I don’t expect I’ll be drafting Ashton Jeanty. He’s a solid enough prospect – the best rookie running back to come along in a while – but I don’t like the price tag of what it will take to get him.
If the ADP is to be believed, for example, Jeanty will be picked before Kyren Williams. I have no interest in that. Williams plays for a better team and has proven he can do it. It wouldn’t make sense to pick Jeanty while Williams was sitting there.
Some will point out that Williams doesn’t have much speed. He’s not going to be scoring any touchdowns from 30-plus yards. He’s not dynamic. And that’s fair. Williams also wasn’t used extensively as a pass catcher last year. He catches the ball fine but averaged only 2.1 receptions last year, which is well below average for a starting running back.
But I like Williams’ workload; he averaged almost 20 carries per game over the last two years. And I like the way they use him around the goal line.
Through some combination of his ability and the structure of the offense, Williams has been about the most effective goal-line runner in the league over the last two years. (Among running backs, anyway – Jalen Hurts has been tough on those Tush Push plays.) Sean McVay, apparently, has a good feel for how to attack defenses in that area.
Over the last two years, Williams has a league-high 37 carries inside the 5. Setting aside Hurts, he’s run for 4 more touchodwns than anyone else in that part of the field.
Looking at just that part of the field, only one player has averaged more yards per carry (Bijan Robinson), and only three have scored on a higher percentage of their rushing attempts (Hurts, Josh Allen and Robinson).
(Overall, Williams has scored 31 touchdowns in 28 games the last two years, the best rate among running backs.)
The below chart shows the 18 players with at least 20 carries inside the 5-yard line over the last two years.
While I like Jeanty fine, I will not be selecting him before Kyren Williams.
| RUSHING ATTEMPTS INSIDE 5 (last 2 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | TD% |
| Kyren Williams, LAR | 37 | 70 | 1.9 | 21 | 56.8% |
| David Montgomery, Det. | 36 | 51 | 1.4 | 17 | 47.2% |
| Derrick Henry, Ten.-Bal. | 36 | 38 | 1.1 | 17 | 47.2% |
| Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 35 | 34 | 1.0 | 24 | 68.6% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin.-Hou. | 35 | 38 | 1.1 | 13 | 37.1% |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V.-G.B. | 32 | 38 | 1.2 | 16 | 50.0% |
| Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 32 | 31 | 1.0 | 11 | 34.4% |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 30 | 34 | 1.1 | 12 | 40.0% |
| Gus Edwards, Bal.-LAC | 29 | 49 | 1.7 | 16 | 55.2% |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle.-K.C. | 29 | 40 | 1.4 | 13 | 44.8% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 28 | 40 | 1.4 | 14 | 50.0% |
| Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 27 | 14 | .5 | 9 | 33.3% |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 25 | 30 | 1.2 | 15 | 60.0% |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG-Phi. | 25 | 34 | 1.4 | 9 | 36.0% |
| Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 24 | 18 | .8 | 13 | 54.2% |
| James Conner, Ari. | 24 | 34 | 1.4 | 11 | 45.8% |
| D'Andre Swift, Phi.-Chi. | 24 | 19 | .8 | 7 | 29.2% |
| Najee Harris, Pitt. | 23 | 30 | 1.3 | 8 | 34.8% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 23 | 28 | 1.2 | 7 | 30.4% |
| Tony Pollard, Dal.-Ten. | 22 | 22 | 1.0 | 5 | 22.7% |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC-Was. | 21 | 23 | 1.1 | 8 | 38.1% |
| Brian Robinson, Was. | 21 | 25 | 1.2 | 6 | 28.6% |
| Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 20 | 38 | 1.9 | 13 | 65.0% |
| James Cook, Buff. | 20 | 26 | 1.3 | 8 | 40.0% |
| Aaron Jones, G.B.-Min. | 20 | 3 | .2 | 5 | 25.0% |
| Alexander Mattison, Min.-L.V. | 20 | -4 | -.2 | 4 | 20.0% |
—Ian Allan