Dalton Kincaid isn't getting much love this preseason. He's being drafted outside the top dozen at the position, and the desperation Josh Allen pass he maybe could have caught to keep Buffalo alive in the playoffs sticks in people's memories.
But I have some interest in him. Some. The truth is that Buffalo doesn't have a lot of receivers who should be clearly ahead of him for targets. And the recent history of first-round tight ends in their third seasons, like Kincaid, is promising.
Since 2000, there have been 25 other tight ends drafted in the first round, who have completed their third seasons in the league. (This leaves out the most recent first-rounder before this year, Brock Bowers.) Of those 25 players, almost two-thirds of them (16) put up their best numbers from those first three years in Year 3. Only three of them were best in Year 1, six in Year 2.
So while Kincaid has been a disappointment his first two seasons, one could argue that he's on track with most other first-round picks this century. And it would not be surprising if he delivers his best numbers in 2025.
Table shows those previous first-round picks, with their statistics (receptions-yards-touchdowns) in each of their first three seasons. The best numbers for each player are in bold.
| FIRST-ROUND TIGHT ENDS, YEARS 1-3 (2000-PRESENT) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Pk | Player | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
| 2000 | 14 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 34-363-1 | 36-322-9 | 54-442-7 |
| 2000 | 27 | Anthony Becht, NYJ | 16-144-2 | 36-321-5 | 28-243-5 |
| 2001 | 31 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 16-206-1 | 68-836-6 | 57-693-3 |
| 2002 | 14 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 74-894-2 | 48-535-2 | 61-666-6 |
| 2002 | 21 | Daniel Graham, N.E. | 15-150-1 | 38-409-4 | 30-364-7 |
| 2002 | 28 | Jerramy Stevens, Sea. | 26-252-3 | 6-72-0 | 31-349-3 |
| 2003 | 24 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 29-340-1 | 25-423-5 | 37-448-4 |
| 2004 | 6 | Kellen Winslow, Clev. | 5-50-0 | 0-0-0 | 89-875-3 |
| 2004 | 32 | Benjamin Watson, N.E. | 2-16-0 | 29-441-4 | 49-643-3 |
| 2005 | 30 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 39-459-6 | 34-393-5 | 47-566-7 |
| 2006 | 6 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 20-265-3 | 52-509-4 | 31-358-2 |
| 2006 | 28 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 13-126-1 | 37-391-2 | 41-489-2 |
| 2007 | 31 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 39-391-2 | 54-574-5 | 60-612-8 |
| 2008 | 30 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 48-535-3 | 45-522-2 | 55-687-5 |
| 2009 | 20 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 30-346-2 | 71-722-4 | 83-777-5 |
| 2010 | 21 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 52-471-4 | 56-596-6 | 64-737-5 |
| 2013 | 21 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 39-445-2 | 3-37-0 | 52-615-13 |
| 2014 | 10 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 25-248-1 | 47-537-5 | 61-711-1 |
| 2017 | 19 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 26-432-6 | 34-565-5 | 34-459-1 |
| 2017 | 23 | Evan Engram, NYG | 64-722-6 | 45-577-3 | 44-467-3 |
| 2017 | 29 | David Njoku, Clev. | 32-386-4 | 56-639-4 | 5-41-1 |
| 2018 | 25 | Hayden Hurst, Balt. | 13-163-1 | 30-349-2 | 56-571-6 |
| 2019 | 8 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 32-367-2 | 67-723-6 | 61-583-4 |
| 2019 | 20 | Noah Fant, Den. | 40-562-3 | 62-673-3 | 68-670-4 |
| 2021 | 4 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 68-1026-1 | 28-356-2 | 53-667-3 |
| 2023 | 25 | Dalton Kincaid, Buff. | 73-673-2 | 44-448-2 | ?-?-? |
Now there's a story in the Buffalo News that Kincaid played through multiple knee injuries last season. They were late enough in the year that it can't be said he would have had a dramatically better year if healthy all along, but they were factors in the second half of the season.
The other reality is that it's not a great receiving corps the Bills are putting on the field right now. After Khalil Shakir, there's a lot of pretty marginal (newly signed Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel) or unproven (Keon Coleman) wideouts. Why can't Kincaid be one of the top 2 targets this season?
Kincaid is not going to be highly coveted in drafts, which is fair, but I'm interested. Might be a nice value at the positions who winds up performing at a top-12 level.
--Andy Richardson