Fantasy Index

Defensive Notes

July 05, 2025

Defenses shutting opponents down

Who you face similarly important to who you are

In a recent post about dominant defenses, a reader asked about points allowed. His league puts extra value on defenses that hold opponent to 10 points or fewer. I looked into it.

This information can be extracted from the search tools at Stathead at pro-football-reference.com. Here are the numbers from last year, and a few elements I thought were pretty interesting.

Of the 272 NFL games last year, a team was held to 10 points or fewer in 64 of them, so 23 percent. (I originally said 67, but that was incorrect; there were three games where both finished at 10 or fewer points.)

One surprise was the fact that about half of the teams finishing with 10 points or fewer did so at home (33 of the 67). You might think road teams would be a lot more likely to get shut down at the home stadium of a tough defense, but in fact it didn't seem to matter last year -- road teams were no more likely to be shut down than home clubs.

Less surprising, but valuable, is the reality that while certain defenses (Denver, the Chargers, Buffalo, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia) were better than others in this regard, turning the trick 3-5 times against opponents last year, matching a defense up with a lousy offense was perhaps just as valuable. If you did nothing more last season than match a defense up with the Browns or Giants, for instance, you'd have gained those extra points nearly a third of time. Each of those sorry offenses scored 10 or fewer points 5 times in 17 games. The Saints and the Panthers scored 10 or fewer four times, and that was also somewhat predictable (definitely in Carolina's case).

But some of the teams that were shut down 3-4 times it would have been hard to see coming. Dallas scored 10 or fewer points four times last year; unless you knew Dak Prescott was going to get hurt, you couldn't have foreseen that. So did Jacksonville. And the teams to score 10 or fewer three times were mostly surprising: Miami and San Francisco, top-3 scoring offenses in 2023, joined the Jets and Broncos in this regard.

A final note, not overly telling, but worth mentioning. Nearly half (30) of the 64 games occurred in either the first three weeks of the season, or the last three. This makes sense with the idea that early on, offenses are still shaking off the rust, and late you have more possibility of weather being a factor, or teams checking out mentally (the Saints), or resting players (Kansas City getting shut out in Week 18 a year ago).

Data is below, sorted by defense that held the opponents in check, with the ones who did it the most at the top.

DEFENSES HOLDING DOWN OPPONENTS (2024)
DefenseWeekH/AOpponentResult
Denver3ATampa BayW, 26-7
Denver4AN.Y. JetsW, 10-9
Denver7ANew OrleansW, 33-10
Denver11HAtlantaW, 38-6
Denver18HKansas CityW, 38-0
L.A. Chargers1HLas VegasW, 22-10
L.A. Chargers2ACarolinaW, 26-3
L.A. Chargers8HNew OrleansW, 26-8
L.A. Chargers9AClevelandW, 27-10
L.A. Chargers17ANew EnglandW, 40-7
Buffalo2AMiamiW, 31-10
Buffalo3HJacksonvilleW, 47-10
Buffalo7HTennesseeW, 34-10
Buffalo8ASeattleW, 31-10
Buffalo13HSan FranciscoW, 35-10
Baltimore4HBuffaloW, 35-10
Baltimore9HDenverW, 41-10
Baltimore17AHoustonW, 31-2
Baltimore18HClevelandW, 35-10
Detroit6ADallasW, 47-9
Detroit11HJacksonvilleW, 52-6
Detroit12AIndianapolisW, 24-6
Detroit18HMinnesotaW, 31-9
Green Bay2HIndianapolisW, 16-10
Green Bay12HSan FranciscoW, 38-10
Green Bay16HNew OrleansW, 34-0
Arizona2HL.A. RamsW, 41-10
Arizona9HChicagoW, 29-9
Arizona10HN.Y. JetsW, 31-6
Kansas City4AL.A. ChargersW, 17-10
Kansas City15AClevelandW, 21-7
Kansas City17APittsburghW, 29-10
L.A. Rams15ASan FranciscoW, 12-6
L.A. Rams16AN.Y. JetsW, 19-9
L.A. Rams17HArizonaW, 13-9
Minnesota1AN.Y. GiantsW, 28-6
Minnesota3HHoustonW, 34-7
Minnesota10AJacksonvilleW, 12-7
Philadelphia7AN.Y. GiantsW, 28-3
Philadelphia10ADallasW, 34-6
Philadelphia17HDallasW, 41-7
Pittsburgh1AAtlantaW, 18-10
Pittsburgh2ADenverW, 13-6
Pittsburgh3HL.A. ChargersW, 20-10
Seattle3HMiamiW, 24-3
Seattle12HArizonaW, 16-6
Seattle17AChicagoW, 6-3
Atlanta15ALas VegasW, 15-9
Atlanta16HN.Y. GiantsW, 34-7
Chicago5HCarolinaW, 36-10
Chicago17HSeattleL, 3-6
Cincinnati6AN.Y. GiantsW, 17-7
Cincinnati16HClevelandW, 24-6
Miami5ANew EnglandW, 15-10
Miami17AClevelandW, 20-3
N.Y. Jets3HNew EnglandW, 24-3
N.Y. Jets4HDenverL, 9-10
New England1ACincinnatiW, 16-10
New England10AChicagoW, 19-3
New Orleans1HCarolinaW, 47-10
Houston11ADallasW, 34-10
Indianapolis7HMiamiW, 16-10
Jacksonville14ATennesseeW, 10-6
Tampa Bay12AN.Y. GiantsW, 30-7
Tennessee14HJacksonvilleL, 6-10
Washington7HCarolinaW, 40-7
Las Vegas17ANew OrleansW, 25-10

--Andy Richardson

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