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Fourth-round running backs

Can Shipley, Wright make impact?

There are a couple of stories floating around about Will Shipley. The Eagles' fourth-round pick a year ago didn't get much run behind Saquon Barkley last year.

But it's a new season, and with the defending champs playing the long game (both with the season and with their franchise running back), it makes sense that Shipley would get a little more use this year. Enough to have value in fantasy leagues?

Out of curiosity, I looked at the first- and second-year numbers of all running backs selected in the fourth round over the past 10 years. Shipley was one of seven backs selected in the fourth round last season, so there are a lot of guys who will be looking to take a step up in Year 2.

As it happens, the best fourth-round rookie from the past decade was selected 2 picks before Shipley: Tampa Bay's Bucky Irving. He was the 15th-best fantasy back in PPR leagues last season -- one of only two fourth-rounders from the past decade to finish in the top 25. (Dameon Pierce was the other.) But seven others snuck into the top 30 and a couple others were in the top 40 as rookies, so it's a good round for productive running backs.

In year 2, six fourth-rounders from the last decade have finished in the top 40 at the position, and the negative for Shipley (and the other fourth-rounders who didn't do much a year ago) is that only one of them, James White, was a non-factor as a rookie. The other five (Devonta Freeman, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack and Michael Carter) all finished at least in the top 50 in their first seasons, so there was a little more there to get behind the idea of them being relevant backs in Year 2.

Table shows fourth-round running backs from the last 10 years, sorted by their ranking in PPR leagues in Year 2 of their career. (I ditched guys who were injured or otherwise out of the league in their second seasons.)

FOURTH-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, YEAR 1 AND 2 (2014-PRESENT)
DraftPlayerYear 1RkYear 2Rk
2014Devonta Freeman, Atl.248-30-225-2491056-73-578-141
2021Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E.606-14-123-5471040-69-421-68
2017Tarik Cohen, Chi.370-53-353-428444-71-725-811
2017Marlon Mack, Ind.358-21-225-448908-17-103-1020
2014James White, N.E.38-5-23-012856-40-410-639
2021Michael Carter, NYJ639-36-325-429402-41-288-339
2019Tony Pollard, Dall.455-15-107-353435-28-193-541
2018Nyheim Hines, Ind.314-63-425-428199-44-320-442
2017Jamaal Williams, G.B.556-25-262-634464-27-210-345
2021Chuba Hubbard, Car.612-25-174-636466-14-171-250
2016Devontae Booker, Den.612-31-265-529299-30-275-150
2023Roschon Johnson, Chi.352-34-209-247150-16-104-654
2022Dameon Pierce, Hou.939-30-165-525416-13-101-355
2018Chase Edmonds, Ari.208-20-103-272303-12-105-556
2022Zamir White, L.V.70-0-0-0132451-15-98-156
2015Jeremy Langford, Chi.537-22-279-730200-19-142-459
2019Benny Snell, Pitt.426-3-23-267368-10-61-461
2022Pierre Strong, N.E.100-7-42-194291-5-47-168
2020DeeJay Dallas, Sea.108-17-111-373138-21-133-271
2018Kalen Ballage, Mia.191-9-56-186135-14-63-371
2018Mark Walton, Cin.34-5-41-0109201-15-89-080
2017Wayne Gallman, NYG476-34-193-146176-14-89-182
2018Ito Smith, Atl.315-27-152-450106-11-87-185
2014KaDeem Carey, Chi.158-5-57-098159-3-19-386
2014Andre Williams, NYG721-18-130-727257-1-7-189
2022Isaiah Spiller, LAC41-3-13-012696-6-34-094
2015Mike Davis, S.F.58-7-38-011850-3-25-1110
2020Joshua Kelley, LAC354-23-148-258102-5-38-0112
2021Kene Nwangwu, Min.61-4-9-210514-2-21-1115
2016Tyler Ervin, Hou.3-3-18-014012-8-38-0115
2014Lorenzo Taliaferro, Balt.292-8-114-46547-5-29-1116
2017Samaje Perine, Was.603-22-182-24332-3-5-0124
2019Justice Hill, Balt.225-8-70-27760-5-20-0125
2015Javorius Allen, Balt.514-45-353-32934-3-15-0132
2015Jalston Fowler, Ten.13-5-44-21103-1-14-0148
2020Anthony McFarland, Pitt.113-6-54-01023-1-11-0153
2024Braelon Allen, NYJ334-19-148-351??
2024Bucky Irving, T.B.1122-47-392-815??
2024Isaac Guerendo, S.F.420-15-152-447??
2024Jaylen Wright, Mia.249-3-8-091??
2024Ray Davis, Buff.442-17-189-641??
2024Sione Vaki, Det.14-3-37-0112??
2024Will Shipley, Phil.82-4-35-0104??

None of this is necessarily a knock on Shipley, or the other fourth-rounders stuck behind stars or on crowded depth charts. Guys like Braelon Allen, Ray Davis and Isaac Guerendo are intriguing this year, and Jaylen Wright might also be a factor in Miami.

But at least based on the past decade, your odds of doing much in Year 2 are a lot better if you did well in Year 1. For that reason, Davis (who was the 41st-best PPR back last year), Guerendo (47th) and Allen (51st) look likelier to hit this season than Shipley.

--Andy Richardson

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