Last season constituted a major about-face for passing touchdown trends leaguewide, with five QBs in particular leading the charge. Unfortunately, history suggests their 2024 seasons will be tough acts for them to follow.
The 2024 NFL campaign gave us three 40-touchdown passers for the first time since 2020 and just the third time in league history (2011), with Jared Goff and Sam Darnold chipping in 37 and 35 apiece for good measure, respectively. This was the tentpole that drove a robust reversal of a sharp downward trend post-2020: After the 2018 and 2020 seasons each gave us 4.8 passing TD% rates (the percent of total pass attempts that resulted in touchdowns) that were the highest the league had seen in the Super Bowl era, those numbers cooled to 4.5, 4.2, and 4.1 percent in the following seasons.
But if passing touchdowns were supposed to be out of fashion, Lamar Jackson didn't get the memo. Jackson posted a blistering 8.6 TD% in 2024, a worthy sequel to the absurd 9.0 percent he logged in his sublime 2019. Baker Mayfield was also no slouch, piling up a career-best 41 touchdowns through the air on a career-best 7.2 percent touchdown rate. Goff (6.9), Joe Burrow (6.6), and Darnold (6.4) also ripped off career-best passing TD% rates, leading the way on a 4.5 percent leaguewide rebound in TD% rate.
As fun as their seasons were to watch in both fantasy and reality, history is positively gloomy on the chances of any of them running it back. Below are the top single season TD% rates of all NFL QBs since 2009; that's the year we saw TD rates leaguewide stabilize above 4.0 percent for good, so I figured that was a sensible backstop here. Italics for the rates from seasons where the guy only played a handful of games that year, either because of injury or starting the season as a backup.
| Top Passing TD% Rates Since 2009 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Name | TD% | Prev Best | Next Year |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | 9.1 | 9.0 | 7.1 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | 9.0 | 5.9 | 7.1 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | 9.0 | 3.5 | 6.9 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | 8.6 | N/A | 5.4 |
| 2018 | Russell Wilson | 8.6 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| 2024 | Lamar Jackson | 8.6 | 9.0 | ? |
| 2013 | Nick Foles | 8.5 | 2.3 | 4.2 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | 8.3 | 9.9(!) | 6.5 |
| 2014 | Tony Romo | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill | 7.7 | 6.2 | 6.9 |
| 2017 | Carson Wentz | 7.5 | 2.6 | 5.2 |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | 7.3 | 8.7 | 6.4 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.4 |
| 2020 | Russell Wilson | 7.2 | 8.6 | 6.3 |
| 2024 | Baker Mayfield | 7.2 | 5.6 | ? |
| 2012 | Aaron Rodgers | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.9 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | 7.1 | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| 2015 | Russell Wilson | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.8 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | 7.1 | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| 2019 | Drew Brees | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.2 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | 7.0 | 9.1 | 4.8 |
| 2023 | Brock Purdy | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.4 |
| 2018 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | Lamar Jackson | 6.9 | 9.0 | 4.2 |
| 2020 | Ryan Tannehill | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | Jared Goff | 6.9 | 5.9 | ? |
| 2020 | Kirk Cousins | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| 2021 | Matt Stafford | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.3 |
I knew history would be against these guys, but not to this extent: Of all the quarterbacks to clock a TD% over 6.8 since 2009, none of them came all that close to replicating their touchdown efficiency in the following season; only five of them managed to avoid a drop of a full 1.0 percent or greater (Ryan Tannehill in 2020, Tom Brady in 2011, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins in 2021, and Drew Brees in each of 2012 and his farewell 2020). The average regression was a touch under 2.3 percent; a 2.3 percent regression for Lamar Jackson and/or Baker Mayfield would knock their matching 41 touchdowns from last year down to 30 and 28 scores, respectively. Goff's 37 touchdowns suddenly become 25 when hit with a 2.3% duty.
But there are some positives to take away here. The most obvious one is that Ryan Tannehill is on this list at all, let alone twice. While Tannehill had himself a nice second act in Nashville, let's not pretend the presence of all-world future Canton inductee Derrick Henry wasn't the driving force behind those salad days (a young A.J. Brown also didn't hurt). Lamar Jackson still enjoys proximity to him at something close to the height of Henry's powers; the combined presence of those two superstars should flatten the curve on whatever regression is likely incoming for Jackson.
My other takeaway was that, unsurprisingly, being either a volume passer or in an established offense was good insurance against the harshest regressions. Brady, Russell Wilson and Brees enjoyed some of the softest landings in their follow-up seasons, and all enjoyed high levels of year over year stability. Mayfield and Goff did both lose their offensive coordinators to this year's head coaching carousel, but the replacements have vowed continuity and were both on staff in 2024 - that may be enough to insulate those two from the worst of the mean regression.
Nevertheless, if I wind up with hardly any of Jackson, Mayfield, Goff or Burrow on my redraft teams next month I won't be surprised. If I'm betting big on any of them beating the odds, it will likely come in the form of drafting receivers that catch passes from them.
—Luke Wilson