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Factoid

Joe Mixon tries to stay on top

Running backs can decline in age-29 seasons

I’m a little leery of Joe Mixon. He looks like a guy who could fall apart in a hurry.

He was great last year, of course. A worthy member of that group of transplant running backs who thrived with new teams – Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs.

But I worry that Mixon is getting up there in years. He turns 29 in July. And I worry that Houston didn’t do much of anything to repair an offensive line that was a disaster last year. Their one notable change there was getting rid of their best block (Laremy Tunsil).

They’ve got a new coordinator now. Maybe that helps some. But maybe that also throws off the running game somewhat.

I’m not blacklisting Mixon. It’s possible I’ll pick him if the draft flows a certain way; but my preference would be for somebody else to pick him.

Consider the chart below. It shows the last 20 running backs who finished with top-20 numbers when they were 28 years old. Only five of these backs (tagged with black dots) finished with top-20 numbers again when they were 29.

28-YEAR-OLDS WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS (the next yr)
YearPlayerGRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2014• Matt Forte, Chi.161,0388081,84610350.63
2014Chris Johnson, NYJ166631518142117.439
2014Reggie Bush, Det.112972535502107.042
2014Maurice Jones-Drew, Oak.129671167027.797
2014Danny Woodhead, S.D.3383472012.2125
2014Adrian Peterson, Min.1751893011.3127
2015Joique Bell, Det.133112865974105.750
2015Jamaal Charles, K.C.53641775415105.151
2015Marshawn Lynch, Sea.741780497382.761
2015Arian Foster, Hou.4163227390379.065
2016Darren McFadden, Dall.38717104013.4116
2017• LeSean McCoy, Buff.161,1384481,5868265.67
2017DeMarco Murray, Ten.156592669257173.521
2017Bilal Powell, NYJ157721709425147.230
2018Mark Ingram, N.O.126451708157144.532
2022Melvin Gordon, Den.10318223541291.148
2023• Derrick Henry, Ten.171,1672141,38112246.89
2023Aaron Jones, G.B.116562338893136.938
2024• Alvin Kamara, N.O.149505431,4938265.39
2024• James Conner, Ari.161,0944141,5089255.811
2025Joe Mixon, Hou.???????

For those interested in looking at the numbers when those same backs were 28, they’re listed below …

28-YEAR-OLDS WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS
YearPlayerGRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2013Adrian Peterson, Min.141,2661711,43711238.710
2013Chris Johnson, Ten.161,0773451,42210244.29
2013Danny Woodhead, S.D.164296051,0348227.412
2013Matt Forte, Chi.161,3395941,93312341.32
2013Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.158033141,1175189.119
2013Reggie Bush, Det.141,0065061,5127247.27
2014Arian Foster, Hou.131,2463271,57313277.65
2014Jamaal Charles, K.C.151,0332911,32414256.47
2014Joique Bell, Det.158603221,1828200.213
2014Marshawn Lynch, Sea.161,3063671,67317306.34
2015Darren McFadden, Dall.161,0893281,4173201.713
2016Bilal Powell, NYJ167223881,1105199.017
2016DeMarco Murray, Ten.161,2873771,66412295.95
2016LeSean McCoy, Buff.151,2673561,62314298.34
2017Mark Ingram, N.O.161,1244161,54012284.06
2021Melvin Gordon, Den.169182131,13110201.118
2022Aaron Jones, G.B.171,1213951,5167254.67
2022Derrick Henry, Ten.161,5383981,93613308.84
2023Alvin Kamara, N.O.136944661,1606233.012
2023James Conner, Ari.131,0401651,2059201.519
2024Joe Mixon, Hou.141,0163091,32512240.517

—Ian Allan

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