What are we supposed to make of rookie tight ends nowadays? Two years in a row, the most productive player in the league at the position has been a rookie. But previously, the production for first-year tight ends tended to be pretty lousy.
No issues at all, of course, recently. Brock Bowers blew the roof off expectations last year, catching 112 passes for 1,194 yards. Just 5 TDs, but nobody who picked Bowers was unhappy. And Sam LaPorta the previous year caught 86 passes and 10 touchdowns.
Setting those two aside, however, there have been way more misses than hits with tight ends. In the last 15 years, there have been 12 others selected with first-round picks. Only two finished with top-10 numbers; Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts. (While Pitts finished that season with 1,026 yards, I would argue he was a modest choice – just one touchdown, and I remember one big game at Wembley but a lot more quiet weeks).
Two other first rounders in the last 15 years at least finished with top-15 numbers – Noah Frant and Dalton Kincaid. (Kincaid was kind of a Pitts-type guy – 73 catches but only 2 TDs.)
Which brings up to this year’s options: Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren. With both being dropped into lesser statistical situations, my feeling is they’re more likely to miss rather than hit. For the 2025 season, I wouldn’t pick either with the expectation of getting top-15 tight end numbers.
Ben Johnson, of course, was involved in that big LaPorta season, but I don’t think there’s much chance of the same kind of stats happening right away with Loveland. Different team and personnel. (In the photo, you’re seeing Loveland and Johnson).
| FIRST-ROUND TIGHT ENDS (last 15 yrs) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2010 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 21 | 52 | 471 | 9.1 | 4 | 125.1 | 16 |
| 2013 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 21 | 39 | 445 | 11.4 | 2 | 95.5 | 26 |
| 2014 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 10 | 25 | 248 | 9.9 | 1 | 55.8 | 40 |
| 2017 | • Evan Engram, NYG | 23 | 64 | 722 | 11.3 | 6 | 173.6 | 5 |
| 2017 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 19 | 26 | 432 | 16.6 | 6 | 105.2 | 20 |
| 2017 | David Njoku, Cle. | 29 | 32 | 386 | 12.1 | 4 | 94.7 | 24 |
| 2018 | Hayden Hurst, Balt. | 25 | 13 | 163 | 12.5 | 1 | 35.3 | 59 |
| 2019 | Noah Fant, Den. | 20 | 40 | 562 | 14.1 | 3 | 113.0 | 15 |
| 2019 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 8 | 32 | 367 | 11.5 | 2 | 80.7 | 31 |
| 2021 | • Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 4 | 68 | 1,026 | 15.1 | 1 | 176.6 | 6 |
| 2023 | Dalton Kincaid, Buff. | 25 | 73 | 673 | 9.2 | 2 | 152.3 | 11 |
| 2024 | • Brock Bowers, L.V. | 13 | 112 | 1,194 | 10.7 | 5 | 262.7 | 1 |
| 2025 | Colston Loveland, Chi. | 10 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | Tyler Warren, Ind. | 14 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
The odds really decline with second-round tight ends. There have been 27 picked in the second round in the last 15 years, and LaPorta is the only one who’s finished with top-10 numbers. Only two others (Rob Gronkowski and Pat Freiermuth have ranked higher than 18th in PPR leagues in their first season).
Some of these tight ends have gotten going in future years – Trey McBride, Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet – but the rookie numbers have tended to be lean.
Three selected in the second round this year – Mason Taylor to the Jets, and Terrance Ferguson and Elijah Arroyo both headed to the NFC West. Taylor looks like a sure 17-game starter, putting him in play for top-20 numbers, but I don’t think there’s much upside.
| SECOND-ROUND TIGHT ENDS (last 15 yrs) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 42 | 42 | 546 | 13.0 | 10 | 156.6 | 11 |
| 2011 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 43 | 26 | 249 | 9.6 | 3 | 68.9 | 34 |
| 2011 | Lance Kendricks, St.L. | 47 | 28 | 352 | 12.6 | 0 | 62.4 | 37 |
| 2012 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 34 | 26 | 281 | 10.8 | 2 | 66.1 | 38 |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 35 | 36 | 469 | 13.0 | 4 | 106.9 | 23 |
| 2013 | Gavin Escobar, Dall. | 47 | 9 | 134 | 14.9 | 2 | 34.4 | 54 |
| 2013 | Vance McDonald, S.F. | 55 | 8 | 119 | 14.9 | 0 | 19.9 | 62 |
| 2014 | Jace Amaro, NYJ | 49 | 38 | 345 | 9.1 | 2 | 84.5 | 24 |
| 2014 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B. | 38 | 21 | 221 | 10.5 | 2 | 55.1 | 41 |
| 2014 | Troy Niklas, Ari. | 52 | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 | 6.8 | 93 |
| 2015 | Maxx Williams, Balt. | 55 | 32 | 268 | 8.4 | 1 | 64.8 | 39 |
| 2016 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 35 | 36 | 478 | 13.3 | 8 | 131.8 | 18 |
| 2017 | Gerald Everett, LAR | 44 | 16 | 244 | 15.3 | 2 | 53.7 | 42 |
| 2017 | Adam Shaheen, Chi. | 45 | 12 | 127 | 10.6 | 3 | 42.7 | 49 |
| 2018 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 49 | 33 | 334 | 10.1 | 4 | 90.4 | 20 |
| 2018 | Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 42 | 22 | 202 | 9.2 | 0 | 42.2 | 49 |
| 2019 | Irv Smith, Min. | 50 | 36 | 311 | 8.6 | 2 | 79.1 | 33 |
| 2019 | Drew Sample, Cin. | 52 | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 | 8.0 | 92 |
| 2020 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | 43 | 28 | 243 | 8.7 | 2 | 64.0 | 42 |
| 2021 | Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 55 | 60 | 497 | 8.3 | 7 | 153.7 | 13 |
| 2022 | Trey McBride, Ari. | 55 | 29 | 265 | 9.1 | 1 | 61.5 | 40 |
| 2023 | • Sam LaPorta, Det. | 34 | 86 | 889 | 10.3 | 10 | 239.3 | 1 |
| 2023 | Luke Musgrave, G.B. | 42 | 34 | 352 | 10.4 | 1 | 75.2 | 31 |
| 2023 | Michael Mayer, L.V. | 35 | 27 | 304 | 11.3 | 2 | 71.4 | 35 |
| 2023 | Luke Schoonmaker, Dall. | 58 | 8 | 65 | 8.1 | 2 | 26.5 | 67 |
| 2023 | Brenton Strange, Jac. | 61 | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 | 14.5 | 79 |
| 2024 | Ben Sinnott, Was. | 53 | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 1 | 13.8 | 82 |
| 2025 | Mason Taylor, NYJ | 42 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | Terrance Ferguson, LAR | 46 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | Elijah Arroyo, Sea. | 50 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan