I have some interest in the Giants’ defense. They had their pass rush going pretty good for a while last year, with 35 sacks in the first half of the season. Now they’ve added the best pass rusher in the draft.
Abdul Carter went 3rd overall. He had 12 sacks last year at Penn State. If they can get him going, along with what they already have, we could be looking at one of the top half dozen pass rushes in the league.
At the same time, he’s a rookie, with the potential for some learning curve issues. And he’s just one guy.
In the 32-team era, 32 other front-seven players have been picked with top-5 picks. Only 17 of those 32 teams (just over half) finished with more than 3 additional sacks (as a team).
Ten of those 32 teams finished with at least 10 more sacks. Just under a third, and that’s what you’re hoping for with Carter. But 12 of those 32 didn’t finish with more sacks (including one that held steady).
As a group, these top-5 draft picks averaged 4.9 sacks as a rookie. Their teams averaged 32 sacks the year before they arrived, and moved up to about 36 in their rookie seasons.
In the chart below, teams improving by at least 10 sacks are in bold. Those that didn’t improve are flagged with black dots.
The list is a little subjective in that I removed a few players who were clearly never intended to be pass rushers – some middle linebackers and nose tackles. But that involves wading into some gray area. But the numbers provide a general sense of reasonable expectations.
| USING TOP-5 PICKS ON FRONT SEVEN DEFENDERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Player | Pk | Sack | Tm Bef | Tm Aft | Diff |
| 2023 | Houston | DE Will Anderson | 3 | 7.0 | 39 | 46 | 7 |
| 2022 | Jacksonville | OLB Travon Walker | 1 | 3.5 | 32 | 35 | 3 |
| 2022 | Detroit | DE Aidan Hutchinson | 2 | 9.5 | 30 | 39 | 9 |
| 2022 | NY Giants | OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux | 5 | 4.0 | 34 | 41 | 7 |
| 2020 | Washington | DE Chase Young | 2 | 7.5 | 46 | 47 | 1 |
| 2019 | San Francisco | DE Nick Bosa | 2 | 9.0 | 37 | 48 | 11 |
| 2019 | • NY Jets | DT Quinnen Williams | 3 | 2.5 | 39 | 35 | -4 |
| 2019 | Oakland | DE Clelin Ferrell | 4 | 4.5 | 13 | 32 | 19 |
| 2018 | Denver | OLB Bradley Chubb | 5 | 12.0 | 33 | 44 | 11 |
| 2017 | Cleveland | DE Myles Garrett | 1 | 7.0 | 26 | 34 | 8 |
| 2017 | • San Francisco | DE Solomon Thomas | 3 | 3.0 | 33 | 30 | -3 |
| 2016 | San Diego | DE Joey Bosa | 3 | 10.5 | 32 | 35 | 3 |
| 2016 | • Jacksonville | DE Dante Fowler | 3 | 4.0 | 36 | 33 | -3 |
| 2014 | Houston | LB Jadeveon Clowney | 1 | .0 | 32 | 38 | 6 |
| 2014 | • Oakland | LB Khalil Mack | 5 | 4.0 | 38 | 22 | -16 |
| 2013 | • Miami | DE Dion Jordan | 3 | 2.0 | 42 | 42 | 0 |
| 2013 | • Detroit | DE Ezekiel Ansah | 5 | 8.0 | 34 | 33 | -1 |
| 2011 | Denver | LB Von Miller | 2 | 11.5 | 23 | 41 | 18 |
| 2010 | • Dallas | DT Josh Brent | 1 | .0 | 42 | 35 | -7 |
| 2010 | Detroit | DT Ndamukong Suh | 2 | 10.0 | 26 | 44 | 18 |
| 2010 | • Tampa Bay | DT Gerald McCoy | 3 | 3.0 | 28 | 26 | -2 |
| 2009 | Washington | DE Jeremy Jarmon | 1 | .0 | 24 | 40 | 16 |
| 2009 | Kansas City | DE Tyson Jackson | 3 | .0 | 10 | 22 | 12 |
| 2009 | • Seattle | LB Aaron Curry | 4 | 2.0 | 35 | 28 | -7 |
| 2008 | • St. Louis | DE Chris Long | 2 | 4.0 | 31 | 30 | -1 |
| 2008 | • Kansas City | DT Glenn Dorsey | 5 | 1.0 | 37 | 10 | -27 |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | DE Gaines Adams | 4 | 6.0 | 25 | 33 | 8 |
| 2006 | • Houston | DE Mario Williams | 1 | 4.5 | 37 | 28 | -9 |
| 2006 | Green Bay | LB A.J. Hawk | 5 | 3.5 | 35 | 46 | 11 |
| 2005 | Miami | DT Manuel Wright | 1 | 1.0 | 36 | 49 | 13 |
| 2003 | NY Jets | DT Dewayne Robertson | 4 | 1.5 | 30 | 35 | 5 |
| 2002 | Carolina | DE Julius Peppers | 2 | 12.0 | 26 | 52 | 26 |
As long as we’ve got the numbers out, we may as well also present those for other players picked in the top 10. There were another 24 chosen between 6th and 10th.
For this other group of players, they also averaged 4.9 sacks as rookies. The team totals held steady, with the defenses averaging just over 36 sacks in both the year before the players showed up and in their rookie seasons.
Ten of these 24 defenses finished with more than 3 additional sacks (and they’re in bold). But 10 finished with not more sacks (tagged with dots).
| USING TOP-5 PICKS ON FRONT SEVEN DEFENDERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Player | Pk | Sack | Tm Bef | Tm Aft | Diff |
| 2023 | Las Vegas | DE Tyree Wilson | 7 | 3.5 | 40 | 46 | 6 |
| 2023 | • Philadelphia | DT Jalen Carter | 9 | 6.0 | 70 | 43 | -27 |
| 2020 | Arizona | LB Isaiah Simmons | 8 | 2.0 | 40 | 48 | 8 |
| 2020 | • Carolina | DT Derrick Brown | 7 | 2.0 | 53 | 29 | -24 |
| 2019 | Jacksonville | LB Josh Hines-Allen | 7 | 10.5 | 37 | 47 | 10 |
| 2019 | Buffalo | DT Ed Oliver | 9 | 5.0 | 36 | 44 | 8 |
| 2016 | San Francisco | DE DeForest Buckner | 7 | 6.0 | 28 | 33 | 5 |
| 2016 | Chicago | OLB Leonard Floyd | 9 | 7.0 | 35 | 37 | 2 |
| 2015 | • Atlanta | DE Vic Beasley | 8 | 4.0 | 22 | 19 | -3 |
| 2015 | • NY Jets | DE Leonard Williams | 6 | 3.0 | 45 | 39 | -6 |
| 2014 | • Minnesota | LB Anthony Barr | 9 | 4.0 | 41 | 41 | 0 |
| 2013 | Cleveland | LB Barkevious Mingo | 6 | 5.0 | 38 | 40 | 2 |
| 2011 | San Francisco | LB Aldon Smith | 7 | 14.0 | 36 | 42 | 6 |
| 2010 | Jacksonville | DT Tyson Alualu | 10 | 3.5 | 14 | 26 | 12 |
| 2008 | NY Jets | DE Vernon Gholston | 6 | .0 | 29 | 41 | 12 |
| 2008 | • New Orleans | DT Sedrick Ellis | 7 | 4.0 | 32 | 28 | -4 |
| 2008 | • Jacksonville | DE Derrick Harvey | 8 | 3.5 | 37 | 29 | -8 |
| 2007 | Houston | DT Amobi Okoye | 10 | 5.5 | 28 | 31 | 3 |
| 2007 | • Atlanta | DE Jamaal Anderson | 8 | .0 | 37 | 25 | -12 |
| 2003 | Baltimore | LB Terrell Suggs | 10 | 12.0 | 33 | 47 | 14 |
| 2003 | Minnesota | DE Kevin Williams | 9 | 10.5 | 27 | 37 | 10 |
| 2003 | • New Orleans | DT Johnathan Sullivan | 6 | 1.0 | 39 | 32 | -7 |
| 2002 | Kansas City | DT Ryan Sims | 6 | .0 | 31 | 34 | 3 |
| 2002 | • Jacksonville | DT John Henderson | 9 | 6.5 | 43 | 36 | -7 |
—Ian Allan