I was surprised by the size of the contract Washington gave Matt Gay -- $4.3 million, with almost $4 million guaranteed. That’s one that might come back to bite them.
Gay, as a refresher, has been erratic enough that two different teams have released him. The Bucs drafted him but cut him loose after a season. And the Colts let him go after two disappointing seasons.
Gay was good with the Rams, making 94 percent of his field goals in two and half seasons. The Colts signed him to a four-year deal worth $22.5 million, thinking they’d like to have one of the league’s best players at the position. But he was a bottom-10 kicker in his two seasons there, making only 82 percent.
If Gay underperforms again this year, he'll become the Sam Bradford of kickers.
All 6 of his missed field goals last year were from 50-plus, which perhaps can be used as an excuse of sorts. But kickers today are supposed to bang them in from that range. (Gay has made 11 of 22 from 50-plus the last two years).
For fantasy purposes, I am interested less in accuracy and more in how often he’ll be getting on the field. Washington had the deal last year where all they were doing early was kicking field goals. Austin Seibert scored 97 points in his first eight games, which according to the stat-sorting machine at Pro-Football-Reference is the 2nd-most by a kicker in NFL history.
But later in the season, the Commanders got better (and more aggressive) at finishing drives with touchdowns. They were one of only eight teams to score fewer than 50 kicking points in their last eight games.
| KICKING POINTS, 2024 SEASON | |
|---|---|
| G 2-9 | G 10-17 |
| 97 Washington | 78 LA Chargers |
| 75 San Francisco | 75 Tampa Bay |
| 73 Minnesota | 74 Miami |
| 71 Baltimore | 73 Minnesota |
| 71 Pittsburgh | 72 Philadelphia |
| 70 Houston | 71 Arizona |
| 66 Detroit | 71 Dallas |
| 66 Kansas City | 69 Pittsburgh |
| 65 Atlanta | 68 Denver |
| 65 Green Bay | 68 Detroit |
| 64 Dallas | 67 Indianapolis |
| 62 Buffalo | 66 Green Bay |
| 62 LA Chargers | 63 Las Vegas |
| 61 Denver | 62 Cincinnati |
| 60 Cincinnati | 61 Houston |
| 59 Arizona | 59 Buffalo |
| 59 Indianapolis | 58 Kansas City |
| 58 Las Vegas | 57 Seattle |
| 56 Tampa Bay | 56 Atlanta |
| 55 LA Rams | 56 LA Rams |
| 55 Miami | 54 Carolina |
| 52 Jacksonville | 54 New England |
| 50 New Orleans | 51 Jacksonville |
| 50 Seattle | 50 Tennessee |
| 49 NY Giants | 48 Washington |
| 49 Philadelphia | 47 Baltimore |
| 48 Tennessee | 45 New Orleans |
| 47 Cleveland | 45 NY Jets |
| 42 NY Jets | 42 San Francisco |
| 41 Carolina | 37 Chicago |
| 41 Chicago | 36 NY Giants |
| 39 New England | 20 Cleveland |
I think the offense is different now, with more of a willingness to put the ball in Jayden Daniels’ hands. There were 20 occasions last year in which the Commanders could have kicked a field goal but instead left their offense on the field on fourth down, and 15 of those plays came from November on. (This is including the playoffs – there were 4 of those plays against the Bucs and another 4 at Detroit.)
Typically the better kickers come from the better teams, but will not be selecting Matt Gay this year.
—Ian Allan