Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers both put up huge numbers last year; they’ll go early in drafts. But they’re both fighting the dynamic of playing for teams with lesser passing offenses. Typically, the most prolific pass catchers come from the more productive offenses.
Since 2002, for example, no wide receiver from a bottom-5 passing offense has been able to finish with top-5 passing numbers. Nabers came close last year; he was the 6th-best wide receiver, despite playing for the team with the worst passing offense. (The Giants passed for more yards than three teams but had only 15 TD passes – using 1 point for every 10 yards and 6 points for TD, they were last.)
In the past 20 years, 100 wide receivers have finished with top-5 numbers (PPR scoring). Only two of those guys came from teams with bottom-10 passing stats – Thomas and 2012 Brandon Marshall.
When you’re investing substantial resources in a pass catcher, it’s more palatable when he’s working in a more dynamic offense.
When drafting, of course, you don’t have the benefit of knowing which teams will finish with bottom-5 numbers. You have to cobble together your own expectations, based on past performance, health, coaching and other factors. Teams change.
If we rely simply on the previous year’s performance, things get little more palatable. Of the last 100 receivers to finish with top-5 numbers (PPR scoring), 17 came from teams that put up bottom-10 numbers the previous years (tagged with dots), and four came from teams with bottom-5 passing offenses (double dots).
Of these current two, Thomas seems to be in the better situation, with some chance Liam Coen sparks the Jaguars. And they have the better quarterback. With the Giants, on the other hand, Brian Daboll has demonstrated that he’s willing to pump an insane number of targets in Nabers’ direction, making it seem at least possible that Nabers could be a unicorn who finishes with top-5 receiving numbers while playing on a team with bottom-5 passing stats.
I like both of these former college teammates. But given their situations, they’re probably may more likely to finish behind about five other wide receivers, rather than pushing for the top spot.
In the chart below, the final two columns merit some explanation. The “team” column (“Tm”) shows the NFL team’s rank in passing production, using 6 for TD passes and 1 for every 10 passing yards – a number between 1 and 32. There are only 10 coming from bottom-10 offenses, and I’ve got them in bold.
The final column (“Bef”, or before) shows where the NFL team ranked in the previous season. There are 17 from the bottom 10 (tagged with a dot) and four from the bottom 5 (2 dots).
| TOP-5 WIDE RECEIVERS (last 20 years) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Tm | Bef |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 145 | 1,947 | 16 | 439.5 | 1 | 3 | 21 |
| 2023 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 135 | 1,749 | 12 | 407.2 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| 2024 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 127 | 1,708 | 17 | 403.0 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 2015 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 136 | 1,834 | 10 | 392.2 | 1 | 8 | 3 |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 129 | 1,698 | 13 | 391.1 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2007 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 98 | 1,493 | 23 | 385.3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 2023 | Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 119 | 1,799 | 13 | 378.4 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 2015 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 136 | 1,871 | 8 | 377.1 | 2 | 15 | 6 |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 149 | 1,725 | 9 | 374.6 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 128 | 1,809 | 8 | 369.0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 96 | 1,681 | 16 | 361.2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 2020 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 115 | 1,374 | 18 | 360.4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 122 | 1,964 | 5 | 348.4 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 2022 | Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 119 | 1,710 | 7 | 347.2 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 123 | 1,553 | 11 | 344.3 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 2021 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 77 | 1,405 | 6 | 343.2 | 3 | 12 | 14 |
| 2015 | •• Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 109 | 1,502 | 14 | 343.2 | 3 | 10 | 31 |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 111 | 1,619 | 11 | 340.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2005 | Steve Smith Sr., Car. | 103 | 1,563 | 12 | 339.8 | 1 | 15 | 8 |
| 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 115 | 1,572 | 11 | 337.5 | 1 | 17 | 14 |
| 2011 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 122 | 1,569 | 9 | 335.9 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 2022 | Davante Adams, L.V. | 100 | 1,516 | 14 | 335.5 | 3 | 11 | 11 |
| 2012 | • Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 118 | 1,508 | 11 | 334.6 | 2 | 27 | 24 |
| 2018 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 87 | 1,479 | 12 | 334.0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 2023 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 119 | 1,515 | 10 | 332.9 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 108 | 1,616 | 10 | 332.8 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| 2015 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 111 | 1,521 | 11 | 331.1 | 4 | 16 | 20 |
| 2018 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 113 | 1,677 | 8 | 329.9 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 2018 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 111 | 1,386 | 13 | 329.6 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 2020 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 87 | 1,276 | 15 | 328.9 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 2020 | • Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 127 | 1,535 | 8 | 328.6 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 98 | 1,519 | 13 | 327.9 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 2018 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 104 | 1,297 | 15 | 323.7 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 2008 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 115 | 1,575 | 8 | 322.5 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 96 | 1,450 | 13 | 319.3 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 92 | 1,430 | 14 | 319.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2024 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 115 | 1,263 | 12 | 318.3 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 2010 | Roddy White, Atl. | 115 | 1,389 | 10 | 318.2 | 1 | 14 | 14 |
| 2024 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 103 | 1,533 | 10 | 317.7 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 2022 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 108 | 1,429 | 11 | 316.6 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 88 | 1,320 | 16 | 316.0 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| 2007 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 104 | 1,510 | 10 | 315.4 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 2013 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 110 | 1,499 | 8 | 315.1 | 2 | 11 | 11 |
| 2009 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 101 | 1,569 | 9 | 314.9 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2013 | • Josh Gordon, Cle. | 87 | 1,646 | 9 | 314.4 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 2017 | •• DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 96 | 1,378 | 13 | 311.8 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 96 | 1,431 | 12 | 311.1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2017 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 101 | 1,533 | 9 | 310.3 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 2005 | • Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 103 | 1,409 | 10 | 308.0 | 2 | 3 | 27 |
| 2016 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 106 | 1,284 | 12 | 307.3 | 1 | 8 | 8 |
| 2007 | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 81 | 1,355 | 15 | 307.0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 97 | 1,257 | 14 | 306.7 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 2013 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 98 | 1,426 | 11 | 306.6 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 2021 | • Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 2013 | • Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 100 | 1,295 | 12 | 305.5 | 5 | 5 | 27 |
| 2007 | • Braylon Edwards, Cle. | 80 | 1,289 | 16 | 304.9 | 4 | 9 | 25 |
| 2016 | • Mike Evans, T.B. | 96 | 1,321 | 12 | 304.1 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 2012 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 92 | 1,382 | 12 | 303.7 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 2022 | •• A.J. Brown, Phi. | 88 | 1,496 | 11 | 303.6 | 5 | 10 | 28 |
| 2006 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 95 | 1,366 | 12 | 303.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 97 | 1,350 | 11 | 301.8 | 4 | 13 | 21 |
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 101 | 1,404 | 9 | 301.8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2007 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 100 | 1,409 | 10 | 300.9 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 2016 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 101 | 1,367 | 10 | 298.6 | 4 | 14 | 4 |
| 2023 | • Puka Nacua, LAR | 105 | 1,486 | 6 | 298.5 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 2005 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 97 | 1,432 | 9 | 297.5 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 2012 | •• Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 94 | 1,434 | 10 | 297.4 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 2023 | A.J. Brown, Phi. | 106 | 1,456 | 7 | 293.6 | 5 | 18 | 10 |
| 2020 | • DeAndre Hopkins, Ari. | 115 | 1,407 | 6 | 291.8 | 4 | 16 | 25 |
| 2005 | • Anquan Boldin, Ari. | 102 | 1,402 | 7 | 290.7 | 4 | 3 | 27 |
| 2011 | Victor Cruz, NYG | 82 | 1,536 | 9 | 289.9 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 2009 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 83 | 1,264 | 13 | 289.4 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 2005 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 102 | 1,331 | 9 | 289.3 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 2009 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 100 | 1,264 | 10 | 286.4 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2010 | Brandon Lloyd, Den. | 77 | 1,448 | 11 | 286.0 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 2009 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 123 | 1,348 | 4 | 285.4 | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2008 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 78 | 1,331 | 12 | 285.0 | 3 | 22 | 13 |
| 2011 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 68 | 1,263 | 15 | 284.3 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 2009 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 97 | 1,092 | 13 | 284.2 | 5 | 12 | 2 |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 102 | 1,393 | 6 | 284.2 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2024 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 87 | 1,282 | 10 | 284.0 | 4 | 27 | 15 |
| 2020 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 90 | 1,374 | 9 | 283.5 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 2006 | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 85 | 1,180 | 13 | 283.0 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 2010 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 111 | 1,355 | 6 | 282.5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2024 | • Drake London, Atl. | 100 | 1,271 | 9 | 280.8 | 5 | 14 | 24 |
| 2010 | • Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 72 | 1,162 | 15 | 278.6 | 4 | 20 | 24 |
| 2011 | Roddy White, Atl. | 100 | 1,296 | 8 | 277.6 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 2019 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 86 | 1,333 | 9 | 276.1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2010 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 76 | 1,265 | 12 | 274.4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 2019 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 99 | 1,394 | 6 | 274.1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 2016 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 91 | 1,448 | 6 | 273.8 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 2006 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 86 | 1,310 | 9 | 273.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 93 | 1,188 | 10 | 271.8 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 2006 | Donald Driver, G.B. | 92 | 1,295 | 8 | 271.1 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| 2019 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 104 | 1,165 | 7 | 270.6 | 4 | 12 | 17 |
| 2019 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 94 | 1,161 | 10 | 270.5 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 2008 | Roddy White, Atl. | 88 | 1,382 | 7 | 268.6 | 4 | 21 | 21 |
| 2008 | Brandon Marshall, Den. | 104 | 1,265 | 6 | 266.1 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| 2017 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 112 | 987 | 9 | 264.0 | 4 | 16 | 18 |
| 2017 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 109 | 1,156 | 6 | 263.7 | 5 | 15 | 9 |
—Ian Allan