I’m a little leery of Joe Mixon. He looks like a guy who could fall apart in a hurry.
He was great last year, of course. A worthy member of that group of transplant running backs who thrived with new teams – Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs.
But I worry that Mixon is getting up there in years. He turns 29 in July. And I worry that Houston didn’t do much of anything to repair an offensive line that was a disaster last year. Their one notable change there was getting rid of their best block (Laremy Tunsil).
They’ve got a new coordinator now. Maybe that helps some. But maybe that also throws off the running game somewhat.
I’m not blacklisting Mixon. It’s possible I’ll pick him if the draft flows a certain way; but my preference would be for somebody else to pick him.
Consider the chart below. It shows the last 20 running backs who finished with top-20 numbers when they were 28 years old. Only five of these backs (tagged with black dots) finished with top-20 numbers again when they were 29.
28-YEAR-OLDS WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS (the next yr) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
2014 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 16 | 1,038 | 808 | 1,846 | 10 | 350.6 | 3 |
2014 | Chris Johnson, NYJ | 16 | 663 | 151 | 814 | 2 | 117.4 | 39 |
2014 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 11 | 297 | 253 | 550 | 2 | 107.0 | 42 |
2014 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Oak. | 12 | 96 | 71 | 167 | 0 | 27.7 | 97 |
2014 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 3 | 38 | 34 | 72 | 0 | 12.2 | 125 |
2014 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1 | 75 | 18 | 93 | 0 | 11.3 | 127 |
2015 | Joique Bell, Det. | 13 | 311 | 286 | 597 | 4 | 105.7 | 50 |
2015 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 5 | 364 | 177 | 541 | 5 | 105.1 | 51 |
2015 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 7 | 417 | 80 | 497 | 3 | 82.7 | 61 |
2015 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 4 | 163 | 227 | 390 | 3 | 79.0 | 65 |
2016 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 3 | 87 | 17 | 104 | 0 | 13.4 | 116 |
2017 | • LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 16 | 1,138 | 448 | 1,586 | 8 | 265.6 | 7 |
2017 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 15 | 659 | 266 | 925 | 7 | 173.5 | 21 |
2017 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 15 | 772 | 170 | 942 | 5 | 147.2 | 30 |
2018 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 12 | 645 | 170 | 815 | 7 | 144.5 | 32 |
2022 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 10 | 318 | 223 | 541 | 2 | 91.1 | 48 |
2023 | • Derrick Henry, Ten. | 17 | 1,167 | 214 | 1,381 | 12 | 246.8 | 9 |
2023 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 11 | 656 | 233 | 889 | 3 | 136.9 | 38 |
2024 | • Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 14 | 950 | 543 | 1,493 | 8 | 265.3 | 9 |
2024 | • James Conner, Ari. | 16 | 1,094 | 414 | 1,508 | 9 | 255.8 | 11 |
2025 | Joe Mixon, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
For those interested in looking at the numbers when those same backs were 28, they’re listed below …
28-YEAR-OLDS WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 14 | 1,266 | 171 | 1,437 | 11 | 238.7 | 10 |
2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 16 | 1,077 | 345 | 1,422 | 10 | 244.2 | 9 |
2013 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 16 | 429 | 605 | 1,034 | 8 | 227.4 | 12 |
2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 16 | 1,339 | 594 | 1,933 | 12 | 341.3 | 2 |
2013 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 15 | 803 | 314 | 1,117 | 5 | 189.1 | 19 |
2013 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 14 | 1,006 | 506 | 1,512 | 7 | 247.2 | 7 |
2014 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 13 | 1,246 | 327 | 1,573 | 13 | 277.6 | 5 |
2014 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 15 | 1,033 | 291 | 1,324 | 14 | 256.4 | 7 |
2014 | Joique Bell, Det. | 15 | 860 | 322 | 1,182 | 8 | 200.2 | 13 |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 16 | 1,306 | 367 | 1,673 | 17 | 306.3 | 4 |
2015 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 16 | 1,089 | 328 | 1,417 | 3 | 201.7 | 13 |
2016 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 16 | 722 | 388 | 1,110 | 5 | 199.0 | 17 |
2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 16 | 1,287 | 377 | 1,664 | 12 | 295.9 | 5 |
2016 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 15 | 1,267 | 356 | 1,623 | 14 | 298.3 | 4 |
2017 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 16 | 1,124 | 416 | 1,540 | 12 | 284.0 | 6 |
2021 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 16 | 918 | 213 | 1,131 | 10 | 201.1 | 18 |
2022 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 17 | 1,121 | 395 | 1,516 | 7 | 254.6 | 7 |
2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 16 | 1,538 | 398 | 1,936 | 13 | 308.8 | 4 |
2023 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 13 | 694 | 466 | 1,160 | 6 | 233.0 | 12 |
2023 | James Conner, Ari. | 13 | 1,040 | 165 | 1,205 | 9 | 201.5 | 19 |
2024 | Joe Mixon, Hou. | 14 | 1,016 | 309 | 1,325 | 12 | 240.5 | 17 |
—Ian Allan