Six wide receivers were selected in the third round back in April, and initial reports on several have been favorable. Pat Bryant (pictured) is drawing praise in Denver. Kyle Williams looks good for the Patriots. Etc.
I'm intrigued, especially in dynasty formats. I drafted Bryant, and considered Detroit's Isaac TeSlaa. But I also think some restraint is necessary, especially in their first seasons.
Over the past 10 years, there have been 44 wide receivers selected in the third round of the draft. Only one of them (Cooper Kupp) put up top-25 numbers in PPR leagues in his rookie season. Three others at least finished in the top 40: Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson and Tank Dell. So roughly speaking, about a 10 percent chance that a third-round rookie emerges a regular starter at the position, based on the recent history.
Table shows those 44 third-round wideouts from 2015-2024, sorted by finish in PPR leagues.
| 3RD-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2015-PRESENT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Rk |
| 2017 | 69 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 94 | 62 | 869 | 5 | 25 |
| 2019 | 76 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 93 | 58 | 919 | 7 | 30 |
| 2019 | 66 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 92 | 59 | 680 | 6 | 39 |
| 2023 | 69 | Tank Dell, Hou. | 75 | 47 | 709 | 7 | 39 |
| 2015 | 69 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 69 | 51 | 664 | 8 | 41 |
| 2023 | 79 | Josh Downs, Ind. | 98 | 68 | 771 | 2 | 44 |
| 2024 | 92 | Jalen McMillan, T.B. | 58 | 37 | 461 | 8 | 55 |
| 2023 | 94 | Michael Wilson, Ari. | 58 | 38 | 565 | 3 | 60 |
| 2017 | 96 | Kenny Golladay, Det. | 48 | 28 | 477 | 3 | 70 |
| 2017 | 84 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 55 | 34 | 525 | 1 | 72 |
| 2018 | 91 | TreQuan Smith, N.O. | 44 | 28 | 427 | 5 | 73 |
| 2021 | 77 | Joshua Palmer, LAC | 49 | 33 | 353 | 4 | 76 |
| 2018 | 81 | Michael Gallup, Dall. | 68 | 33 | 507 | 2 | 78 |
| 2021 | 89 | Nico Collins, Hou. | 61 | 33 | 446 | 1 | 87 |
| 2023 | 100 | Tre Tucker, L.V. | 34 | 19 | 331 | 2 | 89 |
| 2023 | 73 | Jalin Hyatt, NYG | 40 | 23 | 373 | 0 | 101 |
| 2019 | 93 | Miles Boykin, Balt. | 22 | 13 | 198 | 3 | 107 |
| 2017 | 72 | Taywan Taylor, Ten. | 28 | 16 | 231 | 1 | 110 |
| 2015 | 70 | Jaelen Strong, Hou. | 24 | 14 | 161 | 3 | 111 |
| 2020 | 80 | Lynn Bowden, Mia. | 37 | 28 | 211 | 0 | 115 |
| 2020 | 92 | Devin Duvernay, Balt. | 26 | 20 | 201 | 1 | 117 |
| 2023 | 74 | Cedric Tillman, Cle. | 44 | 21 | 224 | 0 | 118 |
| 2015 | 76 | Chris Conley, K.C. | 31 | 17 | 199 | 1 | 120 |
| 2022 | 99 | David Bell, Cle. | 35 | 24 | 214 | 0 | 121 |
| 2015 | 94 | Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 19 | 15 | 136 | 2 | 122 |
| 2024 | 100 | Luke McCaffrey, Was. | 24 | 18 | 168 | 0 | 126 |
| 2022 | 71 | Velus Jones, Chi. | 14 | 7 | 107 | 2 | 126 |
| 2016 | 85 | Braxton Miller, Hou. | 28 | 15 | 99 | 1 | 133 |
| 2020 | 81 | Bryan Edwards, L.V. | 15 | 11 | 193 | 1 | 134 |
| 2021 | 91 | Anthony Schwartz, Cle. | 23 | 10 | 135 | 1 | 138 |
| 2021 | 82 | Dyami Brown, Was. | 25 | 12 | 165 | 0 | 147 |
| 2017 | 79 | ArDarius Stewart, NYJ | 13 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 148 |
| 2017 | 106 | Amara Darboh, Sea. | 13 | 8 | 71 | 0 | 154 |
| 2024 | 80 | Jermaine Burton, Cin. | 14 | 4 | 107 | 0 | 157 |
| 2016 | 86 | Leonte Carroo, Mia. | 6 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 164 |
| 2017 | 98 | Chad Williams, Ari. | 7 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 169 |
| 2024 | 65 | Malachi Corley, NYJ | 6 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 177 |
| 2021 | 85 | Amari Rodgers, G.B. | 8 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 182 |
| 2015 | 87 | Sammie Coates, Pitt. | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 190 |
| 2022 | 88 | Jalen Tolbert, Dall. | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 203 |
| 2022 | 105 | Danny Gray, S.F. | 7 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 206 |
| 2017 | 82 | Carlos Henderson, Den. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
| 2019 | 67 | Jalen Hurd, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
| 2024 | 84 | Roman Wilson, Pitt. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
From the table, you'll notice the five third-round picks from 2024. Three of them -- Wilson, Corley, Burton -- did absolutely nothing, making headlines strictly for things like annoying coaching staffs and, in the case of Corley, tossing aside a sure touchdown a couple of feet short of the goal line. McCaffrey didn't do much more, averaging a catch per game. McMillan was the best, catching 8 touchdowns for Tampa Bay, and he's going to have to hold off first-rounder Emeka Egbuka this year just to remain among the top 3 wideouts.
Odds being against them or no, there's certainly reason to take fliers on some of these guys. With Bryant and Williams, most notably, they're stepping into situations where there's a veteran No. 1 (Courtland Sutton and Stefon Diggs) but no standout No. 2. Bryant has drawn early praise from the coaches, as has Williams. Both TeSlaa and Tai Felton in Minnesota are going to strong passing offenses where they could push for a top-3 role right away. And Jaylin Noel in Houston could do the same, with only Nico Collins and Christian Kirk guaranteed anything.
But in general, best to tread carefully drafting these guys. Players like Cooper Kupp and Terry McLaurin highlight the potential, but more often than not you get modest production from these picks.
--Andy Richardson