Ray-Ray McCloud and Elijah Moore both caught over 60 passes last year, but each caught only one touchdown all year. That’s pretty putrid. In the last 15 years, only one other receiver with at least 60 catches has caught even fewer passes.
It makes it tough to have much confidence that either will be much of a scorer this year. As poorly as each fared at getting in the end zone last year, however, you would reasonably conclude they’ll at least be a little better as scorers. “Regression to the mean” is a term you hear tossed around, though in this case I suppose “Progression to the mean” is more appropriate.
On this front, we can look at similarly crappy receivers from the past, then look at how they fared in their next season.
Here are the lowest-scoring receivers of the last 15 years – going by touchdown percentage among wide receivers with at least 50 catches. I’m listing 24 guys, which is an unusual numbers, because Eric Decker and Kendall Wright didn’t in their next season and McCloud and Moore obviously also haven’t yet played in their next season.
Of the 20 other guys, they averaged 3.7 catches for 40 yards, scoring on only 1.8 percent of their catches.
If we look at those same guys for their next season, they averaged a half catch less per game, but with over 3 times as many touchdowns (5.9 percent).
The bulk of the improvement, on the downside, was produced by one player, with Davante Adams improving from one touchdown in 2015 to 12 in 2016. Of these 20 players, only five others made it up to 4-5 touchdowns. Adams was the only one with more than 5.
For players with 50-plus catches, the NFL average is 8 percent – a typical player with 100 receptions finishes with 8 TDs. Only five of the 20 receivers in this group made it past that 8 percent threshold. That’s evidence that when you have a low-scoring receiver (like McCloud or Moore), he’ll continue to be a low-scoring player.
| LOW-SCORING RECEIVERS (the next season) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Rec | Yds | TD | Rk |
| 2014 | • Hakeem Nicks, Ind. | 16 | 38 | 405 | 4 | 10.5% |
| 2013 | Jason Avant, Phil. | 16 | 38 | 447 | 2 | 5.3% |
| 2022 | Laviska Shenault, Car. | 13 | 27 | 272 | 1 | 3.7% |
| 2018 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | Ray-Ray McCloud, Atl. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | • Willie Snead, Balt. | 16 | 31 | 339 | 5 | 16.1% |
| 2025 | Elijah Moore, Buff. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | Adam Humphries, T.B. | 16 | 76 | 816 | 5 | 6.6% |
| 2018 | Kendall Wright | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2019 | Danny Amendola, Det. | 15 | 62 | 678 | 1 | 1.6% |
| 2018 | Eric Decker | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2017 | • Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 10 | 22 | 225 | 2 | 9.1% |
| 2022 | Rondale Moore, Ari. | 8 | 41 | 414 | 1 | 2.4% |
| 2012 | Austin Collie, Ind. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | Jason Avant, Phil. | 14 | 53 | 648 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | • Robert Woods, LAR | 12 | 56 | 781 | 5 | 8.9% |
| 2015 | Percy Harvin, Buff. | 5 | 19 | 218 | 1 | 5.3% |
| 2011 | Jason Avant, Phil. | 16 | 52 | 679 | 1 | 1.9% |
| 2014 | Ace Sanders, Jac. | 12 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | • Davante Adams, G.B. | 16 | 75 | 997 | 12 | 16.0% |
| 2024 | Tyler Boyd, Ten. | 16 | 39 | 390 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | Greg Little, Cle. | 16 | 53 | 647 | 4 | 7.5% |
| 2012 | Steve Breaston, K.C. | 10 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | Elijah Moore, Cle. | 17 | 61 | 538 | 1 | 1.6% |
For our two current guys, neither looks all that promising. McCloud should be playing in the slot again; the Falcons haven’t added any notable receivers who might push him onto the bench. So I guess we can say he looks like a reasonable choice to again catch 50-plus passes. But with a limited role and without being much of a factor on downfield routes, I can’t say with any confidence that he’ll catch more than 2 TDs.
With Moore (who’s had low-scoring seasons two years in a row), I think the outlook is even more bleak. He’s moving from Cleveland to Buffalo, which should result in less playing time and a lesser role. (As an amusing aside, note that the Bills have also signed Laviska Shenault, the only active receiver who’s had a season with 50-plus catches and no touchdowns).
—Ian Allan