I touched on RJ Harvey in a story on the Broncos signing J.K. Dobbins last week, but it looks like further discussion is warranted. Some of the spin from the last few days is a little crazy.
Denver drafted Harvey in the second round and talked him up afterward, which was duly covered in our preseason magazine, which will be showing up to those who ordered it in the next couple of weeks. But then Denver signed free agent Dobbins, throwing some cold water on the idea of Harvey being a busy rookie. And that's fine; it's certainly competition in the backfield.
But to read a couple of ESPN items, or at least the interpretation of them by some, it sounds like Harvey would be lucky to have much of a role at all. And that's just nuts.
The first story was innocuous enough, saying that Dobbins "could get a long look in the third-down role." That's critical to a running back's fantasy value in Sean Payton's offense. But Dobbins averaged a catch and a half per game in college and has averaged a catch and a half per game in the pros, so getting a look at something is a far cry from actually taking on those duties. Something to keep in mind, but not necessarily worry about, if you're planning to draft Harvey.
ESPN's Jeff Legwold's latest camp report has now prompted additional hand-wringing, but it looks a little overblown. The gist is that Denver might not have many training camp battles, with starters and key roles seemingly set at most position. The specific reference to Harvey reads "There might be situational roles open for players such as rookie defensive back Jahdae Barron and rookie running back RJ Harvey, along with questions about how the rotation plays out at wide receiver or in the defensive line. But traditional training camp battles to pick a starter will be few and far between on a roster Payton believes is ready to achieve playoff success." Rotoworld's interpretation -- "might be a situational role for Harvey" -- is somewhat gloomy.
So one of reading of all this is that J.K. Dobbins will be getting a three-down role in Payton's offense, and Harvey might pick up a few scraps in situations here and there. Allow me to disagree.
Dobbins has played in a total of 22 games over the past four seasons. Two years in a row a Harbaugh brother -- coaches for whom running the ball is in their core DNA -- has had zero interest in bringing him back. There's a reason why he's out there free to sign with a team in mid-June, and it's not because a workhorse role for a playoff contender is his likeliest outcome. Might Dobbins start and be the main runner for the Broncos this year, sure. But let's consider the larger reality that he's missed at least 4 games four years in a row and much more than that in three of those.
Harvey is Payton's second-round pick, the 5th running back drafted in what was considered a very strong and deep draft for the position. In the last 10 years there have been 21 running backs selected in the second round. A very small percentage of those players who stayed healthy had "situational roles" as rookies.
Looking at the numbers: 10 of the 21 finished in the top 35 at the position in PPR leagues; seven in the top 25. Two others (Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook) definitely would have had they not missed more than half of their rookie seasons due to injury. And two others (Derrius Guice, Jonathon Brooks) were hurt all season.
About half of the seven second-rounders who actually played situational roles as rookies were stuck behind elite starters: Aaron Jones, DeMarco Murray, Kenneth Walker. (In the table, sorted by PPR ranking as rookies, guys who were injured for more than half the season are in italics.)
| 2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACK ROOKIE NUMBERS, 2015-2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 15 | 1169 | 36 | 299 | 12 | 6 |
| 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 16 | 818 | 50 | 509 | 6 | 15 |
| 2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 13 | 521 | 46 | 357 | 10 | 16 |
| 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 16 | 996 | 20 | 149 | 10 | 17 |
| 2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 17 | 903 | 43 | 316 | 7 | 17 |
| 2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 15 | 1050 | 27 | 165 | 9 | 18 |
| 2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 15 | 805 | 18 | 120 | 9 | 24 |
| 2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 12 | 740 | 36 | 279 | 3 | 28 |
| 2017 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 14 | 626 | 30 | 287 | 4 | 33 |
| 2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 10 | 641 | 32 | 213 | 4 | 33 |
| 2022 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 7 | 463 | 19 | 218 | 5 | 42 |
| 2015 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 16 | 597 | 25 | 183 | 3 | 44 |
| 2022 | James Cook, Buff. | 16 | 507 | 21 | 180 | 3 | 44 |
| 2016 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 15 | 490 | 13 | 137 | 5 | 45 |
| 2020 | Cam Akers, LAR | 13 | 625 | 11 | 123 | 3 | 45 |
| 2023 | Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 16 | 462 | 33 | 209 | 1 | 45 |
| 2017 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 4 | 354 | 11 | 90 | 2 | 72 |
| 2020 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 11 | 242 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 83 |
| 2018 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 9 | 44 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 95 |
| 2024 | Jonathon Brooks, Car. | 3 | 22 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 114 |
| 2018 | Derrius Guice, Was. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
Maybe Dobbins will be the guy in Denver. If healthy, he's comparable to, say, Kenneth Walker, perhaps having a featured role that leaves Harvey stuck as this season's Zach Charbonnet, not getting a ton of work in most games.
But I doubt it. I will take the ADP dip on Harvey and select him on my best-ball teams, which will now be a lot easier than it was a week ago. Anything can happen, but I believe Sean Payton's second-round pick is a safer choice with more upside than Dobbins is likely to have. More likely to earn that role in the passing game, and more likely to see an expanded role (and stay on the field) as the year goes on.
--Andy Richardson