We've got actual football to talk about now, with six teams in action last night. Lots of noteworthy developments (Keaton Mitchell, Colts quarterbacks, the Bengals offense), but I was most struck by rookie tight end Tyler Warren.
The Colts haven't had a notable tight end in years, not throwing that way a lot and tending to involve multiple players at the position when they do. But Warren hauled in four of the team's first five completed passes last night (one erased by a penalty) and was the intended target on at least one of the sacks, too. I'm feeling good this morning about taking him in a rookie draft a few months back, and wish I'd selected him in an ongoing draft I'm in now, too. The Colts might be bad this year, but Warren looks like he'll be a significant part of what good there is.
Warren put up huge numbers at Penn State last year, catching 104 balls for 1,233 yards and 8 TDs, plus 4 more TDs as a runner. You'd think he was the most productive college tight end last year, but you'd be mistaken.
Bowling Green's Harold Fannin, who the Browns selected in the third round, caught 117 passes for 1,555 yards, both NCAA records for the position, with 10 touchdowns. Not a better tight end prospect than the two first-rounders (Warren and Chicago's Colston Loveland), but a guy who certainly merits watching this preseason.
It's rare for college tight ends to catch anywhere near that many passes. Since 2000, using the search tools at college-football-reference, I found only 16 tight ends to catch even 75 passes in a season. I wondered how many of those players have turned into good pros.
Not many. Of those 16 tight ends, only two have had a top-10 fantasy season (PPR) in the NFL. Dennis Pitta a few years back, and also our favorite tight end this year, Trey McBride.
Table shows those 75-catch college tight ends, the ones who played in the NFL anyway, along with stats and PPR rank from their best professional seasons.
| COLLEGE TIGHT ENDS, 75-PLUS CATCHES, 2000-PRESENT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Season | School | Rec | Yds | TD | Best | Rk |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 2024 | Bowling Green | 117 | 1555 | 10 | ? | ? |
| Tyler Warren | 2024 | Penn State | 104 | 1233 | 8 | ? | ? |
| Trey McBride | 2021 | Colorado State | 90 | 1121 | 1 | 111-1146-4 | 2 |
| Jace Amaro | 2013 | Texas Tech | 106 | 1352 | 7 | 38-345-2 | 24 |
| Michael Egnew | 2010 | Missouri | 90 | 762 | 5 | 0-0-0 | 999 |
| Chase Coffman | 2008 | Missouri | 90 | 987 | 10 | 8-71-1 | 71 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2008 | BYU | 83 | 1083 | 6 | 86-729-2 | 8 |
| James Casey | 2008 | Rice | 111 | 1329 | 13 | 34-330-3 | 32 |
| Martin Rucker | 2007 | Missouri | 84 | 834 | 8 | 2-17-0 | 91 |
| Travis Beckum | 2007 | Wisconsin | 75 | 982 | 6 | 13-116-2 | 48 |
| Garrett Mills | 2005 | Tulsa | 87 | 1235 | 9 | 5-65-0 | 73 |
Granted, the table shows that merely having a big college season at some point doesn't mean a lot on its own. I remember being interested in Rucker, Coffman and Amaro, none of whom panned out in the NFL.
But two years in a row, the most productive tight end in the league has been a rookie: Sam LaPorta, and Brock Bowers. The odds continue to be against players at the position making a big first-year impact, but those recent examples show it does happen. And with Warren quickly looking like he's going to be a big part of the offense as a rookie, I'm thinking there's a chance he'll beat the odds and be the next McBride, rather than the next Amaro.
--Andy Richardson