I have been leery of Christian McCaffrey; he’s missed over half of three of his last five seasons. But my confidence in that position has been chipped away some over the past few days, with McCaffrey and Kyle Shanahan gushing over how healthy he is.
Via Nick Wagoner of ESPN, McCaffrey says he attended all of the team’s offseason workouts and is healthy and ready to roll. “I think this offseason I spent a lot of time kind of building back a base starting from scratch, so a lot of it was rehab,” McCaffrey said, “and [I] wanted to put myself in a position where I didn’t miss a day of OTAs and I could practice and play football again, be healthy and not miss a day, and I did that.”
Shanahan says he likes what he’s seeing. “He is a psycho in a good way, and so like he does everything imaginable every single day,” the coach said. “Last year he couldn’t because he was battling injury all last year. And this year he is healthy so he is right back to being who he has always been and it’s really fun to watch.”
Also on the McCaffrey front, Trent Williams – their key offensive lineman – is healthy and ready to roll. It has me wondering if my initial stab at McCaffrey (he’s not among the top 10 running backs on my board) is too low. For all their problems (which included McCaffrey missing 13 games) the 49ers still ranked 4th in yards gained last year. Just 38 touchdowns, but they scored 50 and 60 touchdowns in the 2022-23 seasons.
If McCaffrey can get back to performing anything like he did in the 2022-23 seasons, he’ll be one of the top few running backs in the league. With the 49ers in those seasons, he averaged 120 yards (82 run, 38 rec), with 31 touchdowns in 27 games.
At the same time, McCaffrey is 29, and running backs can decline in a hurry. Consider the following chart, which shows the 10 other 29-year-olds with a pair of 2,000-yard seasons on their resumes – guys who had been great. Only half of them finished with top-10 numbers, and only one (the late O.J. Simpson) averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry. Four of these backs averaged under 4 per attempt.
| 29-YEAR-OLDS WITH TWO 2,000-YARD SEASONS | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Run | YPA | Receive | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 1976 | O.J. Simpson, Buff. | 14 | 1503 | 5.2 | 22-259 | 1762 | 9 | 252.2 | 3 |
| 2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 1110 | 3.8 | 52-426 | 1536 | 12 | 277.6 | 6 |
| 1989 | Roger Craig, S.F. | 16 | 1054 | 3.9 | 49-473 | 1527 | 7 | 243.7 | 6 |
| 1998 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 16 | 1332 | 4.2 | 27-175 | 1507 | 15 | 267.7 | 7 |
| 2002 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 14 | 953 | 4.5 | 80-537 | 1490 | 10 | 289.0 | 10 |
| 1989 | Eric Dickerson, Ind. | 15 | 1311 | 4.2 | 30-211 | 1522 | 8 | 230.2 | 11 |
| 2007 | Edgerrin James, Ari. | 16 | 1222 | 3.8 | 24-204 | 1426 | 7 | 208.6 | 13 |
| 1995 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 14 | 1005 | 3.8 | 26-220 | 1225 | 8 | 196.5 | 20 |
| 2008 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 12 | 874 | 4.5 | 12-74 | 948 | 5 | 141.0 | 40 |
| 2001 | Terrell Davis, Den. | 8 | 701 | 4.2 | 12-69 | 770 | 0 | 89.0 | 48 |
| 2025 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Twelve 30-year-olds have entered seasons with a pair of 2,000-yard seasons. Only three finished with top-10 numbers. None averaged 4.5 per attempt.
| 30-YEAR-OLDS WITH TWO 2,000-YARD SEASONS | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Run | YPA | Receive | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 16 | 1420 | 4.4 | 74-690 | 2110 | 27 | 447.0 | 1 |
| 1984 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 16 | 1684 | 4.4 | 45-368 | 2052 | 11 | 326.6 | 4 |
| 1999 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 15 | 1397 | 4.3 | 27-119 | 1516 | 13 | 256.6 | 7 |
| 1998 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 16 | 1491 | 4.4 | 37-289 | 1780 | 4 | 239.0 | 11 |
| 1996 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 15 | 1033 | 3.7 | 26-254 | 1287 | 8 | 202.7 | 12 |
| 2003 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 11 | 818 | 3.9 | 45-290 | 1108 | 11 | 221.8 | 16 |
| 2009 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 14 | 730 | 3.3 | 20-154 | 884 | 12 | 180.4 | 24 |
| 1990 | Eric Dickerson, Ind. | 11 | 677 | 4.1 | 18-92 | 769 | 4 | 118.9 | 35 |
| 1990 | Roger Craig, S.F. | 11 | 439 | 3.1 | 25-201 | 640 | 1 | 95.0 | 49 |
| 1977 | O.J. Simpson, Buff. | 7 | 557 | 4.4 | 16-138 | 695 | 0 | 85.5 | 54 |
| 2009 | Larry Johnson, 2tms | 14 | 581 | 3.3 | 15-80 | 661 | 0 | 81.1 | 55 |
| 2008 | Edgerrin James, Ari. | 13 | 514 | 3.9 | 12-85 | 599 | 3 | 91.9 | 56 |
I’m not ready to put McCaffrey ahead of guys like Kyren Williams and Ashton Jeanty, but I can see the logic in taking a big swing on him early. A lot of the risk of that gamble would be mitigated if the team could also land Isaac Guerendo in the middle rounds. (The 49ers also picked up Jordan James in the fifth round, and he’s worth a look in camp.)
—Ian Allan