drafted in the last 15 years.

I stuck with the first three rounds, so no Bucky Irving, who finished as the 15th-best running back last year despite joining a team that the previous year ranked last in rushing. Irving was a fourth-round pick.

RUNNING BACKS DRAFTED BY BOTTOM-10 RUNNING TEAMS
YearPlayerTmGRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG27161,3077212,02815385.82
2012Doug Martin, T.B.30161,4544721,92612313.62
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.30171,2004671,66710300.73
2015David Johnson, Ari.31165814571,03813217.87
2012Trent Richardson, Cle.32159503671,31712254.78
2013Eddie Lacy, G.B.23151,1782571,43511244.58
2017Leonard Fournette, Jac.25131,0403021,34210230.210
2020Antonio Gibson, Was.24147952471,04211206.214
2019Miles Sanders, Phi.24168185091,3276220.715
2013LeVeon Bell, Pitt.26138603991,2598218.915
2020D'Andre Swift, Det.251352135787810193.816
2010Jahvid Best, Det.26165554871,0426198.220
2019Josh Jacobs, Oak.28131,1501661,3167193.621
2023DeVon Achane, Mia.281180019799711192.725
2015Melvin Gordon, S.D.30146411928330116.345
2011Mark Ingram, N.O.291047446520593.046
2010C.J. Spiller, Buff.2514283157440280.055
2018Rashaad Penny, Sea.281441975494270.468
2025Ashton Jeanty, L.V.32???????

And next, we’ve got 10 running backs (again, all selected in the first three rounds). With these guys, they went to teams that ranked in the top 10 in rushing the previous year.

I don’t see huge differences between the lists. I think Jeanty’s a talent, and I expect he’ll be just fine.

RUNNING BACKS DRAFTED BY TOP-10 RUNNING TEAMS
YearPlayerTmGRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.6151,1692991,46812254.86
2023Bijan Robinson, Atl.4179764871,4638252.38
2017Christian McCaffrey, Car.10164356511,0867230.69
2023Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.9159453161,26111244.110
2022Kenneth Walker, Sea.10151,0501651,2159202.518
2019David Montgomery, Chi.9168891851,0747174.424
2020J.K. Dobbins, Balt.1158051209259168.524
2017Joe Mixon, Cin.9146262879134145.333
2019Devin Singletary, Buff.10127751949694149.933
2018Sony Michel, N.E.813931509816141.134

—Ian Allan

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